Writing for @TheEconomist | More at https://xitter.twitterapi.xyz/t.co/qPYdNie0jd
London, DC and sometimes NY
Joined February 2011
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Archie Hall retweeted
My contribution to the interminable progressives-vs-moderates electability debate. Modeled expected vote shares for every race. tl;dr I had weak priors but landed on team mods. economist.com/graphic-detail… cc @mattyglesias @MattBruenig @gelliottmorris @JakeMGrumbach @neeratanden
Archie Hall retweeted
I do hope there's real accountability for failing to hit the target.
At the moment, there seems to be an effort to reframe it as a 'stretch goal'.
The reality is there are multiple policies that could unlock housing that the Government aren't trying.
From reducing mandatory affordable requirements (viability is blocking development), reforming the BSR (e.g. returning functions to local authorities), raising the second staircase minimum from 18m to 30-50m, and delivering quick-wins like Street Votes (still not put into practice despite primary sorted).
Archie Hall retweeted
New trade data out this morning. Trade balance for the year as a whole similar to previous years but under the surface massive movements--a huge reduction in trade deficit ex data center stuff & increase in deficit in data center stuff.
Archie Hall retweeted
Charts and map about the Democrats' extraordinary triumph in the midterms w/@OwenWntr - @TheEconomist economist.com/interactive/gr…
Archie Hall retweeted
I had missed this from the excellent @ArchieHall, back in March. Well worth a read. notes.archie-hall.com/p/brit…
Archie Hall retweeted
EU RESET LATEST
— Agreement still not reached on youth mobility scheme ahead of 20 Nov summit. UK has now offered a higher cap of 75,000 to 80,000 BUT EU continues to push for 100,000
— Youth mobility scheme also complicated by work visas. UK still waiting for individual EU member states to confirm their offers
— UK to agree to significantly lower tuition fees for EU students. But govt only expecting summit to include language committing to further negotiations
— Current UK govt modelling expects the reset package to boost GDP by between 0.4 and 0.5 per cent
Archie Hall retweeted
Danger! Low voltage
For @TheEconomist this week I've written about John Healey's promise of an overhaul of energy markets to prioritise cheaper power
The reasoning is sound (see graph!!) but it's not clear govt has adequate plans to bring down costs
Archie Hall retweeted
Quick thread on the absolutely massive rise in AI-related investment in GDP data released this morning
Spending on data centers & computers is now America's single largest investment by far: 50% larger than single-family home construction, 3x factories, or 6x apartments🧵
Archie Hall retweeted
When preparing for a podcast this week on effective altruism and business, I wondered who might make a good guest.
Then the obvious answer came to mind: the most famous EA of all time, Sam Bankman-Fried. Notes from our conversation for @TheEconomist. (The full interview is on "Money Talks", out yesterday.)
economist.com/finance-and-ec…
Archie Hall retweeted
Quite a way to make a splash in a new job: The Economist's (relatively) newly appointed US business correspondent @saviyonah interviewed Sam Bankman Fried for an episode about effective altruism, down the phone from federal prison.
economist.com/podcasts/2026/…
Archie Hall retweeted
On our “Checks and Balance” podcast, @ArchieHall travels to Ohio to hear voters’ concerns about data centres economist.com/podcasts/2026/…
Archie Hall retweeted
Throwing a Works in Progress launch party that coincided with an air show over San Francisco Bay was really fun!
There is basically no hedonic adjustment to fighter jets soaring past your window.
Huge turnout for the @WorksInProgMag Issue 26 Launch Party last Sunday in San Francisco.
Thank you @cosmos_raj for the photos!
Archie Hall retweeted
New essay: To keep human judgment, we need AI courts.
AI-generated filings are starting to overwhelm courts around the world.
The most popular response I’ve heard is to fight AI with AI: If we can just give judges the right tools and training, AI will help them keep pace.
But this strikes me as the worst of both worlds.
Because we want human judges in the loop, we don’t get the speed and scale benefits of AI. Yet because we expect them to resolve a massive number of cases quickly, judges (or their clerks) may end up leaning on AI more than they mean to or should.
This essay offers another way: a parallel AI adjudication track.
An AI track — inspired by AI use in private arbitration but formally part of the court system like magistrate judges — would let courts be explicit about how human judgment is allocated.
Done right, this would allow courts to process large volumes of cases while ensuring human judges devote their full attention to the cases where their judgment is needed most.
Read more in @PaxMachinaMag: paxmachina.ai/to-keep-human-…
Archie Hall retweeted
on the latest podcast episode, Archie Hall, acting Economics editor, discussed how the magazine is approaching the rise of democratic socialism.
Archie Hall retweeted
**NEWS**
I have started a substack, as a vehicle to tell you about my new FT columns and podcasts, as well as the odd song.
You can sign up here: soumayakeynes.substack.com/p…
Archie Hall retweeted
New research: we hired 12 CPAs to complete four realistic accounting tasks, then had AI models from the past few years complete the same work.
As of May 2025, accountants outperformed AI. Now they lose out to today's frontier models, which are near perfect on these tasks. 🧵
Archie Hall retweeted
'Gingerbread men with chocolate trousers incur value-added tax (VAT) worth 20%, but no tax is charged on those with chocolate only for their eyes.'
Britain's taxes aren't unusually high - but they are freakishly complex, @TheEconomist says: economist.com/britain/2026/1…
Archie Hall retweeted
The Economist editor @ArchieHall says Britain may have built itself into one of AI’s easiest economic targets by relying on service exports while lagging at adopting technology:
"I'm pretty concerned about where Britain could end up, and I think that's evocative of where a lot of non-US rich world economies could end up in a world where AI is more economically disruptive."
"You have an economy that's very, very services exports dependent. Law, finance, insurance. And it's not a vastly dynamic economy. It's not been incredibly successful adopting technology over the past couple decades."
"More nimble AI-enabled competitors could very, very easily eat away at the export base of a lot of those services companies that really power the British economy."
"Britain does have a pretty strong AI sector, but it's not huge, and most of the British economy is things that are not AI and things that are pretty bad at adopting tech."
@TheEconomist
I am increasingly frustrated about the state of conversation about AI in the UK. It feels like we are in never ending cycles of deluded thinking. Under current trends, Britain will be defenceless against the transformative effects of AI and have no leverage over development at the frontier.
We are the most exposed economy to AI in the world. We have very little data centre capacity and few credible plans to expand – and our high energy costs mean we would struggle to even if we tried.
I am publishing a paper today on what the UK should do to build that leverage, let the economy capture value from AI and prepare the state to adapt, however AI develops.
The three strategies are as follows:
1. Build the infrastructure that gives us leverage. Fix the grid, fix planning, make Britain a place frontier AI can run.
2. Let the economy capture the value of AI. Reform the regulatory, labour and talent barriers that stop British firms adopting AI.
3. Build a state that can adapt to a changing world. Build a tax base that survives the labour market changing, public services that use AI to deliver better, and capacity to weather the upcoming geopolitical storms.
Two years ago, we published a similar report on AI - many recommendations of which ended up in the action plan. I remember feeling hopeful, but sadly the fundamental problems facing the country on AI have not shifted. I truly hope that this week of momentum culminates in action. There’s still a narrow path for the UK, but everyday that path is narrowing.
