From Myrtle Beach to Wrigley Field
Wrigley Field
Joined May 2023
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Pete Crow-Armstrong cut his Swing rate by 9.7% this season, and saw his wRC+ climb from 109 to 157.
That’s the largest year-to-year Swing% drop among all hitters (Min. 400 PAs each season) of the last 10 years!
Remarkable profile change in such a short time.
And suddenly Adrian Morejon wanting to remain a reliever makes more sense to me.
He’s gonna get $80+
Reliever Evan Phillips and the Atlanta Braves are in agreement on a three-year, $35 million contract. Biggest deal of the winter so far sends the veteran to Atlanta, which already has one of the best bullpens in baseball.
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What does Pete Fairbanks market look like?
- Elite Stuff
- Elite velo (97.2 mph)
- Great K-BB% (19.7%)
- Low SIERA (3.40)
- Cut-ride (Cubs)
But..
- 6.31 ERA in ‘26
- 24% GB% (Down over 20%)
- 11.8% Barrel% (More than doubled)
A gamble with huge upside / stuff at < $8 M AAV?
2021-2026 Pitcher Seasons (Min. 40 IP - n = 2,410)
From this sample the most predictive metrics of next season’s ERA is:
Stuff+
Pitching+
SIERA
K-BB%
xERA
xFIP
In that order.
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Northside Soundtrack retweeted
Either there was some data entry/Trackman error in last night’s game, or 36 year old Junior Lake broke the Statcast exit velo record with a 125.8 mph groundout 🤯
I created a Statcast dashboard for the Dominican Winter League (LIDOM) 🇩🇴
Features leaderboards for both hitters and pitchers
rayballstein-lidom-statcast.…
2021-2026 Pitcher Seasons (Min. 40 IP - n = 2,410)
From this sample the most predictive metrics of next season’s ERA is:
Stuff+
Pitching+
SIERA
K-BB%
xERA
xFIP
In that order.
Indeed Michael King is a tremendous fit on the South Side!
Dove into the free agent starting pitching market with @JesseRogersESPN.
He explains why Michael King is a good fit with the White Sox.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
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Northside Soundtrack retweeted
The best player in baseball. Pete Crow-Armstrong is named to the All-MLB 1st team. He'll be bringing in more hardware tomorrow.
Since 2022, there have been 57 $10 M+ AAV reliever seasons in total, and in only 7 of them has their FanGraphs “Dollars” value outperformed their AAV.
The average ROI per year on these, based on AAV and FanGraphs Dollars is ~42%.
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Northside Soundtrack retweeted
2.88 FIP at Chase Field. Clay Holmes level GB machine, + Stuff, 97+ mph on the FB/Sinker.
FanGraphs proj: 2 years / $24 M
MLBTR: 2 years / $13 M
No brainer at MLBTR projection for the Cubs.
Is signing a QO attached player worth it for the Cubs?
I’d argue it really hamstrings one of their biggest organizational strengths in the draft.
How much big league production will it take to out-value a 2nd/5th rd pick, the bonus flexibility that brings, and IFA$?
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FF Velo leaders among arms with more than 1.5 ft difference between their extension and release height.
A lot of studs, and a lot of giant human beings, and then 5’8” Kaima Taira!
Kaima Taira is so unique.
In 2026, pitchers average less than a foot difference between FF extension and release height. (6.5 ft ext. - 5.8 ft release ht.)
Taira, standing at 5’8”, gets 6’8” extension with a 4’9” release height. Nearly a 2 foot difference! Also sits 95+
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Kaima Taira is so unique.
In 2026, pitchers average less than a foot difference between FF extension and release height. (6.5 ft ext. - 5.8 ft release ht.)
Taira, standing at 5’8”, gets 6’8” extension with a 4’9” release height. Nearly a 2 foot difference! Also sits 95+
2.88 FIP at Chase Field. Clay Holmes level GB machine, + Stuff, 97+ mph on the FB/Sinker.
FanGraphs proj: 2 years / $24 M
MLBTR: 2 years / $13 M
No brainer at MLBTR projection for the Cubs.
Perhaps I’m putting too much stock into Carter’s optimism, but this seems like a very logical move to try and stop this neck issue.
There was a 0% chance the Cubs were going to go into the lockout without clarity and a plan for one of their very best assets in Ben Brown.
Here in Vegas for the GM meetings - just interviewed Carter Hawkins.
On the Ben Brown front: He will likely undergo surgery. Brown has been dealing with a neck injury for a couple of years.
Hawkins' full response:
"Feels like every time we really get in a groove with him there's a setback, so we're likely to move forward with the surgical option for him to really try and make sure we nip this in the bud and have him back to full strength, so that's a process that's going on right now. We'll update that when we get more information but expect him to pitch for us next year."
My interview with Carter airs at 6 p.m. on @WatchMarquee.
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