UNC ‘27 | Writer @emergencydocket | Founder of HillCast | All opinions are my own “I am proud to be a Tar Heel” — Preston Hill, Fox News
North Carolina, USA
Joined May 2022
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Last week, I launched the Election HillCast, my midterm election model with interactive data for all 435 races in the House and 35 in the Senate!
Here is what the House HillCast looks like!
Check it out if you're into election modeling and share with friends!
Linked below:
Preston Hill retweeted
Scott Colom has more votes in Mississippi in a midterm year than Kamala Harris had in 2024.
Preston Hill retweeted
2026 North Carolina State Legislative Election Results by margin:
Tipping point seats:
NC House - HD-119: D+4.5
NC Senate - SD-34: R+0.4
Republicans have a *very* narrow path to retake the Senate in 2028, as mapped out below.
However, such a path doesn't exist without also winning the White House.
15
26
2,114
Running someone with the last name Bush in Texas is certainly one way to win the state back.
Republicans should start recruiting candidates for 2030 statewide offices
Governor: @georgepbush or @Bethvanduyne
LT Governor: @chiproytx or @MayorMattie
Attorney General: @MorganMeyerTX / Eva Guzman
It’s more likely James Talarico goes for President or VP in 2028 now that Texas has a Democratic Governor who could replace him with another Democrat.
Although I doubt he does either since he’s not even in the Senate yet and would basically have to start running in a few months.
Politico: James Talarico is expected to attend gathering of 2028 presidential hopefuls in Denver on Thursday.
Link to article: politico.com/newsletters/for…
If Ron Johnson retires, Eric Hovde would be a great choice for Republicans to run for the Wisconsin Senate race in 2028.
Wis Politics: Eric Hovde (R) says he'd consider running for Wisconsin's US Senate seat in 2028 if Ron Johnson doesn't seek another term.
wispolitics.com/2026/hovde-s…
Who do you think will start off as the favorite in the 2028 Democratic primary?
27%Kamala Harris
8%AOC
62%Jon Ossoff
4%Pete Buttigieg
224 votes • 21 hours 3
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1,014
Correct take.
Using the logic that North Carolina is a dummymander, Ohio, Colorado, and Pennsylvania would be “dummymanders” in this environment too.
Y'all a good gerrymander is one that nets a party more seats in a *neutral* environment. Ofc the NC GOP is not netting seats in a D+14 year. A map doesnt become a dummymander over one cycle. A map becomes a dummymander when rapid *trends* shift the baseline of the seats
4
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1,680
Preston Hill retweeted
Way too early ratings for the North Carolina U.S. House races in 2028.
Of course, this depends heavily on the environment, but Roy Cooper won't be at the top of the ticket this time either.
Preston Hill retweeted
Almost done with my President 2024 ➡️ Congress 2026 trend map, but still waiting on California and Alaska to finish up.
Lesson learned in my first year modeling/predicting elections.
If my own model says something, I should be inclined to believe it even if it seems unbelievable.
Because nothing is off the table in elections.
2026 North Carolina State Legislative Election Results by margin:
Tipping point seats:
NC House - HD-119: D+4.5
NC Senate - SD-34: R+0.4
Way too early ratings for the North Carolina U.S. House races in 2028.
Of course, this depends heavily on the environment, but Roy Cooper won't be at the top of the ticket this time either.
Young men shifted 40 points toward Democrats from 2024 to 2026, the biggest shift among all age groups.
Republicans need to figure out how to not only win these voters back, but get them out to actually vote in 2028, because they didn't in 2026.
Scoop — Stephen Miller's post-midterm focus: MAGA and men axios.com/2026/11/11/stephen…
