Marko Jukic (@mmjukic) header
Marko Jukic (@mmjukic) profile picture

Finding the golden path to interstellar civilization. Senior Analyst @bismarckanlys.

Earth & Luna
Joined May 2023
I am no longer able to promote the next lecture in NYC this Saturday, because it is SOLD OUT. Thanks to everyone who came out and will be coming out soon. If due to extenuating circumstances you cannot make it in NYC, mark "not going" and get a refund so someone else can join!
A big thanks to @palladiummag and @JoinFAI @ZacharyGraves for hosting a wonderful evening in our nation's for now still Earthbound capital for the discussion of the mystical origins of rocketry and a future of interstellar space developmentalism. Pleasure meeting everyone!
3
2
22
6,470
It should now be obvious the electorate for a "traditional" Republican platform no longer exists. The illusion it did still exist was entirely the effect of Donald Trump running for office on a new populist platform for a new populist electorate, which was not on offer in 2026.
I’m still in awe of this. The Democratic Party won the popular vote for both the Senate and the House. The last time we won the Class II popular vote was in 1984, and the last time we won the South-wide House vote was in 1992.
1
7
90
2,951
Old people are just generally kind of horrible from a human capital perspective, given that they are constantly losing cognitive abilities, physical health, and also testosterone that allows one to be disagreeable enough to think independently—and they are becoming the majority.
Americans really are a bunch of screeching paranoiacs, especially the olds. The geriatrics on the other side are even more insane with their No Kings protests. If only the lies about covid being super deadly were true, maybe we’d be free from gerontocracy right now.
5
7
143
3,206
My beef with our current system is that it is not on track to match let alone defeat China as an economic and industrial power. It could be done! There are 2 billion people in the wider Western world, double China. But the system is focused on internal repression instead.
Replying to @mmjukic
I don't support China dominating the world economically with its industrial power, but the solution to that is major reforms in the Western world, not more political repression and economic transfer to elites in the West.
12
11
213
5,057
The EU makes it de facto illegal to launch new businesses while also making it de facto illegal to import cheap small consumer items from outside the EU. Net result is an economic Iron Curtain making Europe poorer. Same thing will eventually come to America, with same result.
i like how the european union just fucked over everyone with a hobby that isn't collecting rocks from the side of the street and we can't do anything about international trade being effectively murdered
12
20
3
417
10,900
We will all be benevolently protected from the threat of affordable Chinese consumer products, for national security reasons, as our own economies plummet into disrepair and dysfunction.
3
6
1
89
2,094
Is there any low this man will not stoop to? Do we want to live in an America where just anyone is allowed to have sex with consenting adults or employ their children at their company? Is that the kind of society we want? I think not.
JUST IN: Filings show both of Jensen Huang's children are on Nvidia's payroll with $1,000,000 salaries despite "non-technical" backgrounds
42
26
5
697
46,983
It's just unfortunate that the crisis being revealed by losing a war against Iran—indicating we would be completely stomped by China in any conventional war—is being used not to socially-capitalize major reforms but to socially-capitalize ten times more political repression.
The real story is that U.S. elites are giving up on financially or diplomatically dominating China, but simultaneously incapable of the political and ideological reform necessary for reindustrialization, so are grabbing for the only option left which is AI military Wunderwaffe.
4
22
3
214
6,235
You know, we used to have a natural, organic method of assigning Boomers to their young people. Or, rather, assigning young people to their Boomers.
Once the ratio hits 1:1 the French government should explicitly assign every worker their own personal boomer so they can identify more with what their tax dollars are supporting.
2
8
155
3,200
Highly recommend attending this Friday for all San Francisco people!
Attention San Francisco: November 13th, Ian Fletcher will be giving a talk on why economic nationalism is far from irrational and an intrinsic part of most successful economies for @palladiummag. Tickets are limited. Get yours here: luma.com/palladium-economic-…
2
14
2,199
The debate over whether the U.S. should make a highly leveraged bet on "ASI Wunderwaffe" or rather hedge its bets is one that should ideally take place in the open and with meaningful disagreement and market competition, not behind closed doors at group houses or spy briefings.
Nobody can explain why Jensen Huang sleeping with a Chinese woman endangers U.S. national security because it doesn't. It's a lurid story meant as a personal attack on an influential person who does not share the "RSI to AGI to ASI in 36 months" view of AI development.
4
4
79
2,495
I will be the first to point out this ideal may unfortunately not be achievable in practice, but so long as I have the ability to analyze events and publicly state my conclusions, I will continue to do so.
9
754
Bookmark this.
Every time I think European voters cannot be more in denial about pensions, they prove me wrong: they are even more in denial than in my worst nightmare. The average French person believes there are 6.4 workers for every retiree. The real number is about 1.8.
