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I’m excited to announce that I’m joining Reciprocal as an investor! (@recvcx)
This is certainly an interesting spot to enter crypto venture. For the second time in its relatively brief history, DeFi is at an inflection point. While I have some ideas, I’m not entirely sure what it will look like next.
What I do know is that each cycle, infrastructure improves, crypto protocols get better, and conviction hardens. We’ve had more products go mainstream in the last couple years than ever before. That is what matters.
I’m excited to take on the mission of finding, investing, and supporting the next era of great crypto companies with an incredibly talented team. Onwards!
why are you, a man, so concerned with another man's sex life? touch grass guys...
NYT says Jensen Huang had a relationship Nvidia's vice president of health care. nytimes.com/2026/11/11/techn…
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Question for CT: What has Warren indicated that is so bad for crypto?
Is crypto better or worse without Trump family crime, Binance market manipulation, and prediction markets clearly misleading the market about whether or not they are gambling companies?
Furthermore, she doesn't control the SEC or the CFTC. Democrats have even gone so far as to discuss reintroducing CLARITY, far more than we ever imagined we'd get from them.
The truth is, Trump and republicans have overpromised and wildly undelivered on crypto. Obviously a Gensler-era crackdown would be terrible, but crypto has far more support from institutions with much more lobbying power.
IMO tokens have never been more investable.
We've derisked quite a bit. After derisking higher we kept re-adding. That has completely stopped.
This isn't purely an alpha based call. I don't have a good read on the market, we're up a lot into year end and want to crystallize gains, and I'm worried about what's coming.
Short term, crypto may be uninvestable. Democrats are probably going Gensler 2.0. There are plenty of nasty outcomes:
- DATs made illegal and forced to unwind
-Warren Banking Oversight
- Protocols pushing memecoins getting prosecuted
- Privacy tokens treated as hostile
Mid to long term, this is obviously a net good for Bitcoin. Democrats will likely accelerate spending and fiat debasement, and the industry may come out better once it gets "cleaned up."
Expect a tremendous amount of volatility. It will present incredible buying opportunities.
Note: The democrats cannot replace the CFTC chair who has been ruling favorably for stock perps and DeFi generally, so some assets may not be totally evisercated.
tbh this outlook is the entire issue with zcash and why everyone got caught lacking, expectations zec is a guranteed 20x. that's absurd.
there is no such thing as a SoV outside btc. every next SoV diminishes the label. it's just a memecoin. if you're truly interested in privacy there are far more convenient ways to move money privately without denominating your entire portfolio in zec.
and here you have 20 KOLs putting out baseless price targets, telling you to HODL (sounds familiar?) and that traders will be poor forever. give me a break 😭
i like zcash. i think token could do well as btc goes through an identity crisis wrt quantum + privacy. but this sort of condescending attitude is insulting to anyone who's been through a few cycles.
just to add insult to injury, qw (who i rlly do respect but im not eating shit on a profitable thesis that was fully correct) loves charlie munger and has on multiple occasions framed his style of investing as value-based similar to charlie.
explain to me how zec fits in munger's framework of investing.
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Happy with how this is playing out.
ZEC short was pretty obvious imo, very crowded. HYPE was a bit late, should've been taken at the Elon tweet, but the move happened quick and I missed it. HYPE still underperformed so i'll book the W.
More interested in finding good tokens to buy at healthy levels.
HYPE and ZEC are probably cooked through the EOY.
TLDR: all catalysts exhausted + both tokens are up 4x from the yearly lows. Funds will want to crystallize their profits, some might even target lazy holders who got to comfy and let their guard down.
HYPE case is more clear but very hard to time:
> HYPE has exhausted all near-term catalysts
> $100 ceiling (equivalent FDV to robinhoods mcap) seems to be the rough cap on near-term growth
> Hyperliquid benefited from some linkage to being US regulated at some pt, therefore prone to being challenged on this and a dem repeal of any of these tailwinds (although i don't think it matters long-term it could short-term)
> Dems expressed they want to shift supervisory power of crypto to the SEC and limit the role of the CFTC which has been contributing all the existing frameworks for exchange access and perp mechanics. Unclear if that's actually a negative, but change is change nonetheless.
