The Election Center

In case it wasn’t already clear, we have a lot of work to do in North Carolina. Republicans have lost 30% of their registration lead in one fell swoop. We are still well ahead of 2024, but the bleeding needs to be stopped and reversed ahead of 2028. I think it’s clear that the strategy here has to start with regaining the trust of Republican voters. A close 2nd is reversing leftward trends in Asheville, Charlotte, PTI, and RDU. The rightward trend in NC-1 needs to be fully capitalized on, as well. Rs will need to re-elect Budd, flip executive seats, AND flip 8 US House seats ALL in 2028. That’s a tall task from where we stand right now.

Now that Scott Colom has won, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Georgia have elected black senators statewide. Georgia and Florida have elected black governors. They come from both parties. It can no longer be argued that black voters need protected districts to win political representation. The Callais decision is vindicated. Republican legislators, do the right thing and end court-ordered gerrymandering that gives the other team free seats. No mercy.

Compared to the other contested states, Alaska didn’t really have a blue tsunami. Wave? Sure. But not a tsunami. Much like Guam—both are disconnected from the contiguous US so that likely plays some sort of role in that.

Projection: Democrat Scott Colom is the Projected Winner in the Mississippi Senate election. He will defeat Incumbent Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. Democratic Gain #Election2026 #ElectionDay #MSSen

The last week I have seen a lot of Indiana Republicans posting this map which depicts the US house races if redistricting passed. The numbers are technically correct, but it is missing a ton of context that almost certainly would’ve led to different results. I still think redistricting, and the subsequent primary challenges, were 100% the best move. Here’s a few reasons why 1- Redistricting was a national story, but to those of us in the state, that was very far from the only good reason why those Senators lost. The Indiana State Senate has been famous for being the chamber where “good legislation goes to die” for decades. Many Republicans there have consistently under-delivered for conservative principles my whole life 2- Redistricting isn’t built for a blue tsunami. It only works in a 50/50 year or close to it. In the 2026 election, it wouldn’t have made a difference if we have 190 House Republicans, or 180, or 50. We are not controlling that chamber regardless. However, those 2 seats that we failed to pick up absolutely could be decisive for the future of our country in 2028, in a more neutral environment. 3- If Redistricting passed, it would have caused our Republican House Incumbents to actually come back to their district, spend money, and run a serious campaign for the first time in forever. If that happened, it would both be great for other Republicans down ballot, and most of those Republican congresspeople likely would’ve won. 4- Let’s just assume that my previous statement would be incorrect and actually we lost most of our US House seats. Would it really be the worst thing in the world to have our current congresspeople have to run as non-incumbents and face primary challenges? A few are solid, but how many of our current House Republicans would you say are true leaders and vocally addressing the serious problems our country is going through? Lastly, I didn’t even want to address this. It is time for Republicans to come together and figure out how to fix this mess. Most of the Indiana State Senators who voted against redistricting I have heard nothing but good things about on a personal level. We shouldn’t be re-litigating past issues to prove a point.

Thank you, Mississippi.

Projection: Democrat Scott Colom is the Projected Winner in the Mississippi Senate election. He will defeat Incumbent Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. Democratic Gain #Election2026 #ElectionDay #MSSen

Semafor: Many Democrats believe Minnesota Governor-elect Amy Klobuchar will pick Rep. Kelly Morrison (D-MN) to fill her seat in the US Senate Link to article: semafor.com/article/11/11/20…

I'm almost at the point where I think that the goal in 2029 should just be to throttle inflation as much as possible, because I worry that a scenario where voters endlessly punish the incumbent party forever is going end up standing in the way of every other progressive goal.

I was thinking of other ways to protect these seats (as I wrote about today, expanding the House is the best way): I wonder if you could get a GOP state senator to vote for new maps in exchange for a nice safe seat + some other policy priorities.

I don’t understand the whole dummymander thing. In a blue tsunami you’ve lost the house why does it matter that the dems have an extra 7 seats? The point of those maps are to be able to win the house even in D+5, you should get greedy and try for 11R-3D it’s the smart thing to do

After reaching out to Jackson County, MS for an update on outstanding ballots, a representative said they had “no idea” and were actively working to “figure out” the number of remaining ballots.

I think people are getting way ahead of themselves here. How is this dummymander if it takes a D+13 year to break it? Any other cycle in recent history Republicans would win more seats than their popular vote % would suggest.

The GOP in NC did gerrymander state districts, sure. Was it done *so intensly*? No. Our State Constitution makes it *very* hard for Democrats to win given their voters are all clustered into urban areas. If you want to blame anything blame the Stevenson criteria.

Wisconsin Democrats are thoroughly unaware (or don’t care) that their plan to join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is prohibited by the Compact Clause of the U.S. Constitution. heartlandpost.com/democrats-…