tkb picks

🎯 Alex Michelsen ML (-450) 1u - Michelsen has dropped just 10 games in 2 Stockholm matches, beating Yannick Hanfmann 6-2 6-3 and Juan Manuel Cerundolo 6-3 6-2, while Tabilo needed 2 hours 53 minutes to get past Lorenzo Sonego on Wednesday and now has to open Thursday's schedule. - Tabilo walked into Stockholm on a 4-match losing streak, his last win before this week coming in the Tokyo first round, and this is his first career appearance at the event. - Their only meeting went Michelsen's way 3-6 6-3 6-4 in Miami this March, and the 22-year-old has since added his first Grand Slam quarterfinal at the US Open.

🎯 Cal +8.5 (-110) 1u - USC has to win by 9 or more in Berkeley, but an efficiency projection lands near USC by 3 to 4, 79-75, leaving Cal about five points of room before this number is even threatened. - USC rates top 35 by adjusted efficiency and Cal top 100, roughly a 6 to 7 point gap on a neutral floor; Cal went 17-5 at Haas last season, and 3 points of home court shrinks that to one possession. - Cal launches 28 threes a game, 46% of its shots through three games, and that volume can erase a 9 point deficit in three trips late, which keeps a home dog live against a number this wide.

🎯 Macklin Celebrini OVER 3.5 Shots On Goal (-120) 1u - Celebrini centers Michael Misa and Will Smith on San Jose's top line and works the first power-play unit with Smith, Alexander Wennberg, Ivar Stenberg and Jacob Trouba, so the Sharks' best shooting looks start with him. - Shot totals of 5, 6, 6 and 6 over his last four games, from Nov. 4 at Los Angeles to Nov. 9 against the Islanders, sit on top of a median of 5 over his last 15, a shot and a half above this line. - Pittsburgh has Ryan Graves and Trevor van Riemsdyk on injured reserve, which puts Spencer Stastney and Declan Carlile in its top six, and the Penguins have allowed 65 goals in 18 games, so the lanes Celebrini shoots from should stay open.

🎯 Cutter Gauthier OVER 3.5 Shots On Goal (-160) 1u - Troy Terry's expected season debut comes on the second power-play unit, so Anaheim's first unit stays intact around Gauthier, Leo Carlsson, Mikael Granlund, Beckett Sennecke and Jackson LaCombe, and Gauthier keeps his even-strength spot with Granlund and Sennecke. - All six home games in his last 15 cleared 3.5 (7 on Oct. 7, 4 on Oct. 16, 4 on Oct. 27, 10 on Oct. 29, 5 on Nov. 1 and 6 on Nov. 8), and he has 63 shots in that span with a median of 4. - Nashville played in Los Angeles on Tuesday night, so the Predators are on the second half of a back-to-back, and with last change at Honda Center, Joel Quenneville can keep Gauthier's line away from Nashville's top pair.

🎯 Blazers +1.5 (-110) 1u - Portland handled this same Oklahoma City group by 20 points on Tuesday, 123-103 in this building, and the rematch comes less than 24 hours later with no time for the Thunder to reset. - Season margins favor the home side too, +7.0 points per game for Portland across 10 games against +5.5 for Oklahoma City across 11, so the better team by differential is the one getting points at home. - Tuesday was not a one-off: Oklahoma City's only other road losses came by 24 at Dallas and 21 at Houston, and with Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace all out, this rotation has not kept road games close.

🎯 Mississippi Valley State Team Total OVER 55.5 (-110) 1u - With both teams around 70 to 71 adjusted possessions per 40 minutes, 55.5 asks MVSU for about 0.79 points per trip, and a projection around 56 lands on it. MVSU got about 0.83 per trip at Oklahoma and 0.96 at Washington. - Oregon's first two opponents averaged 18.5 trips to the line, and MVSU cashed 31 of 39 there in its first two games, a scoring floor that does not need jump shots to fall. - Oregon has spread minutes across at least 12 players in two games and still allowed 69 and 71 at home to Big Sky offenses, so the second half of a runaway puts Duck reserves against MVSU's starters.