Pinned Tweet
How to Find the Best Picks Every Day Throughout the Entire Season
I believe NBA player props are one of the best betting categories for data analysis because they offer a huge amount of data to study and evaluate.
On a typical NBA day with five games, there can be 100+ players and 500+ player props available. Imagine going through all those options, selecting the five best picks, and tracking them throughout an entire season. That's the kind of challenge bettors face.
The problem is that sportsbooks track betting results and may identify bettors who consistently find good player props. Within a relatively short period, sometimes around seven weeks, these bettors may have their maximum stake limited on player props. To work around this, some bettors try to spread smaller bets across multiple sportsbooks and keep looking for value over the long term.
How I Identify Good Picks
Let's take a player who averages three three-point attempts per game and makes one of them. If he goes five games without making a three-pointer, that means he has missed 15 attempts. Now, the question is whether he will miss his next three attempts as well, reaching 18 consecutive misses, or get back on track.
This is one starting point for analysis: examining the player's shooting data and whether the available odds offer good value. Of course, a cold streak alone doesn't guarantee that a player is more or less likely to make his next shot. The key is to look at the bigger picture and evaluate the numbers.
There are several other factors that can make a pick worth considering:
1. The odds
2. Injury reports and changes in role
3. Matchup Data
4. Psychological and personal circumstances
5. Player Statistics and Team Schedule & Workload
These are just a few examples. By combining multiple factors โ statistical data, matchup history, injury reports, odds, and relevant situational information โ the goal is to identify and classify the strongest picks available each day.
The idea isn't to rely on a single stat or storyline. It's to evaluate the full picture and find picks where the available odds may offer genuine value.
The Long-Term Perspective
Losing one month and winning another is part of the variance that comes with sports betting. What matters is evaluating the overall results at the end of the season, including whether the returns justify the time, effort, and money invested.
This requires serious financial discipline, emotional control, research, time, and hard work. There is no perfect bettor, and I believe most bettors experience losses at some point.
If you'd like to follow my performance throughout an entire NBA season, check out my profile. I'll do my best to share my results transparently and let the numbers speak for themselves.
18+. Gambling involves risk. Only bet what you can afford to lose.
๐ค Made with AI
528
๐ FREE PICK OF THE WEEK
๐ Obi Toppin โ OVER 11.5 Points @ -114
๐ IND vs WAS ยท Wed, Nov 11 ยท 7:10 PM ET
Every pick graded in public. Full slate ~4h before tip-off โ link in bio.
1
113
๐ RESULTS โ Tuesday, November 10
โ
4 won ยท โ 4 lost
๐ -0.42u on the day (1u per pick)
๐ Season: 87-64 ยท 57.6% ยท +9.21u ยท avg odds -117
Tomorrow's picks โ link in bio.
#NBA #PlayerProps #NBAStats
1
30
๐ RESULTS โ Tuesday, November 10
โ
4 won ยท โ 4 lost
๐ -0.42u on the day (1u per pick)
๐ Season: 87-64 ยท 57.6% ยท +9.21u ยท avg odds -117
Tomorrow's picks โ link in bio.
#NBA #PlayerProps #NBAStats
42
๐ RESULTS โ Monday, November 9
โ
9 won ยท โ 4 lost
๐ +3.92u on the day (1u per pick)
๐ Season: 83-60 ยท 58.0% ยท +9.63u ยท avg odds -117
Tomorrow's picks โ link in bio.
#NBA #PlayerProps #NBAStats
45
1/8 of the NBA season is in. ๐
130 graded picks. 74-56. 56.9% win rate. +5.71u.
Avg odds -118, break-even 54.1%. We're above it.
Every pick is public: wins AND losses. No deleted tweets, no hiding bad nights.
Full track record ๐ nbaplayerprops.ai/results
๐ค Made with AI
1
1
80
๐ RESULTS โ Sunday, November 8
โ
3 won ยท โ 2 lost
๐ +0.61u on the day (1u per pick)
๐ Season: 74-56 ยท 56.9% ยท +5.71u ยท avg odds -118
Tomorrow's picks โ link in bio.
#NBA #PlayerProps #NBAStats
37
๐ RESULTS โ Saturday, November 7
โ
5 won ยท โ 4 lost
๐ +0.52u on the day (1u per pick)
๐ Season: 71-54 ยท 56.8% ยท +5.10u ยท avg odds -118
Tomorrow's picks โ link in bio.
