Equity Analysis at Rebellionaire. Finance and energy nerd. Giga-dad of 7 young kids. Catholic. Tweets are not financial advice!
Michigan
Joined September 2016
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I just spent the morning updating my $LMND DCF model. I can't help but feel a bit like cobbler during the industrial revolution, plying the craft I learned when I was younger but knowing the machines can do this work much faster than I ever could.
That said, there's something deeply satisfying about going through a valuation model I built from scratch. Walking line-by-line to add the company's actual results, and seeing where my forecast assumptions might need to be updated. This practice helps me understand a company at a very deep level, even though I still very much see the value in having an AI build a model and just tweaking the assumptions.
As for the results, I increased a few line items, notably interest expense and Other Insurance Expense. I also reduced the Customer Acquisition Cost I had been modeling, as I appeared to have been being too conservative. Finally I made some adjustments to the Terminal Value calculation.
The Terminal Value is a bit tricky, because I have cash flow growing at 30% YoY in the last period of my forecast, so going straight into a Gordon Growth calc doesn't make a whole lot of sense. I also believe the company's beta will come down by that period of time, which could drastically improve the PV calculation. This is an extremely important variable in the model, so ultimately I tried something of a middle-of-the-road approach, where I assumed 4% perpetual growth of the cash flows (much lower than what I expect over the first few years of the terminal value, but too high for a real perpetual growth figure) and I assumed the cost of equity in at that time drops from ~12.7% today to 10% in 2033.
Making these changes results in a 2033 valuation of $23B, or $258 per share. This is a 14.4x multiple of the company's cash flows in the last year of my model, and a P/E of 21. Both of those seem quite reasonable to me, and I could in fact see them being higher.
But I don't want to give the company credit for everything, and there is still a significant amount of execution to see before I think the market will agree with me on this type of valuation.
I'm looking forward to Investor Day next week, and learning more about what this amazing company has been cooking up!
Matt Smith retweeted
Friends, please pray for the entire Kirk family, who learned they'll wait until at least June 2028 for justice, news likely made doubly painful by remarks about Charlie this week that are beneath contempt.
On the “I’ve Had It” podcast, so-called culture commentators Jennifer Welch and Angie Sullivan laughed at the idea of digging up Charlie’s body and “doing it again.”
Then Dave Chappelle told a sold-out Madison Square Garden that “life got better” after Charlie was murdered, and that Charlie is now “looking up, laughing so hard he can’t breathe.”
I have often defended comedians, and I understand that pushing the boundaries of what's acceptable is part of the gig. But this is different.
This is laughing at the murder of a young husband and father of two small children, who was killed with a microphone in his hand, inviting those who disagreed with him into honest, respectful dialogue. Shame on you.
There have always been people in the fever swamps who cheer when someone dies. What is new is that it now comes from the main stage and is met with applause.
How did we get here?
This is what a culture looks like when it drifts away from God. Remove God, and with him any sense of the transcendent and the sacred, our objective sense of what is true and good is left in ruins.
What remains is relativism, “my truth” and “your truth,” and finally a game of power: my team against yours. In a world like that, a man's death can become a punchline.
Charlie understood this cultural disease and spent much of his life trying to heal it. It's why he went onto hostile campuses to sit with young people, many of them unmoored and unaffiliated, and make the case for God, for truth, and for a moral order beyond themselves. He listened patiently, argued charitably, and spoke openly about Jesus Christ.
It is my hope, then, that many more will take up this vital part of Charlie's work.
Mississippi's Permit Board just upheld SpaceX's Southaven turbine permit, allowing for ~1.2 GW from 41 permanent turbines.
This is a fairly big deal in terms of de-risking a good chunk of the >10GW Elon said they will be bringing online by the end of 2027.
After a two-day evidentiary hearing, the vote wasn't close. Only one member voted no. I've been very concerned about public backlash against data centers, so this was a very nice data point showing projects can still move forward.
There is still some execution needed, but the first unit is slated to start Dec 27.
$SPCX
This is the first time I've experienced a real-world consequence for an LLM hallucination.
Anyone have any good recipes that use a few dozen eggs???
Matt Smith retweeted
Lemonade delivered an excellent quarter in our opinion, but the stock is still down.
Its Q3 net loss was $43.7 million, after about $70 million spent winning new customers. Without that spending, it would have been profitable.
Stock price swings often have little to do with the business, and that can sometimes be an opportunity.
What do you think?
Rebellionaire clients and employees own $LMND stock.
