Okiki Ojo

While the Budget has some bright spots (innovation policy, homelessness resources, CMHC lending changes, regulatory consolidation, and competition reforms), I think the overall direction is bad. As I learn more, I am less confident the federal government will meet its growth and governance objectives over the next 4+ years (I hope I’m wrong). Firstly, too many numbers are misleading. Are deficits $70B or $150B? Is permanent immigration 380K or 600K per year? It depends on how you count. Secondly, this is the second year of one-time TR-to-PR measures. Will there be one-time measures every year? What should provincial and municipal governments, businesses, and industry prepare for? The confusion on population growth helps no one. The obfuscation is obviously political. Paired with provincial and municipal inaction and land-use rollbacks, housing and affordability issues will likely return strongly by 2030. New housing money won’t fix the dysfunctional systems we still have. There is no energy in the federal government to hold provinces or cities responsible for change, nor any accountability on infrastructure spending waste. If anything shifts political fortunes for the Carney Liberals, it will be the consequences of policy failure on these files. Capacity in housing, infrastructure, and social systems will not be supplied fast enough under current provincial governance conditions. Quality of life declines for many will be the cost. The Feds are playing with fire. There is perhaps one year at most to make reforms, but there is no momentum. Thirdly, the fiscal trajectory is not great. Governments are bad investors. Both capital and operational spending are normal and should not require deficits. Funding capital spending entirely with debt is a bad approach and normalizing this is a mistake. Deficit spending is becoming too structural. Interest is set to consume much of future budgets. We are betting on stable bond markets, but given the lack of fiscal discipline in many major economies, more caution is needed. Things may be fine until suddenly they’re not. I could accept more of this trajectory if there were a clear plan to correct course or tough decisions. But there isn’t. Major reforms like OAS remain untouched. The political window for these hard choices is closing fast. The prime minister has lived up to the moment on trade, diplomacy, and global affairs, and has been fantastic on promoting industry and resource development. But the internal agenda for Canada needs more direct attention. To Build Canada Strong, we must ensure our systems for growth are strong. They’re not, and this budget’s approach is not making me optimistic.