The Tectonic

🇪🇺 🇷🇺 There’s been a change in how European governments speak about the Russian threat. Within 48 hours, a wave of statements and mobilization across NATO’s eastern flank has coalesced into a clear and worrying pattern. 🇵🇱 Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk says intelligence shared by Poland, Ukraine and NATO indicates Russia could eventually conduct drone or missile attacks against countries supporting Ukraine while attempting to portray them as accidents. 🇫🇷 In Paris, Emmanuel Macron emerged from a three-hour meeting with France's intelligence chiefs and political leaders warning that the Russian hybrid threat has intensified. France is reinforcing protection of critical infrastructure and defense-production sites. 🇩🇪 Those warnings are not emerging in a vacuum. Germany has formally attributed the attempted explosive-drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport to Russia, with subsequent investigations reportedly tracing the operation toward Russian military intelligence. German authorities are also investigating a professionally prepared weapons cache discovered in woodland near Berlin, two handguns and ammunition that officials say were intended for future attacks, including possible links to a foreign intelligence service. 🇪🇪 Further north, Estonia's security cabinet is preparing for another contingency: a possible Russian general mobilization. Prime Minister Kristen Michal says such a move could change Estonia's threat assessment sufficiently for Tallinn to close its border with Russia immediately. 🇱🇹 Lithuania, meanwhile, has detailed evacuation planning for a major military emergency. One of the evacuation routes from Vilnius leads toward Poland, where authorities in Podlaskie are preparing the region to serve as a transit corridor for evacuees from the Baltic states. That planning predates this week's warnings and should not be interpreted as evidence that an attack is believed to be imminent. But the regional context has deteriorated. 🇧🇾 Belarus is currently conducting military exercises near the Polish and Lithuanian borders, including areas around the strategically critical Suwałki Gap. And earlier this week, a NATO fighter shot down a suspected Russian attack drone after it entered Lithuanian airspace from Belarus. None of this establishes that European governments expect a Russian attack in the immediate future. What it does show is something more concrete: governments from Warsaw to Paris to Tallinn are publicly preparing their populations and institutions for contingencies that until recently largely remained inside military planning documents.

🇪🇺 🇷🇺 Some 55 Europe's leaders gather in Dublin on Thursday with a question hanging over the room: who speaks for Europe when Washington and Moscow discuss its future? Ireland hosts about 55 leaders of the European Political Community, the club formed after Russia's full invasion of Ukraine in 2022, on Thursday, followed by an informal summit of the 27 EU leaders on Friday, EUobserver reports. Irish police are preparing what EUobserver calls the largest security operation in the country's history. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is already in Dublin, and US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner plan to meet him on Thursday night after seeing Vladimir Putin in Moscow. France wants to use the meeting to show Europe taking charge. An Elysee source told Agence Europe that President Emmanuel Macron will propose "key principles concerning the future of European security," aiming to win as many signatures as possible for shared objectives ranging from defense industry to hybrid threats and information manipulation. On Friday, EU Council President Antonio Costa has agreed to open a debate on creating an EU envoy for the peace process. An EU source told EUobserver the first discussion would cover the role's structure and mandate, with names left for the December summit. Zelensky wants it settled by the end of November so that all sides can "speak at the level of leaders." The pressure comes from the talks Europe was not fully part of. Axios reports that in Abu Dhabi the US asked Russia to draft a new security proposal for Europe and pushed Moscow to accept European representatives in the next round. Russia has refused so far. Inside Europe, Poland has criticized the so-called Shell Bay format, named after a Florida golf club, in which France, Germany and the UK spoke for the continent. "The last thing we want is western Europe dealing with Russia over the heads of the east Europeans," Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski said last week. Money is the other fight. Friday's EU meeting will also take up the next long-term budget, where Chancellor Friedrich Merz is trying to tie approval to new Ukraine financing, drawing fire from Slovakia, Czechia, Hungary and Bulgaria. Why it matters: Europeans have spent a year demanding a seat at the table. Dublin will show whether they can agree on who sits in it and what they would say.

🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Zelensky says Russia's delegation in Abu Dhabi lacked the authority to agree to a ceasefire, leaving key Ukrainian proposals unanswered and pushing the decisions directly to Vladimir Putin. According to the Ukrainian president, negotiators presented Moscow's representatives with several options: a general ceasefire, a halt to attacks on energy facilities, an end to strikes at sea and protection for critical infrastructure. The Russian delegation, led by Vladimir Medinsky, did not commit to any of them. Zelensky said Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner would raise these proposals directly with Putin during their meeting in Moscow on Thursday. Kyiv expects Washington to return with answers after those discussions. The remarks expose a central limitation of the Abu Dhabi negotiations. While the delegations could discuss humanitarian arrangements and broader security proposals, Zelensky's account suggests that Russia's representatives were unable to make binding decisions on stopping the fighting. The next test is whether Putin is prepared to authorize even a limited ceasefire, particularly on energy infrastructure, while negotiations over territory and Europe's security architecture continue.

🇺🇲 🇷🇺 🇪🇺 Scoop: Washington asks Putin to write a new security offer for Europe, with "symmetrical steps" to calm the continent The Trump administration wants Vladimir Putin to put his demands for Europe's security on paper, and to say what Russia would give in return. According to Axios, citing two sources with knowledge of the matter, US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner asked Russian negotiators in Abu Dhabi to submit a new proposal for a future security agreement with Europe. The sources say Russia's team told the room that Putin launched the invasion because President Biden never answered his 2021 letter on security. Kushner and Witkoff replied that the world has changed since 2021 and asked Moscow to draft a fresh offer that lays out its concerns and also the "symmetrical steps" it would take to de-escalate and reassure Europe it will not attack again. Kushner described the message publicly after the talks. "We told the Russians, they have their desires and fears, but they have to provide different de-escalation and different proposals as well, if they want Europe to be able to receive those proposals in a good way." The envoys meet Putin in Moscow on Thursday morning, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told TASS, and Axios says they will repeat the request there. They also want Putin to let European representatives join the next round of Russia-Ukraine talks. Moscow has refused so far. Russia's chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said after Abu Dhabi that he did not understand what could be discussed with European leaders, while also saying Russia wants a broader security deal with Europe as part of ending the war. "In Ukraine, an abscess has simply burst," he said. "The entire body needs to be treated." The sources told Axios that European officials in Abu Dhabi agreed to work on both tracks at once, the war and the wider architecture, while insisting that final decisions on European security come only after the war ends. A source familiar with White House thinking said Washington will not sign a security deal with Russia unless Europe and Ukraine are on board, and will not give Moscow a veto over Europe's security choices. Why it matters: for years the US rejected Russia's demands to limit NATO and pull back forces from Eastern Europe. Washington now appears open to discussing them in some form. Europeans are deeply suspicious, and their leaders gather in Dublin on Thursday as Witkoff and Kushner fly there from Moscow to see Zelensky.

🇺🇲 US prosecutors say an Iranian operative jailed in New York helped run the plot against RAF Fairford, home to American bombers The suspicious vans that drove toward a British air base hosting American B-1 bombers in September were part of an Iranian-backed terror plot run partly from a New York jail cell, according to a US indictment unsealed this week. The Justice Department has charged three men: Iranian national Mohsen Mohajeri, Iraqi national Mohammad Ali al-Hassani and dual Iranian-Iraqi citizen Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood al-Saadi. Prosecutors link them to 18 attacks and attempted attacks in the US and Europe, including in London, Amsterdam and Paris, carried out in the name of a group called Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiya. Some of the incidents, the DOJ says, were directed over FaceTime. The most striking allegation concerns al-Saadi, whom prosecutors associate with Kata'ib Hezbollah and Iran's Revolutionary Guards. He was already in US custody when, according to the indictment, he planned the Fairford attack as retribution for the US war on Iran and passed instructions to co-conspirators through coded messages in phone calls to his family. The DOJ says al-Hassani orchestrated the operation on the ground. In August he allegedly paid a man to carry out surveillance of the base perimeter. In September he allegedly paid others to buy vans and barrels of fuel, research chemical accelerants including large quantities of potassium chloride, and buy metal objects that could serve as shrapnel. The vans were disguised as fuel delivery and pool supply vehicles, and on September 26 he allegedly tasked people to drive three of them to the base. British police declared a major incident on September 27. No explosives were found, but petrol was seized, and seven men have been arrested in the UK. Two were charged in London in October under the National Security Act, one accused of assisting a foreign intelligence service. Iran strongly denies any involvement. The US withdrew its bombers from Fairford after the incident, with President Trump citing "some threats." Why it matters: if the allegations hold up in court, Iran's war with the United States reached a base on allied soil through hired local operatives and a prisoner inside the American justice system. Al-Saadi is due in court on November 19.

