Rafe Fletcher

Few sobering thoughts heard today on Indonesia - Singapore relations: 1) Jakarta traditionally leaned into economic nationalism in good times & eased off in bad. Now it's doing so with rupiah at record lows & JCI one of 26's worst performers. Risks a downward spiral. 2) Singapore being cast as proxy enemy - gas cuts & blamed for MSCI downgrade. 3) Ethnic sentiment around Chinese-majority opposition could revive something like 1998 currency crisis riots against Chinese Indonesians. Prabowo's ratings have already fallen from 80 to 45%. If re-election prospects look dim as we move towards 2029, he could play on such desperation again.

Jensen Huang is the best spokesperson for Trump’s AI bull narrative. Can talk in a normal and folksy way about why it will benefit America. Will be a big loss if he goes when Dems already seizing on anti-AI feeling.

SIA quadruples quarterly profit. But much of gain from Air India losing less. Because it flew less, not any great turnaround story. Air India still a burden on SIA - seen as premium in Indian domestic mkt that thrives on low fares & ramshackle by discerning intl fliers.

The great thing about honey pots is that they appeal to two parts of the male ego: 1) A pretty girl likes you 2) You're powerful enough to spy on

Man Utd has been terrific biz for Glazers. They've realised 5x their initial capital plus 12x in valuation. Fans will hate them more if they find cash for Al-Ittihad. But w. PIF downgrading sport in 26-30 strategy, a good bet on unloved asset in league where rev and viewers⬆️

Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim blows investment talks as he compares Taiwan to a breakaway Malaysian state. Malaysia needs delicate diplomacy to make its data centre economy work - Taiwanese chips, American GPUs & Chinese demand. Anwar has pissed off one part of the trinity.

In the AI race, Singapore is sometimes painted as turning a blind eye to a bit of sanctions busting to profit as a hub. But in the Nvidia case, seems it was a lot more interested than America in impropriety - detaining Alice Huang last year while DOC dallied.

Papuk Indonesia's proposed Batam ammonia hub is another attempt to cut Singapore out. But Jakarta wilfully misunderstands Singapore's role as a middleman. Believing it simply profits from selling Indonesian resources. If it was that easy, why doesn't Indonesia sell all its exports direct? Because its profiteering "neighbour" supplies the trade finance, law, insurance, and capital that actually creates a market. Batam is only 20km from Singapore. If it were a matter of geography, it would already be a hub. But Singapore became the world's biggest ship-refuelling port precisely because it avoids Jakarta's kneejerk short-termism. Its reputation is built over 50 years of predictability. Compare that Indonesia's caprice: declaring a state export monopoly in May, then rowing back within weeks. Or cutting gas to Singapore mid-contract last month. Resources are useless if counterparties can't trust you.

Apple's tax saving is a significant tax take for Singapore - netting $3.25bn into its coffers this year. BEPS 2.0 - once feared by Singapore - will actually see Apple pay another $2.5bn to the city state under the global minimum tax treaty. What was meant to blunt its edge has been to its advantage. 15% is still far below Britain's 25% or America's 21%. But now no new hub can threaten to undercut Singapore - it becomes the cheapest well-run place to book profits.

An Aussie pal in Singapore asked me if it was safe to go to London. And she’s not precious. That kind of concern is out of proportion - it’s fine as major cities go as long as you’ve got common sense. But the impression isn’t the result of some pernicious disinformation campaign. It’s the product of people seeing the proliferation of petty crime - from jumping barriers to snatching phones - without any fear of consequence. Those little incidents don’t get recorded in Khan’s crime stats. But its effects do among the millions who witness them. And that’s why people believe London is a lawless city.