
Senior Writer @NRO. author of My Father Left Me Ireland. Making sense of the disruptive politics of the 21st century.
Joined November 2007
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Michael Brendan Dougherty retweeted
Robert Kagan: “Iran does not have the capability to strike American territory, and Trump's FP should be focused on national security: I don’t see how Iran threatens those interests..." [The war] "has been conducted essentially in Israel’s interest.” foglioeuropeo.ilfoglio.it/en…
Michael Brendan Dougherty retweeted
Consider: I'm far smarter than you and far more malevolent, and yet I still haven't taken over your life.
Michael Brendan Dougherty retweeted
51% of **Republicans** want Congress to pass legislation ending the Iran war
Michael Brendan Dougherty retweeted
I've been won over pretty much completely to Douthat as TV interviewer. He not only extracted more information than most people do when sitting down with this president, but he managed to drop some pretty funny asides without making the conversation about himself.
Two thoughts on this:
1. A man so consumed with hatred that he’d rather go to hell than forgive his enemies is a tragedy. I’d pity him if he was my neighbor or president.
2. This is the most interesting Trump interview I’ve seen in a long time. Feeling good about my prediction that @Douthat60 would be great on 60 Minutes.
Michael Brendan Dougherty retweeted
The accumulating data showing that it was the collapse of Trump turnout, rather than crossover voting, that wiped out the GOP further undercuts the idea that tariffs were the main culprit. Trump ran on tariffs; would his voters stay home because of them? Iran better explains.
Michael Brendan Dougherty retweeted
Love Ross, but I don't think this is quite right, as the problem seems to be more directly attributable to Trump. If we take Charlie Kirk as a proxy for the more polished New Right, he was trying to persuade the president to focus on kitchen-table economics, bringing down the cost of living for young people, and avoiding a war with Iran. According to exit polls, these were the most important reasons for the voter shift, plus corruption in the Mar-a-Lago orbit, which is distinct from the New Right milieu. Even on the smaller cultural issues like porn and drugs and gambling, the New Right and the president were increasingly on opposite sides.
On policy, it's certainly fair to criticize protectionist tariffs, the DHS hype-reel videos, and the disastrous management of deportations, but for the latter, especially, the failure seems mostly related to Trump's bad cabinet picks, like Noem and Bovino, when he could have achieved significant out-migration without the heavy-handed militarized tactics in cities like Minneapolis, which led voters to the conclusion that "enforcement has gone too far." (Some of us were warning about this after the anti-ICE riots in the summer of 2025.)
The problem for the New Right, and, one could say, its "failure," was that the president doesn't care about the right-wing intelligentsia—he is not ideological in that sense—and pursues his own vision in his own idiosyncratic way. The New Right was an opposition vehicle that Trump used for his campaign, paid back with culture-war wins in the first 100 days, and then mostly abandoned.
This week's @TheFP column: How the New Right Failed:
thefp.com/p/how-the-new-righ…
Michael Brendan Dougherty retweeted
Lots of subjectivity and vibes in “was it tariffs or was it Iran war” debate. But objectively, data shows a much bigger impact from Iran war on prices increases 2026 and it’s not that close. It was about cost of living, and Iran was the main driver of that.
Michael Brendan Dougherty retweeted
Replying to @michaelbd
Where do you get the number 33 from?
The exit poll put Trump’s approval rating at 37, consistent with the polling averages that had him at 38. He was at 42 in February in polling averages before the war started.
So we are talking about a 4-point drop or so in approval rating.
I think it would be foolish to say the entirety of the 4-point drop is attributable to the war because he had been steadily trending downward since Inauguration Day. There was no reason to think he’d bottomed out or was going to do anything to recover between February and now.
But even if you want to attribute the entire 4-point drop to the war and imagine a world in which Trump magically stopped bleeding support 8 months ago, the midterms would still have been a (little less bloody) bloodbath for Republicans.
Iran certainly mattered, but Trump's approval rating—which steadily declined since his second inauguration—dropped about 4 points from February (before the war) to now.
Republican Senate candidates lost Texas by 12 points and North Carolina by 20.
xitter.twitterapi.xyz/MaryMargOlohan/status/…
Michael Brendan Dougherty retweeted
You sure about that?
Michael Brendan Dougherty retweeted
You can't outrun this number. This was a normie election decided by normie voters, and being 50 points underwater on the economy is a death sentence.
Michael Brendan Dougherty retweeted
South Carolina is called for Annie Andrews, a Democratic flip. MBD was the only Editor who had it. Rich, Jim and Noah all had Graham holding on.
Michael Brendan Dougherty retweeted
This take is a brain disease. The year-over-year CPI increase stands at 3.7%. Half of that is increased energy prices following the Iran war. Meanwhile, even tariff opponents estimate that tariffs are responsible for only 0.7% of the CPI increase. Tariffs simply didn't have the inflation impact that critics predicted.
If you know Econ you know tariffs were the biggest unforced error of the Trump presidency, and the root cause of what is going down tonight. Just look at the numbers; sure people don’t like higher gas prices but they’re not the main reason food costs more and they’re not much higher than they were during Biden. Plus they’re recent; the tariffs began nearly day 1 of the Trump Admin and at a time when he was put in office by working class people who rebelled against the high prices they paid for everything during Biden. With tariffs Trump took those prices higher with a regressive tax on working people who don’t have the means to speculate around them in stocks. On top of that, tariffs never stoked the manufacturing boom that was promised. It’s so obvious but for MAGA to admit tariffs were wrong would be like arguing the 2020 election wasn’t stolen
Michael Brendan Dougherty retweeted
National GOP operative tells me: "People will try to overcomplicate this, but its really simple: This is 100% because of Iran. It's all in the data and has been since a week after the war started. The economic anxiety is directly correlated with the war. We got our asses kicked because of it."
Michael Brendan Dougherty retweeted
UPDATE: 62% of voters say the war in Iran was the wrong decison; 74% say it was a "crucial" or "major" factor in their vote.
responsiblestatecraft.org/ir…
Michael Brendan Dougherty retweeted
Wow. From Raymond James. Trump approval mapped onto average gas prices.
Michael Brendan Dougherty retweeted
*Plummeting to my death*
Guy on the internet: smile more!
A pilot should not:
🔘become hysterical
🔘speak too quickly to be intelligible
🔘say, "We're going to crash into the ground!"
🔘scream like a little girl
🔘hyperventilate
🔘scream like a little girl again
A pilot needs a certain disposition. This is not it. That's the reality.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
"In a two-pilot cockpit, the person talking to air traffic control is typically NOT the person flying the aeroplane."
instagram.com/reel/DfNtzvGTY…
Nobody knows how they are going to behave in a very distressing & worsening situation, why be judgemental on a situation we all hope we are never in.
lifeworksaz.com/counselors-blo…
Michael Brendan Dougherty retweeted
Another classic of the genre
A recent ad on consent produced by the Dublin Rape Crisis Centre is one of a number of 'warning signs' regarding the use of public money by external organisations, said Simon Harris jrnl.ie/7210067



































