📊 Strategy for Collegiate Athletics, not just data. 🎯 Who to sign. What to pay. Competitive Advantages. All Custom Built for You. 📩 upside@cfbquant.com
NYC - Formerly Ark. Quant
Joined December 2024
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Ever wondered the value-add of a coach versus talent?
/ New Series - Coach Pay vs. NIL for Proven Talent: WR Coach Edition (let us know what position you want next!)
Best buy here is situational, but predictable ⬇️
/ Bottom-third-graded WR coach to average: 110-135 yds, +$60K
/ Median WR to top-10% WR: 100-130 yds, +$450K
/ Average-graded WR coach to top third: 0-55 yds, +$65K
Where does your $500K go?
How we graded: apples-to-apples talent adjusted, accounted for surrounding talent, continuity of OC-OL-QB, and much more.
Highest graded in 2026: Simmons (USC), Stepp (Illinois), Whitted (Boise State), Shanahan (Indiana), Cummings (Washington), Wade (Arizona). Board in the replies.
Pay: FootballScoop, ESPN GM survey
#CFB #FightOn #Illini #BleedBlue #IUFB #PurpleReign #BearDown
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/ Simmons, USC: receivers beat projection in 8 of 11 seasons
/ Stepp, Illinois: 8 of 11, at 4 schools
/ Whitted, Boise State: 6 of 9
Your team's WR room:
1. cfbquant.com, tap Teams, then Position groups
2. Season 2026
3. Sort the WR room by rank change
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SEC Giveaways, Penalties & Takeaways: Last 2 vs. Wks 2-8 ⬇️
* Oklahoma / 14 giveaways in 6 games Wks 2-8. 0 in the last 2
* Arkansas / 131st last two games. 25th wk2-8.
* Georgia / last 2: 1 giveaway, 7 penalties, 6 takeaways
Which swing holds?
#CFB #BoomerSooner #WPS #GoDawgs
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Every FBS team's giveaways, takeaways and penalties, any stretch of weeks ⬇️
cfbquant.com → Charts → pick the stat → set the weeks
Follow @cfbquant for the weekly numbers
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Full top 25 ⬇️ record vs winning teams + top-25 units faced
Check your team: cfbquant.com
1. Tap Charts
2. Scroll to the table under the chart
3. T25 / T50 = top-25 and top-50 opponents faced
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CFB Quant retweeted
SEC penalties per game by flag type through Week 11.
Vanderbilt leads the SEC with 8.4 penalties per game, followed by Auburn (7.7) and Ole Miss (7.6).
Florida ranks 4th (7.4), with holding and personal/unsportsmanlike penalties accounting for 52% of its total.
CFB Quant retweeted
Every FBS head-coaching hire since 1971: 984 of them. One thing predicts how they turn out: Year 1.
Program better by Years 3–4:
• Year 1 fell from previous year: 25%
• Year 1 rose: 84%
Hot names? No better than other sitting head coaches. Rebuilds? About 1 in 8 work. 🧵
ALT Summary card. Year one is the tell: every FBS head-coaching hire, 1971–2021 (984). Share whose program was better in years 3–4 than the season before the coach arrived, by SRS: year one fell 10+ percentile points, 25% (329 hires); flat, 66% (380); rose 10+, 84% (275). 12% of bad year ones turned into a clearly better program. Hot names 59% vs. 64% for other sitting head coaches. Four of five measures agree strongly. Year-one swings are 17% bigger since 2021. When year one goes backward, it usually stays backward.
24-Team CFP, Run on the Last 2 Seasons
4-team CFP (2014-23): zero 2-loss teams ⬇️
2025 / 9-3 Texas, Michigan + USC in. 8-4 Iowa too
2024 / 9-3 Bama + Ole Miss, 10-3 Clemson in
Both years / 19 teams with 3+ losses in
#CFB #HookEm #GoBlue #FightOn #Hawkeyes #RollTide #HottyToddy
ALT Chart of playoff teams by losses at selection. 4-team era (2014-23, 40 teams): 16 with 0 losses, 24 with 1. 12-team actual (2024-25, 24 teams): 2 with 0, 10 with 1, 10 with 2, 2 with 3. 24-team field using each year's final CFP top 24 (48 teams): 2 with 0, 11 with 1, 16 with 2, 18 with 3, 1 with 4 (Iowa 8-4). In the field with 3+ losses, 2024: Alabama 9-3, Ole Miss 9-3, South Carolina 9-3, Clemson 10-3, Iowa State 10-3, Missouri 9-3, Illinois 9-3, Syracuse 9-3, Colorado 9-3, UNLV 10-3. 2025: Alabama 10-3, Texas 9-3, USC 9-3, Arizona 9-3, Michigan 9-3, Virginia 10-3, Houston 9-3, Georgia Tech 9-3, Iowa 8-4. First team out: 10-2 Memphis (2024), 11-2 North Texas (2025). Source: CFP selection committee final rankings.
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Check this year's bubble teams yourself ⬇️
cfbquant.com
1. Tap Charts
2. Scroll to the table under the chart
3. T25 / T50 = top-25 and top-50 opponents faced
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Check this year's bubble teams yourself ⬇️
cfbquant.com
1. Tap Charts
2. Scroll to the table under the chart
3. T25 / T50 = top-25 and top-50 opponents faced
124
Check this year's bubble teams yourself ⬇️
cfbquant.com
1. Tap Charts
2. Scroll to the table under the chart
3. T25 / T50 = top-25 and top-50 opponents faced
140
CFB Quant retweeted
SEC defenses ranked by how often they allow opposing players to have their best game of the season.