#NBA #PlayerProps #NBAStats
42
๐ RESULTS โ Friday, November 6
โ
5 won ยท โ 4 lost
๐ +0.05u on the day (1u per pick)
๐ Season: 66-50 ยท 56.9% ยท +4.58u ยท avg odds -118
Tomorrow's picks โ link in bio.
#NBA #PlayerProps #NBAStats
45
๐ด NO PICKS TODAY โ Thu, Nov 5
Our model flagged 3 props on tonight's slate (ORL @ PHX, MIA @ GSW). None passed our simulation filter.
No edge, no play. Back tomorrow. ๐
๐ Season: 61-46 ยท 57.0% ยท +4.52u
#NBA #PlayerProps #NBAStats
1
1
181
๐ RESULTS โ Wednesday, November 4
โ
9 won ยท โ 4 lost
๐ +3.55u on the day (1u per pick)
๐ Free pick: Joel Embiid OVER 0.5 3PM โ โ LOST
๐ Free pick: Kevin Huerter OVER 2.5 REB โ โ LOST
๐ Season: 61-46 ยท 57.0% ยท +4.52u ยท avg odds -119
Tomorrow's picks โ link in bio.
83
๐ FREE PICK OF THE WEEK
๐ Kevin Huerter โ OVER 2.5 Rebounds @ -130
๐ DET vs PHI ยท Wed, Nov 4 ยท 7:00 PM ET
Every pick graded in public. Full slate ~4h before tip-off โ link in bio.
68
๐ FREE PICK OF THE WEEK
๐ Stephon Castle โ OVER 16.5 Points @ -103
๐ SAS vs DAL ยท Wed, Nov 4 ยท 9:30 PM ET
๐ฉน Jayden Quaintance (Out), Tobias Harris (Out) โ supports the OVER
Every pick graded in public. Full slate ~4h before tip-off โ link in bio.
164
๐ FREE PICK OF THE WEEK
๐ Joel Embiid โ OVER 0.5 3-Pointers @ -233
๐ DET vs PHI ยท Wed, Nov 4 ยท 7:00 PM ET
๐ฉน Dominick Barlow (Out), Ariel Hukporti (Out) โ supports the OVER
Every pick graded in public. Full slate ~4h before tip-off โ link in bio.
#NBA #PlayerProps #NBAStats
168
๐ FREE PICK OF THE WEEK
๐ Amen Thompson โ OVER 6.5 Rebounds @ -106
๐ HOU vs MIN ยท Wed, Nov 4 ยท 8:30 PM ET
Every pick graded in public. Full slate ~4h before tip-off โ link in bio.
136
๐ FREE PICK OF THE WEEK
๐ Kel'el Ware โ UNDER 7.5 Rebounds @ -122
๐ BOS vs MIL ยท Wed, Nov 4 ยท 7:40 PM ET
๐ฉน Kam Jones (Questionable) โ risk for the UNDER
Every pick graded in public. Full slate ~4h before tip-off โ link in bio.
#NBA #PlayerProps #NBAStats
145
๐ RESULTS โ Monday, November 2
โ
5 won ยท โ 3 lost
๐ +1.20u on the day (1u per pick)
๐ Season: 52-42 ยท 55.3% ยท +0.98u ยท avg odds -117
Tomorrow's picks โ link in bio.
#NBA #PlayerProps #NBAStats
46
๐ RESULTS โ Sunday, November 1
โ
1 won ยท โ 1 lost
๐ -0.38u on the day (1u per pick)
๐ Season: 47-39 ยท 54.7% ยท -0.22u ยท avg odds -117
Tomorrow's picks โ link in bio.
#NBA #PlayerProps #NBAStats
58
๐ RESULTS โ Saturday, October 31
โ
3 won ยท โ 7 lost
๐ -4.68u on the day (1u per pick)
๐ Season: 46-38 ยท 54.8% ยท +0.16u ยท avg odds -117
Tomorrow's picks โ link in bio.
#NBA #PlayerProps #NBAStats
51
๐ RESULTS โ Friday, October 30
โ
1 won ยท โ 6 lost
๐ -5.36u on the day (1u per pick)
๐ Season: 43-31 ยท 58.1% ยท +4.84u ยท avg odds -117
Tomorrow's picks โ link in bio.
#NBA #PlayerProps #NBAStats
77




