ZEC case looks a bit more like SOLUNAVAX in 2021. It was:
> Its one of >10 tokens ppl think they can hold on a 3-5yr time horizon, so holders got very comfy (too comfy) and have let their guard down
> But its a memecoin. There is no such thing as a "Store of Value" other than maybe BTC. It doesn't benefit from the debasement trade other than being pure beta, and we just saw how the beta trade went on AI.
> Apart from HYPE, ZEC is likely the biggest driver of uPNL in 2026. Both tokens are up ~4x from the lows.
> Tons of uncertainty heading into EOY wrt AI trade, Trump unleashed
0xTraderSam <> Arthur Hayes confluence 🤝
Spent my whole Saturday on excel. My model determined the intrinsic value of $ZEC is actually $50.
That’s a 96% drawdown from today’s price.
Sharing my model below 👇
HYPE and ZEC are probably cooked through the EOY.
TLDR: all catalysts exhausted + both tokens are up 4x from the yearly lows. Funds will want to crystallize their profits, some might even target lazy holders who got to comfy and let their guard down.
HYPE case is more clear but very hard to time:
> HYPE has exhausted all near-term catalysts
> $100 ceiling (equivalent FDV to robinhoods mcap) seems to be the rough cap on near-term growth
> Hyperliquid benefited from some linkage to being US regulated at some pt, therefore prone to being challenged on this and a dem repeal of any of these tailwinds (although i don't think it matters long-term it could short-term)
> Dems expressed they want to shift supervisory power of crypto to the SEC and limit the role of the CFTC which has been contributing all the existing frameworks for exchange access and perp mechanics. Unclear if that's actually a negative, but change is change nonetheless.
ZEC case looks a bit more like SOLUNAVAX in 2021. It was:
> Its one of >10 tokens ppl think they can hold on a 3-5yr time horizon, so holders got very comfy (too comfy) and have let their guard down
> But its a memecoin. There is no such thing as a "Store of Value" other than maybe BTC. It doesn't benefit from the debasement trade other than being pure beta, and we just saw how the beta trade went on AI.
> Apart from HYPE, ZEC is likely the biggest driver of uPNL in 2026. Both tokens are up ~4x from the lows.
> Tons of uncertainty heading into EOY wrt AI trade, Trump unleashed
0xTraderSam <> Arthur Hayes confluence 🤝
Story time:
I met @Evanrrama and @parampatel at the Monad Accelerator. I immediately resonated with their vision of bringing prediction markets to livestreams - it felt like one of those stupidly obvious products that was incredibly memetic with major virality potential (more on this soon). I tailed them out the room and @recvcx cut them a check soon after.
But as I got to know Evan and Param, it became clear to me these guys not only had the operating experience required to build the product and a pipeline of streamers, they had the taste and ambition to capture attention as well.
Evan spent 90 straight days wearing a Halloween costume every day with a QR code on my back to promote our events. He subsequently sold out 8 dating shows and generated 15M views and 700K shares.
On the other hand, Param built physical slot machines with his parents before building digital games for online casinos like Stake and Shuffle. He distributed 100+ titles across licensed regulatory markets.
Will post a longer thesis on why I'm so bullish CRSH soon, but thought I'd take this time to highlight why we chose to back Evan and Param.
CRSHMARKET has raised a $3.5M Seed round to build the first livestream prediction market.
This round was led by @6thManVentures , with participation from @recvcx, @lattice_fund, and @startinglinevc.
We’re building a new way to interact with live content, where anyone can predict what happens next with 60 second settlements.
Long HYPE/Short CME
Druck mode.
trade[XYZ] and ICE, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, are joining forces to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States.
In just over a year, our markets on Hyperliquid have surpassed $650 billion in volume. They provide continuous price discovery for stocks, indices, and commodities, and have become trusted reference points for retail and institutions alike when traditional markets are closed. Much of the world trades them. Until now, Americans could only watch.
We intend to change that. Subject to CFTC approval, trade[XYZ] and ICE plan to establish a new, dedicated U.S. market, with novel exchange and clearing infrastructure built on Hyperliquid. Planned contracts span equities, indices, commodities, FX, and crypto, with access through participating brokers and platforms. We’ll share more on products, eligibility, and timing as approvals progress.