🇺🇲 🇮🇷 Vance weighs direct talks with Iran's top security official Vice President JD Vance is considering face-to-face talks with Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, as he emerges as the lead US negotiator with Tehran, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday. The paper framed the effort as a push to end a war seen as a drag on the Republican Party. Citing unnamed US and Middle Eastern officials and people familiar with the negotiations, the Journal reported that President Donald Trump has told top aides and foreign counterparts he is open to Vance restarting talks and has empowered him to negotiate. Discussions about a meeting remain preliminary and no date has been set, according to the report, with Doha a possible venue. A Vance spokesman declined to comment. Vance wrote to Rezaei in October proposing direct negotiations. Rezaei, a former Revolutionary Guards commander who became council secretary in August, said on Oct 31 that he had read the letter but had not replied. According to the Journal, Vance has taken a more active role on Iran than envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and he met Qatar's prime minister, a central mediator, on Monday. The paper also reported that Trump has privately criticized the June memorandum of understanding that Vance helped negotiate. The White House denied any second thoughts. Tehran's public line remains hard. Rezaei posted on X on Monday: "The war on Iran has already wrecked the US government. But Washington flails like a desperate gambler. FOLD YOUR HAND. STOP manufacturing FAKE NEWS about imaginary talks. Stop denying the West Asian NEW ORDER. Time to SURRENDER to the seven conditions Iran has repeatedly set out." Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Tuesday there were no plans for a Rezaei-Vance meeting, and Rezaei dismissed reports of one in a TV interview this week. A senior Iranian security official was quoted by Iranian media as saying no talks are envisaged unless Washington takes practical steps within the framework of the seven conditions. As listed by Iranian state media, those conditions are an end to hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen; release of frozen Iranian assets; a full lifting of the US naval blockade; removal of sanctions; withdrawal of US naval and air forces from the region; war reparations; and an end to threats and insults. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Iran's conditions "absurd" in Paris on Tuesday, while saying that "if there's a real deal to be done, we're open." Mediators have floated confidence-building steps, the Journal reported, including a US pullback of aircraft carriers and an easing of the port blockade in exchange for Iran letting 25 tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials remain skeptical a deal is near and wary of further US strikes, according to the Journal. Their distrust traces back to February: the US and Israel launched the war on Feb 28, two days after a third round of Oman-mediated nuclear talks in Geneva, with technical talks scheduled in Vienna the following week. What to watch: whether Tehran answers Vance's outreach, whether a Doha meeting materializes, and whether Washington moves on the blockade.

🇺🇲 Robert Garcia responds to White House warning: “We're not going to be intimidated.” The Democrat expected to chair the House Oversight Committee in January has directly challenged the Trump administration's warning that congressional investigations could cross into criminal conduct. “Congress is an equal branch of government. Our job is to serve as a check and balance and to investigate, especially if there is corruption,” Garcia said. He accused Trump of attempting to weaponize federal institutions against political opponents and vowed that Democrats would pursue their investigations aggressively. The confrontation is taking shape before the new Congress has even convened. The White House argues that congressional investigations must serve a legitimate legislative purpose and cannot be used to harass executive officials. Garcia maintains that the administration is attempting to intimidate lawmakers before they exercise their oversight powers. The dispute is setting up an early constitutional confrontation over subpoenas, executive privilege and the limits of congressional investigations.

🇺🇲 The White House warns House Democrats their planned Trump investigations "may cross the line into blatant criminality" White House counsel William Scharf has sent a three-page letter to Rep. Robert Garcia of California, the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee and its likely chairman in the new Congress. According to PBS News, which obtained the letter, Scharf writes to "remind" Garcia of the constitutional limits on congressional investigations, "which you and members of the new Congress have evinced a clear intent to transgress." He accuses Democrats of "abusive and capricious threats" against President Trump and his officials, and warns that probes meant to intimidate or interfere with the executive branch "may cross the line into blatant criminality." AP reports the letter is dated Monday. The trigger was Garcia's own election night message. As projections showed Democrats taking the House, he addressed the administration in two words: "Lawyer up." Democrats are preparing a broad oversight agenda, AP reports, covering how Trump and his family have grown wealthier since he returned to office, the Epstein case, immigration enforcement by ICE and White House building projects. The president and his aides have long denied any wrongdoing. Garcia did not back down. "It appears Donald Trump has something to hide," he said in a statement on Wednesday. "We are a co-equal branch of government and will not be deterred by baseless threats from a weaponized DOJ or from the President's lawyers." Oversight is one of the most basic powers Congress has, and administrations of both parties have fought subpoenas before, usually through privilege claims and court battles. A White House counsel suggesting in writing that the investigations themselves could be criminal is a sharper opening move, and it comes from the same administration that runs the Justice Department. Why it matters: this is the first formal shot in what will define Trump's last two years in office. Republicans have just picked Jim Jordan, a veteran of oversight fights, to lead them in the minority, and the White House has now signaled it is ready to treat Democratic subpoenas as hostile acts. Expect the fight to land in the courts early in 2027.