3
5
90
4,242
In general, you should always be extremely suspicious of accusations that some prominent figure is committing treason, given the massive costs associated with committing treason and the meager or non-existent benefits of doing so for any prominent figure.
Replying to @mmjukic
Nobody has been charged with any crimes. Ignoring that part and ignoring presumption of innocence to instead trumpet your own verdict in the court of public opinion is a political attack whose motivations I have explained. xitter.twitterapi.xyz/anti_minotaur/status/2…
1
2
49
1,470
The real story is that U.S. elites are giving up on financially or diplomatically dominating China, but simultaneously incapable of the political and ideological reform necessary for reindustrialization, so are grabbing for the only option left which is AI military Wunderwaffe.
Nobody can explain why Jensen Huang sleeping with a Chinese woman endangers U.S. national security because it doesn't. It's a lurid story meant as a personal attack on an influential person who does not share the "RSI to AGI to ASI in 36 months" view of AI development.
21
105
8
902
35,146
Still not one rebuttal to this thread, only constipated blowhard Cold War spy movie catchphrases, because a rebuttal would require going through the chain of logic of "ASI in 36 months" that virtually everyone outside of tech and many within tech actually have many doubts about.
Nobody can explain why Jensen Huang sleeping with a Chinese woman endangers U.S. national security because it doesn't. It's a lurid story meant as a personal attack on an influential person who does not share the "RSI to AGI to ASI in 36 months" view of AI development.
5
6
1
132
4,829
It is remarkable how often people attempt the classic "I am going to pretend I cannot understand the English language" tactic to derail a debate while preserving a fig leaf of being an earnest interlocutor. xitter.twitterapi.xyz/mmjukic/status/2120168…
You obviously would take issue with a thread arguing that—such as mine—but do not feel confident in making that argument, which is why you are instead acting like my choice of phrasing is the relevant substance here, and impugning my character. xitter.twitterapi.xyz/KelseyTuoc/status/2120…
1
1
17
1,066
I don't think Jensen Huang should've slept with a Chinese woman passing information to the Chinese government and buying GPUs in violation of U.S. export controls, but then again this is being brought up as a Reichstag Fire to slip through a PATRIOT Act for computer chips.
According to The Information, NVIDIA has long lobbied hard against proposals to restrict Chinese companies’ access to its latest chips through overseas cloud providers. But since the scandal surrounding Jensen Huang broke, that lobbying appears to carry less weight in Washington. The fallout has reportedly made it easier to advance three bills. The MATCH Act would restrict shipments of lithography equipment to China. The Overwatch Act would give Congress greater oversight of the Commerce Department’s decisions to approve AI chip sales to countries such as China. The Chip Security Act would require AI chips to have built-in tracking capabilities. The National Defense Authorization Act is expected to pass before the new Democratic-led Congress convenes in January. That gives Republican leaders an incentive to help move the legislation forward now, while they still have more say over what goes into the final bill.
8
30
4
215
21,831
"Maybe, just maybe, this might not be the wisest policy." xitter.twitterapi.xyz/ReclaimTheNetHQ/status…
Democrats have a wishlist for AI that includes a federal permit to train a model, a Department of AI, 20-year prison terms for executives, kill switches, and ID checks to use a chatbot. Writing code is about to need a hall pass if certain politicians get their way. reclaimthenet.org/democrats-…
34
1,342
Concerning.
Anthropic now plans to push for govts to require firmware level locks on Western GPUs that prevent "unapproved" (Chinese open-source) models from being run on them, in the name of "AI safety" and "national security." AMD/Google are on board, only Jensen opposed it 1/
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
This is a satirical account parodying The Daily Mail; no such information has been revealed by credible sources. dailymail.co.uk
10
9
1
250
11,848
Nobody can explain why Jensen Huang sleeping with a Chinese woman endangers U.S. national security because it doesn't. It's a lurid story meant as a personal attack on an influential person who does not share the "RSI to AGI to ASI in 36 months" view of AI development.
You can read Jensen Huang's cogent explanations for why he thinks the U.S. should sell high-end semiconductors to China at length. There is no secrecy about it, he just has a view of the technology and its future development and potential different to that of the frontier labs.
138
148
50
1,311
180,271
The reason the personal attack is coming now is because the "ASI in 36 months" faction feels emboldened by the midterms and is trying to eliminate the "AI is a normal technology" faction, of which Jensen is perhaps the highest-profile and most powerful member.
3
9
2
204
11,261
You can read Jensen Huang's cogent explanations for why he thinks the U.S. should sell high-end semiconductors to China at length. There is no secrecy about it, he just has a view of the technology and its future development and potential different to that of the frontier labs.
