Nessuno

I've summarized where things stand at the AI frontier: - Unreleased models (Anthropic's Models 3 and 4) are now half-way between AI2027's Agents-1 and 2 (graphs fixed for the bug flagged by the AI2027 authors). @DKokotajlo please let me know if I missed something. - We're right on track with AI2027's prediction of an automated coder (AC) for April 2027, wild. Public models are now massively lagging unreleased models (1 day vs. 1 week of autonomous high-quality work). Fuelled by RSI, the gap is huge and growing. - This trajectory, if continued, means a world-changing intelligence explosion in 2027, so the public needs to know. I highly recommend reading more on the topic to grasp what's coming.

Excited to see that the Aaronson-Ambainis conjecture has apparently been proved! But depressed to see the amount of completely incorrect commentary on its implications, so here's an attempt to clear things up.

The dominant model people use to think about AI's effect on the labor market is automation. But perhaps commoditization is a better model. Automation implies job apocalypse. Commoditization implies plentiful jobs with low wages. 1/

4/ Five. None of this excuses the rise of bigotry on both the American nationalist right and radical left, or a politics that refuses to condemn fundamentalist movements bent on crushing freedom and any chance of coexistence. Parts of the radical fringe won't condemn Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad or the Islamic Republic of Iran, and some romanticize them, even as these groups promise Muslims and Jews, Arabs and Israelis alike a future of never-ending wars. That infatuation is not innocent. It is bound up with Jew-hatred, with singling out Israel, and with an obsession with dismantling it. We saw this obsession in campaigns across the country this cycle. The United States has very few allies like Israel, particularly in the Middle East - whether in terms of shared values, reliability as a security partner, deep-rooted pro-American sentiment, intelligence-gathering capabilities, entrepreneurship, or technological edge.

🚨 BREAKING: Israeli prosecutor charges Bar-Ilan University math lecturer with allegedly planning a mass terror campaign targeting Arab citizens The State Prosecutor’s Office says the 60-year-old Petah Tikva resident spent more than 3 years planning a coordinated attack by 72 Jewish terrorists divided into 12 cells, aimed at killing hundreds of Arab Israelis, including Bedouins, as well as Palestinians in East Jerusalem and the West Bank. According to the indictment, he called the plan “EYT” “The Nation Will Carry Out Transfer” and conducted reconnaissance, prepared operational documents and tried for around 18 months to recruit partners and supporters to carry out the plan, but was unsuccessful in finding anyone willing to join him. He also sought to recruit former MK Moshe Feiglin. After Feiglin refused to cooperate, the suspect allegedly threatened to publish a letter damaging him ahead of the upcoming elections. His name remains under a court-imposed gag order.

Ah yes, the primary obstacle to the money-saving roll out of clean energy generation is ... Environmental protection laws. Ffs.

The Irish view of the Jews has not changed at all since James Joyce described it in Ulysses, and in particular in this little song

One of the first interesting experiences I had in this project at Princeton was meeting great men. I had never met very many great men before. But there was an evaluation committee that had to try to help us along, and help us ultimately decide which way we were going to separate the uranium. This committee had men like Compton and Tolman and Smyth and Urey and Rabi and Oppenheimer on it. I would sit in because I understood the theory of how our process of separating isotopes worked, and so they'd ask me questions and talk about it. In these discussions one man would make a point. Then Compton, for example, would explain a different point of view. He would say it should be this way, and he was perfectly right. Another guy would say, well, maybe, but there's this other possibility we have to consider against it. So everybody is disagreeing, all around the table. I am surprised and disturbed that Compton doesn't repeat and emphasize his point. Finally at the end, Tolman, who's the chairman, would say, "Well, having heard all these arguments, I guess it's true that Compton's argument is the best of all, and now we have to go ahead." It was such a shock to me to see that a committee of men could present a whole lot of ideas, each one thinking of a new facet, while remembering what the other fella said, so that, at the end, the decision is made as to which idea was the best -- summing it all up -- without having to say it three times. These were very great men indeed. -- from the First Annual Santa Barbara Lectures on Science and Society, University of California at Santa Barbara (1975)

Why you can’t do RSI as fast as you like -

Prediction: the LLM community will notice that looped transformers are fixed point iteration of a learned operator, and will rediscover Halpern alg, resolvents, and other animals.. under new names (smth like "inverse residual looping"). Then they'll rediscover dynamical systems and well see "looping with auxiliary memory".

This really isn't true. If there is a specific occasion that calls for very strong and alarming language, I will use it (and have in the past). We do not know, at this time, just how wet this winter will be. It could be just slightly wetter than average, or dramatically so.

المشهد الميداني يثبت يوماً بعد يوم أن الحق يعلو ولا يُعلَى عليه. الجيش اليمني يسجل تقدماً ميدانياً بارزاً، والتحالف العربي بقيادة السعودية سند حقيقي في معركة عودة الشرعية والأمان. نحو مستقبل أفضل لليمن بإذن الله. ✨

Society Explained — 100 Theories of How Society Works society.clearerthinking.org/

"We don't want no Zionists here" Democratic Congressional candidate Brad Lander, who is Jewish, is cursed at and thrown out of a protest in NYC. Lander went along with extreme rhetoric against Israel and AIPAC during the primary to win votes, something he admitted made him "queasy" because it played into antisemitism. Maybe the fact that he's being harassed anyway is a sign that next time, he should just stick to campaigning on his actual views.

This is just plain false. The median econ faculty member is center-left, but that's only because it's one of the few disciplines with some semblance of ideological diversity. Compare that with the English Dept, History Dept, Sociology Dept, Anthropology Dept etc., where the median faculty member is hard-left and faculty on the right are practically nonexistent in most departments. In econ, "heterodox" means one of about 17 camps of Marxist/Radical/Post-Keynesian thought that nonetheless happen to agree with each other on 95% of everything. They are uncommon outside of a few niche departments not because they have been ideologically excluded, but because their scholarship is comparatively low quality and can only pass muster in the echo chamber of Marxist/Radical/Post Keynesian house journals

The sheer scale of destruction amid Himalayan glacier collapse disaster is horrifying, as is presumptive human toll. This was no mere flash flood or mudslide--it was more akin to a geologic-scale debris avalanche or "inland tsunami." The footage emerging is almost unbelievable.