Jon Tonge (@JonTonge) profile picture

British & Irish politics professor, Univ. of Liverpool. Views mine NOT Univ’s. Retweets/likes NOT endorsements: made me think/laugh. j.tonge@liv.ac.uk

Joined November 2011
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Jon Tonge retweeted
Following the latest LucidTalk (LT) @BelTel polling (Autumn26 poll) re. a NI Border Referendum - Here is the updated LT 'Poll-of-Polls' re. the NI Border Ref. Q. There's no change in the 'running total', but a small change (in brackets) when the 'Don't Knows' are excluded. The running total is: Pro-NIintheUK 47%, pro-united Ireland(UI) 35%, 'Don't Knows' 18%. - exc. 'Don't Knows' that's pro-NIintheUK 57% (-1), pro-UI 43% (+1).
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Jon Tonge retweeted
EXCLUSIVE: The gap between support for Irish unity & NI staying in UK has narrowed to 4 points in the past year. A new @LucidTalk poll shows 46% of voters want to maintain the Union, while 42% would choose a united Ireland if a border poll was held now. belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/…
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Here it is seat-by-seat, you can see all the workings on our site. You can also enter different first preferences and play with different scenarios.
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The most recent polls compared to first preference votes at the last Assembly election.
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Jon Tonge retweeted
EXCLUSIVE: SF support surges as DUP hits 5-yr low & TUV rises in @LucidTalk poll. UUP down but still just ahead of unionist rivals as Alliance & SDLP fall 🧵 🟢SF 28% (+6) 🔷UUP 15% (-1) 🟠TUV 14% (+2) ◼️DUP 14% (-1) 🔴SDLP 11% (-2) 🟨Alliance 9% (-1) belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/…
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Jon Tonge retweeted
EXLCUSIVE: A political bombshell for the DUP as loyalist Jamie Bryson is more popular with unionists than Gavin Robinson in our new @LucidTalk poll. And they have more faith in Upper Bann MP Carla Lockhart than in the DUP leader on "key unionist issues". belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/…
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Carla Lockhart’s departure leaves the DUP at its lowest number of MPs since the 1997 Westminster election. The Party is at its lowest % of MLAs since the 1998 Assembly election (27.7%) and the lowest % (26.4%) of councillors since the 2001 local election.
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Jon Tonge retweeted
It's been the long goodbye, but Carla Lockhart will quit the DUP early next week. She's its youngest MP with its biggest majority. She will join forces with Jim Allister - even if not joining his party. Double trouble lies ahead for the DUP. belfasttelegraph.co.uk/comme…
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DUP confirms: ✖️No more joint FM / dFM engagements. ✖️Will block Michelle O’Neill attending any events as First Minister ✖️Blocked a meeting with President Connolly and with Prime Minister ✖️Will block FM from attending Cenotaph on Remembrance Sunday bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwly…
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Deputy First Minister @little_pengelly formally writes to First Minister @moneillsf & Head of Civil Service. “I am explicitly and formally withholding my consent…for Michelle O’Neill to travel to Glasgow or participate in events in her official capacity as First Minister.”
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DUP MP @carlalockhart has published a lengthy statement on her Facebook page. She ends by saying if the party tries to “carve out a halfway house approach and to gaslight those who trusted us , I simply can no longer be party to that, and I will take my own course.”
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For anyone interested in the full summary of this morning's judgement on the Garvaghy parade you can read Mr Justice Scoffield's ruling here 👉 judiciaryni.uk/files/judicia…
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Our projection on the latest @moreincommonuk poll for the NI Assembly ☘️ SF — 29 🦁 DUP — 20 🔷 UUP — 12 🤝 AP — 9 🌹 SDLP — 9 Ⓣ TUV — 7 🌱 GP — 2 ⚫ Ind — 2
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2/ Where the public stands on Drumcree 53% say the Secretary of State was right to block the parade. Nationalist and Alliance voters overwhelmingly support the Secretary of State’s decision (91% of SF voters, 84% of SDLP voters and 81% of Alliance voters say it was the right decision); most unionist voters disagree. 85% of TUV voters, 76% of DUP voters and 55% of UUP voters say the Secretary of State’s decision to block the parade on the Garvaghy Road was wrong. Protestants as a whole are more divided (54% wrong, 28% right). 53% say the Parades Commission was wrong to allow the parade down the Garvaghy Road in the first place. 87% of Sinn Féin voters, 75% of SDLP voters and 74% of Alliance voters say the Parades Commission determination was wrong. DUP and TUV voters take the opposite view with 73% and 74% respectively saying the Parades Commission determination was the right one. UUP voters are split with 46% saying it was the right decision and 39% saying it was the wrong decision by the Parades Commission. • • 38% sympathise more with the Garvaghy Road residents, 21% with the Portadown Orangemen, and 41% do not pick a side (choosing both equally, neither or don’t know). Among Protestants, more do not take a side (44%) than back the Orangemen (42%).
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The first test of public opinion since the #Drumcree dispute. @Moreincommon_ poll Sinn Féin 30% (+5) DUP 18% (+1) UUP 13% (nc) TUV 11% (–1) Alliance 9% (–2) SDLP 9% (nc) Ind / Others: 4% (-1) Green 3% (-1) People Before Profit 1% (-1) Aontú 1% (nc) (+/- changes since July)
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Jon Tonge retweeted
The BelTel Podcast | The Upper Bann MP Carla Lockhart has been to the forefront of NI politics ever since the re-emergence of the Drumcree Parade issue. But who is Carla Lockhart? And what are her options if she left the DUP? tinyurl.com/mbhzvxru
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Jon Tonge retweeted
Despite her senior colleagues downplaying the chances of Carla Lockhart leaving, she appears to be preparing to walk over Drumcree. Almost a decade ago, her party had 10 MPs. It now has half that number. And if 5 becomes 4, the DUP enters the danger zone. belfasttelegraph.co.uk/comme…
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NEW headline voting intention from Ipsos 📊Labour on 32% with a lead of +8 – the largest Labour lead Ipsos have recorded this parliament 📊Conservatives take second place the first time since June 2025 📊Reform UK down 3 points and Greens down 5
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Dexys Midnight Runners, Manchester
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