Replying to @SamoBurja
But the combination of this security breach and his lobbying for sales to China really does make it a national security issue. I’m not a China Hawk *at all* but if we’re serious about national security we can’t just accept things like this.
14
31
7
296
66,565
The technological singularity is not inevitable. AI progress can easily be indefinitely halted by doing things like banning data center construction or "investigating" every live player in AI until only dead players, regulators, and looters remain. Singularity is cancelled.
Turns out when you thought you were feeling the AGI, you were actually just feeling the permissive business and social environment of Donald Trump's second presidential administration.
11
7
145
4,117
“Sources say he may have fallen out of favor of the new faction gaining power.” xitter.twitterapi.xyz/jukan05/status/2119605…
Taiwanese semiconductor analyst Andrew Lu’s take on the recent scandal involving Jensen Huang: Why the US Seized on the Scandal to Draw Its Sword: Three Strategic Objectives The purpose of this scandal is by no means to expose an affair. It is to force through three critical objectives that had made no headway in the tech war between the US and China because Jensen Huang opposed them. The first cut: Completely destroy the legitimacy of Jensen Huang's lobbying against sanctions in Washington Over the past two years, the loudest and most influential business leader in Silicon Valley opposing a total ban on chip exports to China has been Jensen Huang. He has told the White House the same thing all along: "Cede the Chinese market to Huawei, and the only one that ends up dead is the American tech industry." But the moment US intelligence labels the woman named as Huang's affair partner "a spy working for China's Ministry of State Security who sought to steer the US toward easing its chip controls," every bit of lobbying he has done for looser controls takes on an entirely different political meaning. It becomes a national security matter, raising the possibility that a foreign spy used a secret relationship to exert influence. Huang can no longer say a single word in defense of the Chinese market before Congress or the White House. If he does, he will be branded as someone who "fell for an intelligence operation and still hasn't come to his senses." The second cut: Reverse the H200 export approvals for China and sever the link between Chinese shell companies and Southeast Asian smuggling networks Look at the timing of the two reports. On November 8, the very day the Jensen Huang scandal broke, The New York Times published an investigation for which its reporters went in person to dozens of Chinese companies that the US Commerce Department had approved to handle Nvidia's H200 chips. New Matrix in Beijing was one of them. According to the report, the registered addresses of companies approved to buy the chips turned out to be empty "ghost offices," and some of the companies had close ties to entities on US sanctions lists and to firms under contract with the Chinese military. One exposé says Nvidia's CEO was having an affair with a female spy from Megaspeed, the Singapore company that handled the chip smuggling. The other says the Chinese companies Commerce approved to buy H200s are nothing but shell companies trading on behalf of the Chinese military. The aim of these two reports is clear. They are meant to pressure the Trump administration and the Commerce Department into fully revoking or freezing H200 export approvals for China and, going further, to force a sweeping overhaul of the loophole that let chips be diverted through data centers run by third parties in Singapore and elsewhere in Southeast Asia. The third cut: Put Nvidia on a national security leash through congressional oversight and an independent investigation As the world's largest company by market cap and the dominant force in AI, Nvidia has until now enjoyed broad autonomy in how it runs its business. But in the wake of this incident, the three congressional committees responsible for China, foreign affairs, and intelligence have begun examining Nvidia's internal security measures directly. They have even pressured Nvidia's board into forming an independent investigation committee to look into the company's own founder and CEO. In effect, Washington's national security establishment has planted a watchdog right inside Nvidia's board. From now on, the goal is to make sure that everything, down to where each and every one of Nvidia's high performance chips ends up, conforms strictly to US national security strategy. It also means there is no more room for skirting the edge of the rules or releasing chips with specs specially tailored to regulatory thresholds. Conclusion "The scandal was a detonator set off right on cue. The real goal was to plug the holes chips were leaking through." Jensen Huang made the fatal mistake of letting his guard down in his private life and personal relationships. In the end, he fell into a honey trap, the textbook tactic of intelligence warfare, and was compromised. America's national security and intelligence agencies ruthlessly exploited the weakness his private life had exposed. As a result, they solved three thorny problems in a single stroke: Nvidia's lobbying at the White House to ease restrictions on China, the flow of H200 chips into Chinese shell companies, and smuggling routed through Singapore. The closed congressional hearing set for November 18 will be the decisive turning point at which the US moves in earnest to tighten its sanctions on China's AI compute even further.
2
23
1,247
Turns out when you thought you were feeling the AGI, you were actually just feeling the permissive business and social environment of Donald Trump's second presidential administration.
Imagine if China's top AI executive who single-handedly made the AI revolution possible through tireless pursuit of parallel processors was one day inexplicably disappeared following a lurid sex scandal alleged by intelligence agencies a week after a change in legislative power.
1
6
1
121
7,892