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Focus on 1) Technology and Dividend Blended 2) Drawdown protection. Check highlights and articles. No investment advice. Now building ModelDock

Iceland
Joined October 2011
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What each budget can buy? The Pareto front of local AI right now: modeldock.net/insights/local…
在Strata的加持下,本地单机运行Qwen Flash Next的硬件配置最佳价值表完全翻转, 曾经很有竞争力的Mac M5M M5U等全线落败, 而N系顶卡+大内存路线实现了压倒性的胜利 3090从人人喊打的矿卡,开始一卡难求,4090,5090更是炙手可热。 就连5060 X2,3060X2,都可以战未来了。
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Nothing demoralizing a tech/engineering company more than appointing a financial guy as the CEO. Declare to public that the board has no clue the company does.
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英伟达这件事,就是美国版的公私合营。 我们在美血包要清醒自己的社会地位, 你我可以很爱美国,但这和人家美国搞你有什么关系?
Can the new CEO replicate this??? Big loss
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Terafab的招聘启事,点名招聘皮衣黄。
Damn Elon moves quick 👀👀👀👀😂😂
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黄仁勋出轨,影响美国国家安全。 爱泼斯坦强奸幼女名单,美国最高级国家机密。 这就是美国价值
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My prediction is that, within 18 months, the entire AI supply chain/with white house/s help, will be back begging China to buy more chips, with data center constructions in US essentially dead on arrival and previous committed buyers goes default. So many times in history.
600,000 Nvidia chips are stuck in Hong Kong because Chinese customs officials are refusing to let them enter the market, to avoid dependence on the American brand, and allow local firms to come up with their own solutions. That is technological sovereignty at work. And the new storyline today is that Jensen Huang is trying to circumvent the sanctions by secretly selling chips to Megaspeed, where his friend Alice Huang works, so she can sell them to China ? We’ve gone from “Chinese spy” to "mistress" to “executive of an Nvidia client company circumventing sanctions” in 24 hours, but none of this holds water. Pushing Huang out, taking control of his company because it had the world’s largest market capitalization for a year, and the fact that Huang doesn’t take his orders from the White House or Silicon Valley, and has a different opinion on how to engage China : these are the “crimes” for which he is being attacked. Sitting on the fence is not permitted.
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自从Claude Opus5.5发布以来, 明显感到M,G这几家公司的Agent开始变聪明了,模型研发开始更顺利了,产品改进频率变得更快了。 RSI,但是并不一定需要是本公司的LLM。
Google 的 RSI 投资好像见效了:Argon、Carbon 登顶 AA Intelligence Index, 内部还有更强的 Krypton。 几个月前 Google 还是笑话主角,现在 Gemini 能力被认为领先 1-2 年,发行和数据护城河更是碾压级。 但怪就怪在这:每月 200 美元的套餐里,全量 Gemini-4 模型的额度少得可怜、一下就用完,消费者端怎么都卖不动。技术领先,却赚不到消费者的钱。
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M,G两家,仅仅两三周之前,Agent上下文管理都有很大的bug,经常提笔忘字。
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共和党确实是这样的
黄仁勋案无疑深刻体现了共党这个包装成国家的犯罪集团,无所不用其极之本质。 把每一个个体打造成适配于统治需要的毒丸。 名利搞不定的人用色,色搞不定的用什么?
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Only thing that is a bit concerning is $NVDA now losing more bargaining power to CSPs now SEA export becomes extra tight.
$NVDA at $178 is attractive at 10-11x forward PE. I don’t think this is bearish toward NVDA if Jensen showed some respects to the Dems the same way to Trump. The real bearish one are $smci as the GPU smuggling to China would be blocked and $hut as Eric Trump will be tortured.
