Mandelbrot retweeted
The Bessent Bond Volatility Playbook
1. Trump does something stupid— volatility marks a swing high
2. Trump continues doing stupid things— pressure builds with successive higher lows
3. Trump ratchets up the stupidity— SFP the swing high
4. Taco— One Year Prosperity Channel
Mandelbrot retweeted
Pls Buy
I will leave it to Gavin Baker to stroke himself off about each incremental 5B of ARR
80-100B is no joke, but I think it’s a sweet spot
My paranoia is telling me ANT is doing everything they can to fire on all cylinders into IPO and as more shares unlock it’s going to be coincidentally harder to get that incremental 5B as these numbers get larger and larger
Mandelbrot retweeted
Solely observing the chart… NQ looks polar opposite to Sept FOMC set-up to me
Yeah positioning of smart people (HFs) is giga low, but maybe they’re just… smart?
tbd
$SPY
Like I’ve been saying, feels like a different set-up into a rather sanguine FOMC.
We had a lot of fear and strong selling during the previous two events that precipitated massive swing longs (see quote); today somewhat of a complacent grind up.
My base case is we just have more chop and premium burn in store, but to me, if you’re a degenerate gambler, the tail scenario is we see similar action to the week leading up to the 2022 mid-terms (pictured) given how we’ve traded opposite to prior lead-ups into Warsh.
Don’t think you need to commit a ton of premium to the idea, these types of trades will usually miss, but the payoffs can be huge when they do hit, so I don’t mind playing for some asymmetry.
My gamble:
“This is what I’m currently watching for. We had a -5% 3-day drawdown right before the last mid terms (2022). Will be trying Monday OTM puts on any spike up into and through FOMC. Just in case we are getting the exact opposite PA from the prior two FOMCs (swing low as opposed to swing high)”
Mandelbrot retweeted
We did hit that low overnight, doesn’t show on cash session, so still tracking very well
Now let’s get a clearing event pop shall we?
Mandelbrot retweeted
$BTC
Out at 60.8 as per the quoted tweet.
Bitfinex twap beginning to slow down?
Hmmm
Mandelbrot retweeted
Alright filled on what I wanted
Prob goes higher today as he sounds pretty dovish imo, but like most fomc’s, real move will appear tomorrow
Could be continuation ofc
Mandelbrot retweeted
After staying in the private markets until their Series W, they are finally rushing to Democratize Finance and ensure everyone gets a slice
Mandelbrot retweeted
$QQQ
Not like I’m anywhere near max long but the more whining about how every single scenario tomorrow financial assets die, the more some semblance of this is a real possibility…
During the prior two HTF “rollovers” anyone who was paying attention knew the end was near, and yet both instances the Qs went on to test ATHs (+5% in a very short period).
Just something to keep in mind, nothing is outside of the realm of possibilities, and it’s times like these when the outcome seems preordained you should be considering the exact opposite scenario playing out.
Not here to tell you why or how, just talking price action. Topping is a process (if that’s what we’re in fact doing).
I’d just say if we trade down tomorrow into the guaranteed rate hike and we knee-jerk down, pay special attention for any strength from there— it may be our best long opportunity since…. the last FOMC…
Mandelbrot retweeted
Is it too much to ask for HYPE to increase from 0.9% of TOTAL crypto market to 1.3%?
Mandelbrot retweeted
$SPY
Like I’ve been saying, feels like a different set-up into a rather sanguine FOMC.
We had a lot of fear and strong selling during the previous two events that precipitated massive swing longs (see quote); today somewhat of a complacent grind up.
My base case is we just have more chop and premium burn in store, but to me, if you’re a degenerate gambler, the tail scenario is we see similar action to the week leading up to the 2022 mid-terms (pictured) given how we’ve traded opposite to prior lead-ups into Warsh.
Don’t think you need to commit a ton of premium to the idea, these types of trades will usually miss, but the payoffs can be huge when they do hit, so I don’t mind playing for some asymmetry.
My gamble:
“This is what I’m currently watching for. We had a -5% 3-day drawdown right before the last mid terms (2022). Will be trying Monday OTM puts on any spike up into and through FOMC. Just in case we are getting the exact opposite PA from the prior two FOMCs (swing low as opposed to swing high)”
$QQQ
Not like I’m anywhere near max long but the more whining about how every single scenario tomorrow financial assets die, the more some semblance of this is a real possibility…
During the prior two HTF “rollovers” anyone who was paying attention knew the end was near, and yet both instances the Qs went on to test ATHs (+5% in a very short period).
Just something to keep in mind, nothing is outside of the realm of possibilities, and it’s times like these when the outcome seems preordained you should be considering the exact opposite scenario playing out.
Not here to tell you why or how, just talking price action. Topping is a process (if that’s what we’re in fact doing).
I’d just say if we trade down tomorrow into the guaranteed rate hike and we knee-jerk down, pay special attention for any strength from there— it may be our best long opportunity since…. the last FOMC…
Mandelbrot retweeted
$XLU
Dec 2027 calls
Nibble on red days into the 200 week
Nervous about it below box / 200w
Mandelbrot retweeted
Crazy that we are now at a point that we are depending on *Amazon* to save the AI trade
Mandelbrot retweeted
$HYPE
Didn’t get the swipe yet, but the timing is here
Re-bought some with room to add into 74
Green close and that’ll lock in a daily bull div
Arthur (and Flowhorse) says Hype is destined to underperform from here, but I’m not willing to join that bet here at weekly trend.
$HYPE
Yeah yeah downside outperformance doesn’t pay the bills (unless you’re running the pair trade ofc)
When do we make money on the long side?
Current fractal I’m watching…
Mandelbrot retweeted
I know fintwit idolizes him, but I’m starting to think dude is a little too full of himself
“I am the house” … *10yr blows up 70 bps over the next month*
Now these comments… ego issues to work through? Fine if he could back it up
Textbook halo effect from working with Druck
FT: Treasury secretary Scott Bessent told investors in a private meeting that he did not see a “systemic problem” with the AI boom, downplaying concerns that the industry is in a bubble like the one that preceded the dotcom bust.
“I’m good at figuring out when there are problems in systems,” Bessent, said when asked about AI in an interview with Bridgewater chief executive Nir Bar Dea, according to three people who were present at the event. “I don’t see a systemic problem.”