
COO @ChinaBeigeBook. Tweet on economic, geopolitical, and policy issues driving financial markets. Views my own. RTs & Likes ≠ endorsement.
New York City
Joined October 2010
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Can markets continue betting on "strategic stability" in US-China relations? Great convo w/ @FerroTV @annmarie @lisaabramowicz1 on the Trump-Xi summit.
Plus fresh signals of economic weakness in @ChinaBeigeBook's latest data.
@bsurveillance @BloombergTV
youtube.com/watch?v=DnuAjmd1…
“Northwestern Polytechnical University bought 2 H200 chips last month for $123,000 per procurement record on its website. Northwestern is a member of the "Seven Sons of National Defense" group of Chinese unis under US sanctions & history of conducting defence-related research”
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Incoming HFAC chair’s views on China are diametrically opposed to the bipartisan work done by the SCC
New - Some Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee are encouraging leaders to scrap the China committee
Ami Bera: "we’ve already got a Foreign Affairs Committee, we’ve already got the Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific..."
w/ @Eleanor_Mueller
semafor.com/article/11/11/20…
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“..multi-strats are likely to capitalize on further volatility into 2027. Many pod shops & macro strategies are up double digits this year, despite some lackluster returns felt across the industry in pockets in recent months.”
POD SHOP PREDICTION: Across my travels in Dubai, Singapore & New York in a single week, hedge funds have probably been the No. 1 topic of conversation.
My thinking? The biggest are set to get bigger, particularly as pods have closed across the street. It could make it harder for talent to have leverage, and multi-strats are likely to capitalize on further volatility into 2027. Many pod shops & macro strategies are up double digits this year, despite some lackluster returns felt across the industry in pockets in recent months.
Powder is still dry. The industry's assets surpassed $5.6 trillion in the third quarter of this year, according to HFR data, while this year's inflows are expected to surpass 2025 -- the most robust year since 2007.
Was last week brutal for many? Of course it was. But in a single chart, this is why investors are not feeling enormously stung by the "quant quake" felt of late. Should bond market volatility stay elevated, the probability of loss at the pod shops tends to be far less than what you'd see in even traditional instruments: Stocks, bonds, Treasuries and the 60/40.
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"firm behind one of China’s most adv AI models signed a contract in Aug to rent 32 Super Micro Computer servers equipped w/ $NVDA B300 GPUs, most powerful AI accelerators on the mkt..filings valued servers at $64.8M & said they were located in China..possible breach of US rules"
Moonshot AI accessed a trove of Nvidia’s most advanced chips this summer, according to documents filed with Beijing regulators, highlighting the Chinese AI champion’s reliance on American hardware despite US export restrictions bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
"After the 2023 meeting in Singapore, Ms Huang used her experience & connections in the world of Shanghai finance to work her way into tech circles. She turned Megaspeed into a destination for $NVDA technology, working w/ longtime business partner often introduced as her husband"
The Woman in the Middle of Nvidia’s Spy Scandal
Alice Huang, who U.S. intelligence determined is a Chinese asset, emerged from the high-flying world of Shanghai finance to work with tech titans and obtain essential A.I. chips.
nytimes.com/2026/11/10/techn…
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"Neither US EXIM Bank nor IDFC plan to fund the tungsten-mining venture for which they issued letters of interest last yr..Bank officials are concerned about the project’s prospects & geopolitical risks given Kazakhstan’s location wedged b/w US rivals China and Russia" @JoeDeaux
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"Chinese firm Z.AI's flagship AI model carried out complex cyberattacks in controlled simulations and repeatedly ignored instructions in separate tests, according to a report, opens new tab by AI security research firm Irregular."
reuters.com/world/china/chin…
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China October trade data:
Exports +35.2% (vs +36.3% in Sep)
Imports +41.6% (vs +31%)
Surplus $105.28B (vs $133.5B)
Those following JH/Nvidia's policy stances since before the "spy who shagged me" scandal were already suspicious and justifiably so. This is a Silicon Valley CEO whose overarching concern is making money. He's talking his book. What he says makes sense only within that context.
okay asian baddy gf aside, what he’s saying here makes total sense and it’s really funny that everything will now be seen from the lense that he’s compromised
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"Tim Teter, $NVDA GC said [BIS Undersecretary] Jeff Kessler had given Nvidia permission to reach out about the case..The agents were alarmed..Some viewed Kessler’s interaction w/ $NVDA as violating govt procedure & potentially tainting the case, per current & former officials.."
