Senior Data Journalist @focaldataHQ. Also on 🦋. (he/him) 🏳️🌈 patrick@focaldata.com
Joined April 2020
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Hard to overstate just how rapid the changes in US party coalitions have been.
The Democrats are now the party of high education *and* high income voters. Just 12 years ago, the inverse was true.
On these terms, the Trump coalition was closer to Obama 2008 than the Harris one!
We've just released our forecast for today's midterm elections, based on a combination of our data, public polls, and fundamentals.
We give the Democrats a 99% chance of winning the House, and a 67% chance of winning the Senate, with 51 seats (narrowly) the modal outcome.
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Our model is more cautious on the Senate than some other public forecasters, largely driven by our adjustments for non-ignorable non-response bias (particularly polls under-sampling low trust Republicans).
The model give a central generic ballot estimate of D+7.3
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Full forecast and write-up, including interactives, can be viewed on our website here:
focaldata.com/blog/us-midter…
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The final @focaldataHQ-@FT poll of the midterms gives the Democrats a 7.4-point lead in the generic ballot with likely voters.
🔵 Democrats: 52%
🔴 Republicans: 45%
Fieldwork 30 Oct - 1 Nov. 2,444 US adults surveyed.
focaldata.com/blog/democrats…
‼️ We've reached the crossover in counted votes, and I'm confident enough to call the election.
Lula will be RE-ELECTED as president of Brazil (>99% chance).
🇧🇷 Brazil runoff projection - 19:23 BRT, 3.2% counted
Lula 52.1% (95% CI: 48.6-55.6)
Flávio Bolsonaro 47.9% (44.4-51.4)
Lula wins: 88%
Count so far: Lula 51.3%, Flávio 48.7%
#Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro
Lula's advance looks more like vote switching than a turnout effect. Turnout *is* up, but has actually risen more in Bolsonaro areas.
Update with just over 10% counted. Possible the voting extension is changing when votes are reported within each jurisdiction, but we should be getting quite a stable outcome quite soon.
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A pretty remarkable turnaround if this holds.
🇧🇷 Brazil runoff projection - 19:23 BRT, 3.2% counted
Lula 52.1% (95% CI: 48.6-55.6)
Flávio Bolsonaro 47.9% (44.4-51.4)
Lula wins: 88%
Count so far: Lula 51.3%, Flávio 48.7%
#Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro
🇧🇷 Brazil runoff projection - 19:17 BRT, 2.2% counted
Lula 51.7% (95% CI: 47.9-55.5)
Flávio Bolsonaro 48.3% (44.5-52.1)
Lula wins: 83%
Count so far: Lula 51.7%, Flávio 48.3%
#Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro
Quite shocked, but Lula clear favourite.
🇧🇷 Brazil runoff projection - 19:10 BRT, 1.6% counted
Lula 52.7% (95% CI: 49.7-55.7)
Flávio Bolsonaro 47.3% (44.3-50.3)
Count so far: Lula 52.1%, Flávio 47.9%
#Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro
PLEASE NOTE: Take this with an extreme pinch of salt - built v quickly, but
🇧🇷 Brazil runoff projection - 1.5% counted
Lula 52.2% (95% CI: 48.7-55.6)
Flávio Bolsonaro 47.8% (44.4-51.3)
Count so far: Lula 52.2%, Flávio 47.8%
#Eleições2026 #Lula #Bolsonaro