Excess Returns | SignalBridge Wealth https://xitter.twitterapi.xyz/t.co/Qc8NFhmhkP
Fairfield, CT
Joined August 2017
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This was so much fun.
@CliffordAsness joins @CultishCreative and me on @excessreturnpod to walk through the greatest hits of his research.
We covered:
• Bubble Logic and what investors still get wrong about bubbles
• Why volatility is a useful measure of risk
• The myth of “cash on the sidelines”
• How private markets hide volatility
• Why missing the best (and worst) 10 days is a bad argument
• The case for international diversification
• When to pull the goalie in hockey
• Machine learning, overfitting and the future of quant investing
bit.ly/4wLUk00
Jack Forehand retweeted
When Kevin Warsh asked for a Bloomberg terminal at the Fed, IT told him there was only one in the building.
"I need to follow the markets."
Peter Boockvar recalls the story Warsh told at a 2013 conference.
Jack Forehand retweeted
Betting apps are Fritos. Patient investing is a blueberry.
"They're wired for you to feel expert, for you to feel engaged, to feel hopeful, to get hooked."
Daniel Crosby on the design choices that keep people coming back.
Jack Forehand retweeted
A stock at its 52-week high can offer a better return than one at its 52-week low.
"It's not price alone, right?"
Chris Mayer weighs the price against the business and its expected long-term return.
Jack Forehand retweeted
Thanks to Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@JJCarbonneau) from the Excess Return Podcast for having me back for an update on the economy and the financial markets. Watch by tapping the YouTube link below. PaulsenPerspectives.Substack…
youtu.be/eYYGCxT3JUY
Jack Forehand retweeted
"There is no universal playbook for investing."
"Whatever you have to do to get to the place that you can stick to the strategy through thick and thin."
Michael Batnick on the one lesson he would teach the average investor.
Jack Forehand retweeted
"One of the real hallmarks to me of a great management team is the willingness to admit mistakes."
Tom Maher looks for clear goals, realistic expectations and evidence that managers recognized what went wrong and changed course.
Jack Forehand retweeted
"When you're firing the hose at a blaze, you don't know how much water you're gonna put on."
Michael Howell on why fighting a debt crisis can fuel the next asset boom: central banks add liquidity to prevent defaults from spreading, then struggle to control how much they've added.
Jack Forehand retweeted
Inflation can make a healthy-looking profit less impressive than it seems.
Yesterday's CPI report showed consumer prices rose 0.4% in October.
"You want businesses that can adapt to it."
In this earlier conversation, Joel Tillinghast looks for pricing power, cost flexibility and returns that hold up after inflation.
Jack Forehand retweeted
A low P/E tells you only part of what you're buying.
"What am I paying for that future growth path?"
Mike Hunstad compares valuations among companies with similar growth expectations, rather than simply ranking the whole market from cheap to expensive.
Jack Forehand retweeted
New volatile markets edition of 100-Year Thinkers on @excessreturnpod out now!
ft. @RobertGHagstrom @chriswmayer @bogumil_nyc
youtu.be/G32zyl-aaoo?si=du4J…
Jack Forehand retweeted
"All of my winners basically only outperform the market fifty percent of the time."
Robert Hagstrom looked back at stocks he'd held for 10–12 years. Even his biggest successes had drawdowns and stretches of underperformance. Their revenue and earnings growth made the wait worthwhile.
Jack Forehand retweeted
"Who would rather sell ketchup and cream cheese than high-bandwidth memory?"
"I raised my hand because we own Kraft Heinz."
Peter Boockvar looks for ideas on the 52-week-low list. But he wants a business that can improve, not a "melting ice cube."
Jack Forehand retweeted
"You don't want to just say, 'I only buy the lowest PEs,' because that might not make sense."
"If you could pay up a little bit for a great business, that's what you want to do."
Scott McBride on the one lesson he would teach the average investor.
Jack Forehand retweeted
If you want a quick update on global liquidity, AI Capex, semiconductor earnings, market concentration, and more,
@excessreturnpod (re: our brilliant guests) have you covered. We do this highlights show weekly, come watch: youtu.be/5_H7PCUWYVc?si=dOYP…
Jack Forehand retweeted
Mike Green thinks passive investing helps explain why cheap stocks stay cheap.
"The aggregate marginal flow is against it."
His argument: value investors buy based on price versus worth. Passive funds allocate by market value.
Jack Forehand retweeted
Would you buy your existing positions at today's prices?
After last week's selloff, a lesson Jack Schwager took from Paul Tudor Jones: don't get comfortable just because you're still sitting on a gain.
"Would I want this position at this price with my risk point today?"
Jack Forehand retweeted
What happens to consumer spending when stocks stop paying the difference?
"The problem is that de-savings-driven expansion is really reliant on asset prices continuing to rise."
Bob Elliott on the gap being filled by savings and asset wealth rather than growth in paychecks.
Jack Forehand retweeted
The S&P 500 holds roughly 500 stocks. In Kai Wu's snapshot, its unequal weights give it about 50 effective holdings.
"It's a lot less than you might think."
Jack Forehand retweeted
In calm markets, the Fed isn't the whole liquidity story.
"The private sector is really in control of credit creation."
Michael Howell on how banks and collateral expand liquidity, and why the Fed takes center stage in a crisis.