🇺🇦 Four years ago today, on November 11, 2022, Ukrainian forces entered Kherson after more than eight months of Russian occupation. Thousands of residents poured into the streets, waving Ukrainian flags, embracing soldiers and celebrating the return of their city. Kherson had been the only Ukrainian regional capital captured by Russia during the opening phase of the full-scale invasion, and its liberation followed a Ukrainian counteroffensive that forced Russian troops to withdraw across the Dnipro River. Four years later, the celebrations are a distant memory for many residents. Kherson remains under Ukrainian control, but Russian forces positioned across the river continue to bombard the city, while much of the surrounding region remains contested or occupied. 📹 @CrimeanVoyager

🇵🇱 Warsaw. City authorities estimated attendance at 250,000, while organizers claimed approximately 500,000

🇵🇱 Poland's president joins massive nationalist march in Warsaw as political tensions deepen Hundreds of thousands of people marched through Warsaw on Wednesday to mark Poland's Independence Day, with President Karol Nawrocki joining the annual demonstration organized by nationalist groups. City authorities estimated attendance at 250,000, while organizers claimed approximately 500,000. The march commemorates Poland's restoration of independence in 1918, after 123 years of partition by Russia, Prussia and Austria. Many participants described their presence as an expression of patriotism and national identity. But the gathering also exposed the country's political divisions. Some demonstrators carried anti-immigration banners, including messages advocating a racially homogeneous Europe. Organizers called for a sovereign Poland and expressed opposition to mass immigration and foreign political influence. The event took place under heightened security following Saturday's mass shooting in Krakow, which killed six people. Polish authorities have said the suspected gunman may have been influenced by far-right extremism, an assessment that remains under investigation. Prime Minister Donald Tusk appealed for restraint and national unity, while leading opposition figures used the march to demonstrate their political strength ahead of the 2027 parliamentary elections. The demonstration also comes amid Poland's continuing constitutional crisis, with the government and opposition contesting the legitimacy of recent changes at the Constitutional Tribunal. Nawrocki's participation placed the presidency directly alongside a major mobilization of Poland's nationalist and conservative opposition, highlighting the political divisions confronting Tusk's government. 📹 @Sosnowski1944

🇫🇮 🇷🇺 Finland's President Alexander Stubb, one of the few European leaders in recent direct contact with Vladimir Putin, offered a sober read of where the Abu Dhabi process stands. "The maximalist demands are still there," Stubb told CNN's Christiane Amanpour, describing his recent conversation with Putin. "The two key issues, security and territory, will have to be dealt with on the leaders level, between Putin and Zelensky." Stubb said he spoke with US and Ukrainian negotiators after Wednesday's session and that "we can see some careful steps forward." He called Thursday's meeting in Moscow, where Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are due to see Putin, "crucial." If Europe can be around the table in future talks, he added, "that would be progress in and of itself." His assessment matches what both sides said on the record today. The only confirmed result from Abu Dhabi is an agreement in principle on a large prisoner exchange, and no leaders' meeting has been agreed. Hours earlier, Russia's lead negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said "every inch of our land will be returned to Russia, one way or another.

