$SPY
Coming back to my original fractal that allowed me to catch this move down…
Given it worked so well, let’s have a look at what it says comes next…
This would imply round of Black Monday chants into a last gasp TACO
Obviously not my base case, but you gotta respect it
All patterns eventually end, tbd if it’s this week
But for now, 3/3 past Wednesdays have marked intraweek high
TBD on 4/4
It’s a worthy bet because it’s still clearly a downtrend. Lower highs and lower lows. About 1.3% from a higher high at this point
And tbh if this was a swing low we will eventually find a higher low
3
23
1,426
$HYPE
Last chance in my view
Air gap below $70 and Kuma will get to close his shorts at $55
But for now it’s a What If spot
I know there is a fairly strong opinion out there that these Liq Map estimates are garbage.
Can someone share their best estimate of what is going on with all this OI?
Kinda funny ever since the cryptography story dropped crypto has been down only
Many dunked on meta for selling the dip, but in reflection that was the best price you got
Panic first?
Honestly, I sold most of my spot crypto and offboarded today. It's just not worth the headache.
I don't want to check every single headline about AI math and cryptography research wondering if I'm about to get rugged. I don't want to wonder if every ancient BTC address making a transfer is ECDSA being cracked.
I had already refocused most of my time and energy on equities at this point, and Justin Drake's post just killed the rest of my desire to hold crypto. This isn't impulsive, I read hours of counterarguments.
1. People say this is incredibly unlikely. I just don't trust any human to predict the capability ceiling of superhuman mathematical AI. Have seen people be wrong about AI capability ceiling over and over.
2. What if I miss the next great bull cycle? Honestly, that's fine, there's plenty of other assets to trade with less stress of existential left tail risk.
3. People say that we would have bigger problems. Yes, I know that banks etc would also be at risk and society would be a clusterfuck, but the government should step in to save my money (and society) at that point. I don't know that they will for crypto. Plus, why would a malicious practitioner rather burn the whole world down over just stealing infinite crypto?
4. People say this is just like Quantum FUD. Nah, this is much more concrete and near term. This doesn't require a new scientific breakthrough, only the continued march of AI progress that we've been scaling on for years.
I got into crypto as a techno optimist but there's other investment expressions of that now. The development of AI (and recently the intersection of bio x AI) is more intellectually interesting to me. Being in crypto feels like being short AI progress, and I do not want to be short AI progress.
This is not investment advice, everyone should decide for themselves how they feel about the topic. I am just one random human being on the internet, expressing my thoughts.
I must acknowledge we have come a long way in a short period of time
We hit my target in a little over two weeks time since I issued the warning
I’m flat on equities shorts (just a small Tesla short remains cause I don’t see why this should be trading at $300 in Q1)
Current bias is to short the next leg up if they provide
$QQQ
Continues to progress in accordance to the previous set ups…
Maybe a little trickier from here— Fall 2025 was littered with Friday->Monday bullish reversals, keeping that in the back of my mind.
If we do decisively lose weekly trend, know that history shows the next 5 weeks are not pretty.
Big week incoming…
1
22
3,188
All the talk right now:
Big 1-month OI build
Price grinding down during this period
Funding above baseline during this period
However, 1-month liq map showing most of this is shorts (?)
Objectively, to me this OI is shorts (despite funding)… so do they know something?
Interesting
While there is a lot of complaining today, I don’t think there is much of a coincidence here
In any other scenario with QQQ up 3.5% you’d expect to see BTC above 76.5k and the TL screaming deviation / complex pullback complete
Instead, the pullback remains complex