ICE brings more than 25 years of experience operating regulated markets, clearing, and managing risk. trade[XYZ] brings the product development, market design, and technology behind the most liquid and robust markets on Hyperliquid.
Innovation and the protections of U.S. regulation shouldn’t be a trade-off. Together, we plan to prove it.
ICE is making a strategic investment in trade[XYZ] and joins us in building towards the future of Hyperliquid. A small group of market luminaries is joining as well, beginning with Stan Druckenmiller. For more than four decades, few investors have anticipated the great turns in markets as often as Stan. We’re proud to have him with us for the next one.
We’re building the U.S. market in parallel with our existing HIP-3 markets, which we’ll continue to expand and innovate on. We expect both to flourish. They each have a long road map ahead, from new asset classes to new ways to trade them.
To the Hyperliquid community, whether you were here before us or came because of us, thank you. You took a chance on new markets and you made them matter. You’ll forever be a part of this story.
Anything. Anytime. On ICE[XYZ].
A study from March (arXiv:2603.01919) that tested 17 "shadow APIs" from model aggregators against their official counterparts revealed:
> performance divergence reaching up to 47.21%
> identity verification failures in 45.83% of fingerprint tests
> significant unpredictability in safety behaviors
Centralized APIs ask users to trust brand, contracts, or customer support, then proceed to rug you half the time.
AntSeed will rely on a public fingerprint swarm to verify you were served the model you paid for.
antseed.com/blog/model-verif…
Nearly half of API resellers serve a completely different model than the one you paid for.
G̶P̶T̶-̶5̶ → GLM-4
G̶P̶T̶-̶4̶o̶-̶m̶i̶n̶i̶ → Qwen2.5-7B
Ants don’t do shady.
Dropping something soon.
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This is seriously pathetic. Hyperliquid is facilitating price discovery on Brazilian elections and trillion-dollar pre-IPOs stocks
and Base is keeping the trenches alive...
"we can't organically build culture ourselves but we'll pay you to let us borrow yours!"
Truly think this might be a new low for Base. No situational awarenesss here, seeing as PumpSwap is at annual lows, RH chain was eviscerated, and Arc was a 48-hr crimefest. But I'm sure it'll be different this time!
TLDR: Pumpfun needs Collector Crypt more than Collector Crypt needs Pumpfun.
The difference in quality between Collector Crypt and all other onchain TCG gacha/marketplaces should not go unnoticed.
Here’s what stood out from @Collector_Crypt's record week for pack opening volume.
Pumpfun contributed $15.1M. Strip that out and volume still reached $64.6M, which would have been its second biggest week ever.
With or without Pump, we go higher.
Over the next few months as @Collector_Crypt goes mainstream via partners and RipMart and $CARDS enters price discovery, you’re going to see many pumpfun bulls come out and tell you gacha is bad for the world and it’s not durable.
You should immediately disregard those takes. Just a double standard.
Much love to TG he’s a beast but I’ve seen this take a few times and it’s nonsensical. Gacha is far better odds than memecoins, this is fact.
Speaking objectively, I anticipate if Gen Alpha gets airdropped thousands of dollars in stocks while Gen Z gets nothing, there will be intergenerational backlash that lasts for at least a decade.
Gen Z suffered through COVID, pays for boomers’ social security, their entry-level jobs will be displaced by AI, and equities and home prices are too expensive.
Could be the straw that breaks the camels back.
notice the ai chad (wang): wavy volume hairmaxx, softer jaw and boyish features, glasses + mullet combo for a chaotic frame. he feels the instinctive need to both framemog and jestermax via his boisterous tee.
the ai beta (wu): high zygos under the big laugh, compact face with good width-to-height ratio, positive energy maxxing the soft tissue. he submits; he knows he can't win a frame mog nor jestermax competition, so he strategically hides himself but logo shills at the center of the frame. very clever wu, very slytherin.
and then there's jeff: clean short hair, strong smile revealing solid teeth and midface projection, glasses slightly soft the hunter-eye potential. absolute chad. you can tell hes been mewing. the plush purr to disarm and dismantle the ai chads. he's a man of the people.
wang thought he'd have the last laugh with his boisterous graphic tee. wu thought he could outsmart his competitors from the shadows. jeff needs neither jester nor shadows: he is him.
hyperliquid.