Houthi footage shows alleged drone strikes on Saudi-backed forces 📹 @TabzLIVE

🇮🇱 Israel's Rafael on November 11 unveiled Super Ice, a long-range cruise missile with a 1,000-pound warhead that can be fired from aircraft, ships and ground launchers, and that Breaking Defense describes as comparable in size to the American Tomahawk. Rafael chairman Yuval Steinitz called it the "best cruise missile of its kind in the world," saying it "offers an ideal solution for long-range stand-off strikes against high-value targets, including air-defense systems." A company video previewed to reporters showed the weapon striking a bunker, a ballistic missile launch site and large naval vessels, according to Breaking Defense. Super Ice is the third and largest member of Rafael's family of stand-off missiles, after Sea Breaker, introduced in 2021, and Ice Breaker, introduced in 2023. Ynet reports that its warhead is four times heavier than the previous missile in the family. Rafael says the warhead is MK83 compatible, a reference to the standard 1,000-pound American bomb, and that the missile uses the same launch systems as its smaller siblings, which lets customers add it without new infrastructure. On performance, Rafael said little. The company describes autonomous navigation, low-altitude terrain-following flight, all-weather operation and an electro-optical seeker that uses image matching. Breaking Defense adds that company material describes the missile as low-observable, enabled by artificial intelligence, able to operate where satellite navigation is jammed, and flying at high subsonic speed. Officials called it "strategic" but would not give its range beyond saying it exceeds that of the earlier missiles. Rafael would not say who has ordered it, what it costs, or whether it is operational. The Jerusalem Post reports the missile is expected to be operational around early 2027. The target list in the video is the story. Air defense radars, ballistic missile launchers and hardened bunkers are exactly what a state needs to reach first in a long-range air campaign, and a jammer-resistant, terrain-hugging missile with a large warhead lets aircraft do that from outside the reach of surface-to-air missiles. The Jerusalem Post reports Super Ice can be carried by Israel's F-35s, F-16s and F-15s. There is an export angle too. Rafael says it passed 1 billion dollars in orders for its cruise missiles in 2023 and sold more than 1,000 units by 2024, according to Breaking Defense. Super Ice lands in a crowded and growing market, where American newcomers such as Anduril are pitching cheaper long-range missiles and older firms are racing to raise output. For buyers who already field Sea Breaker or Ice Breaker, Rafael is offering a Tomahawk-class punch through launchers they already own.

🇫🇷 🇩🇪 🇷🇺 France is pressing Germany to spell out how it would use long-range missiles in a war with Russia, warning that a conventional strike deep inside Russia could be misread in Moscow, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday. According to the FT, which cites six people familiar with the talks, Paris wants Berlin's doctrine for "deep precision strikes" (DPS) aligned with France's nuclear strategy. "If the Russians don't get the signal right you could get to the nuclear threshold without realising," one French official told the paper. Another said France had developed a "nuclear grammar and vocabulary" over time: "The Germans do not have it." A "clear and pretty public doctrine," he said, would be "much better." Part of the French worry, per the FT, is President Emmanuel Macron's concept of "forward deterrence": officials fear Moscow would hold Paris accountable for strikes by partners. "If you invite someone into your house, you are responsible if they set it ablaze," one official said. Berlin says it agrees. A senior German official told the FT that Germany "could not agree more" that European capitals need "a joint doctrine and a joint understanding about the escalation ladder." He added: "It's not something that the French are asking for and we are resisting." He said formal talks had been held up by France's own internal nuclear debate and that one possible outcome is a joint German, French and British statement, still "some way off." The German defence ministry said it is developing DPS capabilities with Britain and exploring including France. London played down the French fears. A senior British official told the FT that Germany's strategic culture "is evolving quickly" and warned against clinging "to past stereotypes." He said DPS would target sites such as command centres, logistics hubs, ammunition depots and weapons factories, "not government buildings or nuclear facilities." What Germany is building: the FT says ground-launched missiles with ranges from 500 km to more than 2,000 km. Britain and Germany are jointly developing weapons with a range above 2,000 km under their 2024 defence agreement; POLITICO reports a UK-led stealth cruise missile for around 2032 and a German-led hypersonic glide vehicle for around 2035. Berlin also still intends to buy US Typhon launchers with Tomahawk missiles, though internal documents seen by POLITICO put first deliveries no earlier than the early 2030s. Gen. Ingo Gerhartz, the German officer who heads the NATO command for central Europe and the eastern flank, told the Berlin Security Conference last week that deep strikes must be coordinated with allies, because Moscow "will attribute it [to the] whole [of] Nato." What to watch: the Franco-German Nuclear Steering Group, whether France joins the UK-German programme, and any Kremlin response, none of which had been reported by midday Wednesday.