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毕竟一个成年女性,有千丝万缕的社会关系和难以捉摸的背景: 有可能是竞争对手派来的, 有可能是来分家产的, 有可能是老婆闺蜜, 竟然还有可能是个间谍, 万一要是朝鲜间谍,就万劫不复了, 富豪们想了想,禁不住轻抚钱包里爱泼斯坦的遗照。
原来西方政要巨富的特殊爱好背后, 有这么深刻的政治经济学原因。 毕竟资本主义还是老的辣。
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原来西方政要巨富的特殊爱好背后, 有这么深刻的政治经济学原因。 毕竟资本主义还是老的辣。
If Jensen had just had sex with underage girls on a pedo island like a normal billionaire we wouldn’t be in this black Monday mess
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马达尼当上纽约市长之前的共和党: "他要搞社会主义,他会让纽约万劫不复。" 马达尼当上纽约几个月后: 1. 万斯出来领功,表示是特朗普政府让纽约变得更好(屁) 2.普通人视角:这个社会主义,搞普惠日托,搞保障房建设,搞市政建设提供工作,控制犯罪,这就是你们共和党一直批评的社会主义? 3.共和党视角:他居然给穷人福利,用白花花的银子让穷人吃饱穿暖,有地方住,银子怎么能用来造保障房而不是数据中心,造孽啊。
上任不到一年的纽约市长的政绩满满,而川骗直邮空洞的口号,我不管他是穆斯林 还是佛教徒还是基督教徒,不管他是黑的白的蓝的绿的,只要真正服务于社会,改善老百姓的生活条件,我就支持他! 请问川粉 川普有哪些政绩?
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26年中期让我大松一口气。 24年让我觉得世上还是坏人多。 26年发现,原来只是蠢人多。 那不算是什么大问题。
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美国的国民性格里,最特别的一点,就是自大。 明明全国也建不了多少数据中心,但是满脑子想的都是怎么卡中国的脖子。 老登政治家这么想也情有可愿,年轻一辈的AI公司也是这个调门。 吃不下,可是真的会噎死的。 一段往事,美国20年代对苏联禁运,30年代陷入经济危机了把工厂整个往苏联卖。
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我们经常说,苏联只用了十几年就建设成了社会主义工业强国。 其实,主要还是美国佬破产前卖的价格非常良心。
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高市: 我在美国国会干过,没有人比我更懂美国。
一个事实,实际上本次创纪录的蓝潮,最大的输家是日本,是从里到外,从上到下,歇斯底里的失败。 在招募新时代的孙中山(消息来源:民逗轮媒)来政治避难前,大概要先招来MAGA政治避难的了。
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感觉美国已经没有摇摆州了, 现在只有摇摆美国,两年河东sweep,两年河西sweep。
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Best color palette I have ever seen!
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Amy Acton 赢下了Ohio州长! 这个世界终究还是有良知的。
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如果我们客观的去考虑, OAI如果能保持今天A社2/3的营收就很好了, 那么OAI的算力开支也应该是A社的2/3左右,即4000亿左右。 四千亿也已经很多了,但是还是远远小于OAI这些疯子承诺的1.4万亿。 也就是,现在至少有一万亿的overbuild, 即使不考虑 deepinfer / Strata 带来的生产力暴增。 不知道这是哪个幸运儿负责这一万亿建设。
OpenAI和Anthropic两家公司,公开披露的长期算力及基础设施承诺,合计已达约2万亿美元量级。 你们认为,这2万亿美元最终能兑现多少? OpenAI约1.4万亿美元:据Reuters报道,Altman称公司承诺未来八年投入这一金额建设算力资源。 Anthropic约6370亿美元:根据其招股文件的梳理,包含已签协议及预计交易。
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Big if true.. 这位大神宣称可以用更智能的LLM去读取/理解/修改LLM的权重,从而跳过训练,直接让低阶LLM更聪明。 我看了看手边的Opus5.5 和Qwen Flash Next。
We asked GPT-6 Astra to edit Qwen3.5-0.8B weights to improve math. It directly changed only 0.016% of weights, fixing 0.8B's reasoning loops & improving math up to 6x and even instruction following 3x, without gradients or training. We call this Weight-Space Programming: frontier LLMs can now natively read/write neural network weights! 🧵 Blog: rikiyat.github.io/blog/weigh…
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
LLM was given weights explicitly as text in prompt and used code/forward passes (per authors' logs) to ablate Qwen looping direction, a known thinking-mode issue per model card. Primarily fixed repetition in that mode, not general 'natively' improving weights/math. rikiyat.github.io/blog/weight-sp… github.com/RikiyaT/lm_und… huggingface.co/Qwen/Qwen3.5-0… huggingface.co/RikiyaT/Qwen3.…
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在我动手之前,是不是需要问一下A/,让Opus修改开源模型的权重,算不算蒸馏。
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