New: The Commerce Dept investigation into Megaspeed, the firm led by the Chinese spy who had a relationship with Jensen Huang, was suddenly suspended last year after an interaction between Nvidia and a top Commerce Department official. nytimes.com/2026/11/09/busin…
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Former editor-in-chief of Global Times
By any standard logic—given how vital both Jensen Huang and Nvidia are to the United States—if U.S. intelligence agencies had truly determined that Alice Huang was a "Chinese female spy," they ought to have issued a private warning to Jensen Huang first. Instead, they leaked the matter directly to the media, triggering an explosive public controversy that caught Jensen Huang completely off guard and forced him to admit to an extramarital affair and issue a public apology. This was a deliberate slap in the face to both Jensen Huang and Nvidia, clearly driven by calculated political motives.
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That’s right. Everyone just move on.
An alert:
@JensenHuang is human. And he is an incredible human. Even incredible humans make mistakes.
He takes full responsibility as he should.
We should all support him and his family.
Onward.
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“Barring an extension at one of the upcoming summits, we are looking at a period of possible economic tension and escalation in January without a summit on the horizon to put the brakes on a spiral.”
This raises an interesting question. The Trump administration feels Beijing has not fulfilled the Busan agreement. Others disagree.
So who is right? And what does this mean for the next few months and for next year?
It's worth first setting the scene. The Trump administration erred in starting a trade war, taking tariffs on China to 140%, and then folding abruptly when Beijing retaliated with rare earths. That resulted in the Busan deal with Beijing last year. But it implementation is mixed.
First, the United States was supposed to suspend the affiliates rule and lower tariffs, and it did. The affiliates rule remains suspended, and on tariffs, as @Brad_Setser notes, "the U.S. has actually over delivered on its Busan commitments (the term 2 tariffs fell to 12.5%, well below the 20% cap)." SCOTUS played a role, of course.
Second, China was supposed to let rare earths flow, and they have not. The administration claims, and data indicates, that those flows are below what they should be by 30-50%. U.S. companies are not getting licenses. US consultancies and trade associations are trying to help them navigate MOFCOM. What's more, the "truce" was extended to January 10, and as far as I can tell MOFCOM hasn't issued a guidance formally extending the suspension date of its rare earth controls.
Third, the items Kyle (and others ) raise aren't part of the deal. Clearing the BIS license queue was never part of Busan, and even so, the US did license H200 exports. Implementation of the 30-for-30 tariff cuts are not part of Busan either, and they were designed to take effect after going through domestic processes, by MOFCOM's own admission.
Fourth, there is a lack of proportionality here, too. The licensing queue and thirty-for-thirty deal are not existential for Chinese companies. But rare earths access is a gun to the head of the entire US economy.
So what does all this mean?
In November, Trump and Xi will have an awkward meeting in Shenzhen. In December, they'll have an awkward meeting in Miami. And then in January, they won't have any meetings. The truce will expire on January 10th.
Barring an extension at one of the upcoming summits, we are looking at a period of possible economic tension and escalation in January without a summit on the horizon to put the brakes on a spiral.
So if 2026 was the year of so-called detente, 2027 may bring something different. I don't think this is priced in by analysts or the markets.
I heard one data center executive tell a smallish group of us yesterday that what they really had was a “marketing problem.” For example if data centers were more visually appealing it would help their cause. Not kidding.
This would be a healthy equilibrium. But also what that their pitch should have been from the beginning.
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Here the question is how their cashmere sweaters/knits actually compare to J. Crew, which is the brand they’re copying and claiming 50% cheaper on.
Replying to @dieworkwear
A similar issue here with their $60 cashmere sweaters. In a 2025 Washington Post article, lab testers found Quince sweaters to perform the worst of all "budget" cashmere knits. They are most prone to pilling, losing color, and falling apart.
xitter.twitterapi.xyz/dieworkwear/status/210…
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