🇮🇷 Iran's top security official has warned countries that host US forces that their bases will be treated as targets if American aircraft use them to attack Iran. "We will consider any location from which American aircraft take off to be a threat to us. We are making this clear now so that they will have no excuses tomorrow," Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, said in an interview with the Beirut-based channel Al Mayadeen published on Wednesday, according to Al Manar's Arabic text. He advised every country hosting US bases not to cooperate with any American attack on Iran. He looked beyond the Gulf. "If the Americans make a mistake and attack us, we will not limit ourselves to nearby bases," he said, according to Iran International. "We may even target some American military bases in European countries." He also spoke of "some islands they think our missiles cannot reach." Reuters quoted him as saying: "Any new US attacks will also be met with targeting US bases far away." He named no specific base or country. Rezaei, who commanded the Revolutionary Guards from 1981 to 1997, became council secretary in August. He replaced Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, who had taken the post after Ali Larijani was killed in US-Israeli strikes in March. ⚠️ In the same interview Rezaei said there are no negotiations with Washington at present, called reports of a planned meeting with Vice President JD Vance "lies," and said the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until the US accepts Iran's seven conditions, according to Iran International and Radio Farda. He also said Iran will not allow any of its enriched nuclear material to leave the country, Reuters reported. The warning comes as Washington lowers its tone. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that renewed US strikes were "highly unlikely," and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said economic pressure on Tehran was working. Qatar says its mediation continues. On Monday at least 10 US KC-135 tankers left RAF Mildenhall in England, a move the Wall Street Journal linked to a threat from Iran; Britain says its bases are safe. On Tuesday the IRGC showed footage of an underground "missile city," and Bloomberg reported a Western estimate that Iran can still build about 50 ballistic missiles a month. Whether Iran can reach Europe is uncertain. Iran International, citing CSIS, notes that Iran's main ballistic missiles have ranges of about 2,000 km, with some variants perhaps reaching 3,000. What to watch: responses from host governments in the Gulf and Europe and from the Pentagon, the Qatari mediation and Iran's seven conditions, and further force protection moves at US bases in Britain and elsewhere. 📹 @sentdefender

🇷🇺 Medinsky: "Russia sees no possibility of any territorial exchanges with Ukraine. If negotiations succeed in establishing a fair security system, peace in Europe will be secured for decades."

⚠️ Four agencies wanted Megaspeed on the trade blacklist. Commerce has not added it, the FT reports The Singapore cloud company at the center of the Jensen Huang spy scandal is still free to buy American technology, and according to the Financial Times, that is because the Commerce Department has slowed the process. The FT reported Tuesday, citing multiple people familiar with the talks, that the State, Defense, Energy and Treasury departments pushed to add Megaspeed to the Entity List, the US export control blacklist. Commerce, which runs the interagency committee that decides listings, has tried to slow new additions for about two months, and Megaspeed remains off the list. Commerce officials told other agencies they needed more information on some companies; the FT said it was unclear whether Megaspeed was one of them. Megaspeed, spun out of Chinese gaming firm 7Road in 2023, is an official Nvidia cloud partner and has been under US investigation for more than a year over suspected smuggling of Nvidia AI chips to China. Singapore filings list Alice Huang, the woman the Nvidia CEO has admitted an affair with and who faces allegations of spying for China, as a Megaspeed director through November 2023. The allegations against her are unproven, and Beijing denies them. The sharpest criticism comes from a former insider. "It's hard to understand how Commerce knew for months that Megaspeed was being run by a Chinese spy and yet took no action to stop it from purchasing $4.8 billion worth of Nvidia chips," Chris McGuire, a former senior export control official, told the FT. Commerce did not address Megaspeed directly, saying it has charged 17 defendants in six chip smuggling cases. Nvidia says it put Megaspeed on an internal block list in June 2025 and halted further sales and shipments. This lands on a Congress already moving on chip export bills and on a Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, now facing questions about why his department paused a probe that NBC News and the New York Times say moved to the Justice Department after Nvidia contacted investigators. What to watch: whether Megaspeed appears on the next Entity List update, and whether lawmakers demand Commerce's internal records on the delay. Video: "There you go... Megaspeed is a shell company that sent all of their GPUs directly to China illegally... Jensen Huang was fully aware of this." - @FinanceLancelot xitter-newx.xyz-mikolabs.workers.dev/thetect0nic/status/212…