*Timestamps*
00:00 Lemonade Fell With the Market
02:09 Lemonade's Growth Is So Predictable
05:07 Why Analysts Misread Lemonade's Net Loss
08:22 Lemonade's Growth Spend Pays Back
10:36 EBITCAC Points to Lemonade's Profits
14:26 Why We Think Lemonade Is Undervalued
16:14 Lemonade Steady While the Stock Swings
@daschreiber @shai_wininger @nerdalert
$LMND
Just cancelled my last 10 Cybertruck reservations. As I said 6 years ago, the $100 resrvation was a free call option on autonomy, since they were guaranteeing the then-current price of FSD.
It didn't pan out, but all I lost was the time value of ~$2,300.
Dave’s videos recently have been absolutely top-notch. His use of AI is excellent, and he’s balancing that with his human voice which provides authenticity.
So glad to have him posting videos again.
I’m not sure how to introduce this video. I do think it’s one of the best videos I’ve made. But I’ve done this long enough to know people think different and there will be people who don’t like this video (and people who detest it)l. I’ve titled it “Beyond Left and Right: What the 2026 Midterms Really Mean “. I hope it adds to our country’s discussion on where we are and where I think we’re headed.
If you’re in a rush, you can skip to 14:37 in the video to hear my personal take on the midterm election results. Otherwise, the entire video works together to tell the whole story.
0:00 Intro
0:33 What Happened
2:14 Trump and Vance
5:43 Tucker Carlson
7:11 The Democrats
8:51 Step Back
12:44 What Now?
14:37 My Take
Also posted on YT: youtube.com/watch?v=14rYXO6t…
Matt Smith retweeted
12 straight quarters of accelerating growth 🚀 @Lemonade_Inc’s Q3 2026 results are in!
Highlights (Y/Y)
🚀 12th consecutive quarters of accelerating IFP growth
🚀 IFP reached $1.55 Billion (+34%)
🚀 Revenue grew 73% to $336M
🚀 Record Gross Profit of $118M (+48%)
🚀 3.52M customers (+23%)
🚀 $27M adj. Free Cash Flow → 6th consecutive positive quarter
🚀 $1.2 Billion in cash + investments
Car picking up speed
✅ Car IFP grew 63% Y/Y
✅ Now in 14 states, covering more than half the U.S. population
✅ Autonomous Car for Tesla FSD now in 6 states
Lemonade OS
✅ >2.5x the premium base, with fewer employees than four years ago
✅ 25 new product-geography combinations launched this year
✅ Renters now available nationwide!
✅ Native support for personal AI agents coming soon
✅ Live demos of Lemonade OS at Investor Day, Nov 17
Up next
⬆️ Guiding to our first-ever positive adj. EBITDA quarter in Q4!
⬆️ Reiterating our expectation of a full year of positive adj. EBITDA in 2027
⬆️ Raising FY revenue and gross earned premium guidance
Given the huge growth in FSD subscriptions Tesla is seeing, I suspect Lemonade Car Insurance will grow very aggressively in the coming years.
$LMND posting strong growth again this quarter, and a 64% net loss ratio. I’d say the AI is working.
Affirmed positive Adj EBITDA guidance for Q4, which is a huge milestone.
I’ll keep digging but this looks very solid.
Matt Smith retweeted
$UPST Q3 2026
Revenue $370.5M vs $363.7M, GAAP EPS $0.33 vs $0.23 consensus ✅
Contribution Profit $218M, a new all-time high. Contribution Margin 60% - highest since Q4 2024 💰
Secured products (Auto + Home) hit positive Contribution Margin at 17%, a quarter ahead of the year-end break-even target 🚗🏠
The balance sheet shrank. Loans held fell 11.6% QoQ to $940M and are now 4.8% of total outstanding vs 5.9% last quarter, the lowest in over five quarters. 👀
Guidance trimmed on macro. Full-year revenue $1.40B to $1.35B, Adjusted EBITDA $294M to $260M. November 3 UMI 1.53, October OV $1,249M. ❌
We now await the call from @paulxgu and team.
I'll be honest I thought refrigeration was illegal in Europe.
NEW - A chilling wave of suspected cyberattacks is sweeping across Europe's refrigeration systems, and the crisis is widening as more countries and businesses become potential targets.
disclose.tv/id/xf2szsag0o/
Matt Smith retweeted
Helpful guide for my Halloween impaired and Halloween curious followers. @ICannot_Enough @nerdalert
