David Craig

Hi. Meteorologist here. This is nonsense. We have not entered a “new age of climate extremes.” There is no such thing as a “supersized El Niño” and the planet isn’t being “superheated” by climate change either. First, the correct meteorological term is “very strong El Niño.” Second, El Niño a natural part of Earth’s internal weather and climate variability. It is just the positive (warm) phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Correspondingly, La Niña is the negative (cool) phase. The atmospheric circulation component of ENSO in the tropical Pacific is the “Southern Oscillation.” But the resulting warming (cooling) sea surface temperature (SST) response is El Niño (La Niña). Normally, the thermocline (a transition layer separating warmer mixed water at the surface from cooler water below) in the Pacific Ocean slopes down towards the west. This means that the western Pacific usually has a deep, warm mixed layer of water extending downward from the surface, while the eastern Pacific has a relatively shallow mixed layer. These are “ENSO neutral” conditions. The sloped nature of the thermocline is maintained by easterly wind stress on the equatorial Pacific ocean surface. The strength of the easterlies is determined by the balance between convection (upward motion) over Indonesia and subsidence (downward motion) in the central and eastern Pacific. During La Niña, easterlies are stronger than normal because convection is displaced further west. Lower pressure over the Maritime Continent and higher pressure over Tahiti results in a strongly positive SOI index. Higher wind stress pushes even more warm surface water westward, resulting in the formation of an even larger warm pool in the west Pacific near Asia, which steepens the thermocline. This enhances divergence, leading to upwelling of cool, nutrient-rich water in the central and eastern Pacific. However, if convection moves eastward over the Pacific, the easterlies weaken or even locally reverse (we call these “westerly wind bursts”) and thermocline begins to flatten, allowing warmer water in the west Pacific to slosh eastward, creating a deeper pool of warm water in the central and eastern Pacific. This is El Niño, and this is occurring right now. The state of ENSO is quantified using the SST anomalies [relative to the most recent 30-year mean; currently, we use 1991–2020] along the equatorial belt. The main area for which SSTAs are monitored is the Niño 3.4 region, which runs from the 120–170th meridians of longitude and 5° north or south of the equator (5°N–5°S, 170°W–120°W). If the three-month averaged SSTA in Niño 3.4 is at least +0.5°C (+0.9°F), then El Niño is declared. If the three-month averaged SSTA is at least −0.5°C (−0.9°F), La Niña is declared. El Niño (La Niña) events are classified as either being “weak,” “moderate,” “strong,” or “very strong” depending on how far above (below) average SSTs in Niño 3.4 have been for the last three months. If the three-month averaged SSTA is +0.5–0.99°C (−0.5°C to −0.99°C), then the El Niño (La Niña) is weak. If it's +1–1.49°C (−1°C to −1.49°C), then the El Niño (La Niña) is moderate. If it's +1.5–1.99°C (−1.5°C to −1.99°C), then the El Niño (La Niña) is strong. If it's ≥ +2.0°C (≤ −2.0°), then the El Niño (La Niña) is very strong. The latest data from CDAS indicate that the Niño 3.4 region is currently +2.9°C (relative to 1991–2020). This means that we are in “very strong El Niño” territory.” And this has happened several times before. Very Strong El Niños occurred in 1790–93, 1827–28, 1844–45, 1890–91, 1925–26, 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16. You are nothing but an ignorant, agenda-driven clown.