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Top games by monthly active users across PlayStation and Xbox, @alineaanalytics estimates (average MAUs this year). When the GTA 6 floodgates open on November 19, it’s going to be the biggest entertainment launch of all time, sucking players away from top games live games on console. The engagement whirlpool is coming. Anyway... - Fortnite averaged 47.9M MAUs a month across PlayStation (72.3%) and Xbox this year. In a given month, 15% to 20% of Fortnite players also play GTA 5 that month. Fortnite has the biggest monthly audience across both platforms, so even a small share of players jumping ship to GTA 6 will be a chunky number. - Minecraft pulled in 24.2M a month (55.1% PlayStation, with the Xbox share bigger than usual due Game Pass). About 20% of monthly Minecraft players also play GTA 5 in a given month this year. - Roblox attracts 22.9M a month (67.1% PlayStation). Relatively speaking, Roblox is among the most vulnerable on the list, as 20% to 25% of its players also play GTA 5 every month. - Grand Theft Auto 5 still brings in a frankly silly 22.8M MAUs across PlayStation (83.8%) and Xbox. Obviously, much of the console spending on GTA Online will be stunted for a bit. - Rocket League rounds off the top 5 with 20.6M MAUs (73.2% PlayStation), with around 15% also playing GTA 5 each month. That’s the lowest overlap here on the lowest MAU number, but Rocket League will also be impacted. Generally speaking, these games will take sharp DAU hits when GTA 6 lands, but they’ll claw most of it back once the honeymoon period is over. Players will return to their routines (drawn back in by live updates – as ever). For many players, GTA 6 is a temporary whirlpool, not a sinking. But GTA Online – of which we’ve heard very little so far – is another kettle of fish and could do some far longer-term damage. I expect we’ll hear more about that soon. More on Substack.