This focuses on each opponent’s leading QB, RB, and top 3 receivers to capture meaningful performances rather than inflated totals from backups and low-usage players.
CFB Quant retweeted
Florida has the SEC’s most unbalanced offense and defense on a game-by-game basis.
After adjusting for opponents, the gap averages 1.52 points per drive - the SEC’s largest, regardless of which side performs better.
Offense was better in 5 of 8 games; defense was better in the other 3 games. They can’t seem to both perform well on the same day.
QB Play vs. Strength of Pass Defenses Faced, wk1-10 2026 (P4 + ND ranks)
✅ Tested & proven: • USC: #2 QB play vs. the #1 schedule (5 Top 25 pass Ds faced) • LSU, Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama: top-20 QB play vs. top-20 schedules
⚠️ Strong numbers, soft schedules: • Miami: #1 QB play, 1 Top 25 pass D faced • Wake Forest: #4, 0 faced • Houston (#7), Louisville (#15)
❄️ Tested & struggling: • Texas A&M: #67 QB play vs. the #24 schedule • Michigan State: #59 vs. #3 (5 Top 25 faced) • Michigan, Minnesota
🔜 3 games left: Ohio State (#6 QB play) gets 3 Top 25 pass Ds after the #36 schedule so far. So do Texas A&M, Michigan, Minnesota.
/ Georgia and Alabama get none
Faced + remaining table 🧵👇
#CFB #CollegeFootball #FightOn #GeauxTigers #GoCanes #GigEm #GoBucks
QB EPA/dropback vs. pass defenses faced & remaining (national ranks, all 138 FBS · thru Wk 10)
🎯 TESTED & PROVEN
• USC: #2 vs. the #1 schedule (5 Top 25 faced, 2 left)
• LSU: #4 vs. #11 (4 faced, 2 left)
• Florida: #12 vs. #18 (2 faced, 1 left)
• Ole Miss: #18 vs. #8 (2 faced, 1 left)
• Alabama: #25 vs. #7 (3 faced, 0 left)
🧁 STRONG NUMBERS, SOFT SCHEDULES
• Miami: #1 vs. #44 (1 faced, 1 left)
• Wake Forest: #6 vs. #124 (0 faced, 0 left)
• Louisville: #19 vs. #108 (0 faced, 1 left)
📉 STRUGGLING AGAINST GAUNTLETS
• Texas A&M, Michigan State, Michigan, Minnesota: left side of the chart
⏳ 3 Top 25 pass Ds left: Ohio State, Texas A&M, Michigan, Minnesota
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Is your QB tested or padded? 👇
1️⃣ cfbquant.com/charts/qb-vs-pa…
2️⃣ Find your team's logo. Top right = tested & proven
3️⃣ Scroll to the table. Under LEFT, tap T25 to sort by Top 25 pass Ds still on the schedule
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Defense Success vs. Strength of Offenses Faced, wk1-10 2026 (P4 + ND ranks)
✅ Tested & holding (top-20 D vs. a top-20 schedule): Tennessee, Alabama, Texas, Oregon, LSU, Oklahoma, Georgia, Kentucky. Oregon has seen 6 Top 25 offenses, most in FBS
⚠️ Strong numbers, soft schedules: • UCLA: #6 D vs. the #67 schedule, 0 Top 25 offenses faced. 2 of its last 3 are • Baylor: #13, 0 faced • Michigan: #10, 1 faced
❄️ Tested & struggling: • Stanford: #67 D vs. the #9 schedule • Purdue: #63 vs. #15 • Florida State, Iowa State
🔜 3 games left: Kentucky is the only team with 3 Top 25 offenses left. Alabama and Oregon have none.
Faced + remaining table 🧵👇
#CFB #CollegeFootball #RollTide #GoDucks #GBO #HookEm #GoBruins
Defense EPA/play allowed vs. offenses faced & remaining (national ranks, all 138 FBS · thru Wk 10)
🎯 Tested & holding
• Alabama: #3 vs. the #2 schedule (4 Top 25 offenses faced, 0 left)
• Oregon: #8 vs. #1 (6 faced, 0 left)
• Texas: #5 vs. #3 (4 faced, 1 left)
• Tennessee: #1 vs. #16 (3 faced, 1 left)
• LSU: #9 vs. #14 (3 faced, 0 left)
• Oklahoma: #16 vs. #7 (4 faced, 2 left)
• Georgia: #21 vs. #20 (3 faced, 2 left)
• Kentucky: #23 vs. #11 (3 faced, 3 left)
🧁 Strong numbers, soft schedules
• UCLA: #6 vs. #115 (0 faced, 2 left)
• Baylor: #14 vs. #95 (0 faced, 1 left)
• Michigan: #10 vs. #78 (1 faced, 1 left)
⏳ Toughest left: Boston College, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, SMU, Duke, Kentucky
November separates tested defenses from padded ones. Where's yours? 👇
1️⃣ cfbquant.com/charts/defense-…
2️⃣ Find your team's logo. Top right = tested & proven
3️⃣ Scroll to the table. Under LEFT, tap T25 to sort by Top 25 offenses still on the schedule
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