Strata retweeted
The end of an era.
It does, in fact, seem like my 1.5 year streak is coming to an end. It was a good run, but just like anyone else, eventually I will be wrong.
Over the past 500 days, I managed to capture every single major swing movement, playing the bear market perfectly and managing to capture the local bottom at 62K as well.
However, I think it’s important to acknowledge mistakes and reflect on things. It was definitely foolish not to realize any gains from the profits made on the way up. In doing so, the market erased nearly all of them.
Of course, I am in a much better position than most. I didn’t lose any money on the drop, but I did give back uPNL, which in my eyes is basically the same as having lost it, despite not actually losing anything like many others most likely have.
The market does have a funny way of humbling everyone, and given the context, let me be a prime example of that. When you’re at the top of your game, winning consistently and predicting every major movement, the devil comes for you.
The only lesson learned here is to always make sure to take profits off the table. That was indeed my mistake. I was right in capturing the movement upwards, but wrong in derisking and wrong to remain fixated on one particular price region. As a swing trader and investor, the biggest mistakes I have usually made have been taking profits too soon. Hence, I didn’t want to make that mistake this time around. But again, sometimes taking profits too soon might be the sensible thing to do.
I am still, of course, bullish on the HTF. Anyone who understands how markets operate will understand why it’s foolish to be bearish on an asset that has proven itself for 20 years. I am still in my swing positions and spot positions. I just thought it was necessary to create this post.
If BTC happens to test 62.6K in the coming weeks, my current 75–76K continuation long gets stopped out. That will be the true invalidation of "I was wrong" with my first major swing being stopped.
Now, the important distinction here is that if we test 62.6K, I will still be holding my initial swing long entry, the one I have been holding for months. The invalidation on this is 31K, as I’m utilizing cross margin.
I will still be holding all of my spot as well.
So, the key takeaway regarding my positioning:
Long from 75–76K > Inval. 62K
Long from 62.6K > Inval. 31K
Spot from 65.9K > Inval. none
BTC has now retraced more than half of the move upwards. Only time will tell if we are able to start forming a base soon.
A humbling experience, which is exactly what I have been after for a while now. It does get boring being right all the time. There is no challenge when that is the case. It might be painful to round trip nice gains, but it was necessary in the context of humbling my mindset. It’s time to get back to the drawing board.
Always be humble, because what God gives, He can also take. And most importantly, take profits. Nobody goes broke doing so.
One thing I can promise you is that I never ask people to judge me on my winners, I ask them to judge me on my losers because I have so few.
Strata retweeted
⚠️⚠️ If Nvidia fires Jensen Huang, America loses the AI race. And China wins it. ⚠️⚠️
I'm choosing my words carefully.
Nvidia's board is deciding whether to remove its founder. Wall Street wiped out hundreds of billions of dollars in a single evening, and everyone is pretending you can replace a CEO like you change a light bulb.
You can't replace Jensen Huang.
This isn't about morality. It's about mechanics.
Let's start from the beginning.
Three engineers meet in a Denny's in San Jose. Jensen is 30. As a teenager, he washed dishes in that same kind of diner. The plan: chips for 3D graphics, in a market that doesn't exist yet.
The first product flops. The Sega deal falls apart. Nvidia is weeks away from dying. Jensen goes to Sega, admits his chip won't work, and asks them for money anyway. Sega invests $5 million. That money saves the company.
For years, he opens his meetings with the same line: we are 30 days from going out of business.
Then comes the GeForce, the first GPU. Then CUDA. He decides to make his chips programmable for any kind of computation, not just video games. Billions burned for a decade on a bet nobody understands. Wall Street hates it. He holds.
Then AlexNet, the neural network that kicks off the deep learning revolution, is trained on two Nvidia graphics cards. Jensen understands what it means before anyone else. He pivots the entire company to AI. He personally hand-delivers the first DGX-1 supercomputer to a small research lab called OpenAI.
Today Nvidia is worth around $4 trillion. Almost all the AI on the planet runs on its chips.
That's not luck. That's 33 years of tryhard.
And here's what people don't understand about founders.
A founder CEO isn't a job title. It's a nervous system. Jensen has around sixty direct reports. He knows every layer of the stack: transistor physics, chip architecture, software, data centers, TSMC, customers, governments. He sees the next bottleneck before it shows up.
That kind of awareness isn't taught in an MBA. It doesn't transfer in a three-month handover. It's built over three decades of brutal decisions, made against everyone's advice.
Right now, no one else on Earth has that level of awareness of the system. Even Dan Ives, one of the most followed analysts on Wall Street, says it: Jensen is not replaceable, and no one on the bench can step in seamlessly. The name floated for interim CEO is the CFO. An excellent CFO. But the question isn't who keeps the books. It's who decides the next architecture.
We've seen this movie before. Twice.
Steve Jobs. Apple's board pushes him out. Serious managers take over. Twelve years later, Apple is months from bankruptcy. Jobs comes back. iMac, iPod, iPhone. Apple becomes the most valuable company in the world.
Travis Kalanick. Investors push him out. Uber becomes calmer, more profitable. And walks away from the most important bet of its generation: it sells its self-driving unit. Today Waymo runs robotaxis across American cities, and Uber signs partnerships with the people it could have beaten. A company that manages. No longer a company that conquers.
The pattern is always the same. A board optimizes for reputational risk. A founder optimizes for the mission. Replace the second with the first, and the company doesn't die right away. It just stops making the bets that matter.
And the further we go into AI, the truer this gets.
When everything changes every six months, when a single architecture decision commits $100 billion, when thousands of agents execute what a handful of humans decide, value concentrates in one thing: the judgment of whoever holds the wheel. AI doesn't dilute the founder's role. It multiplies it.
Should national security concerns be taken seriously? Of course. An independent investigation is normal. But the board itself said it had no reason to believe Nvidia's secrets or national security were compromised. And we're talking about removing the most strategic person in American tech before the findings are even in.
So let's ask one question.
If a Chinese intelligence operation really was targeting Nvidia, what would its best possible outcome be?
Not a stolen secret. Jensen Huang's exit.
Beijing doesn't need to beat Nvidia.
The board can do it for them.
Strata retweeted
$SNDK Looking primed 👀
Price is up 13% today and has reclaimed the 0.618 fib after dipping into the buyzone.
I am still happy buying here, especially if price can reclaim the 50WMA, which is the next low risk entry.
Wave 3 target: 355% 🚀
$SNDK I've nailed this 👀
Price is down another 22% today and down 51% since I went bearish on it.
It has sliced through the 0.618 fib and I now expect a test of the lower 0.786 fib.
If support shows up there I'll be buying heavy.
Strata retweeted
Our message to Nvidia's board:
Do not fire Jensen Huang.
There is no clear replacement for Jensen Huang. We are confident that his departure would ultimately be a net negative for Nvidia, its shareholders, and the AI Revolution.
First, take a look at the data. History also suggests that removing a successful CEO will come with a significant cost.
A study of 187 forced CEO departures from S&P 1500 companies found that removing outperforming CEOs resulted in negative long-term stock returns. This case would be no different, in our view.
Jensen Huang is the definition of an outperforming CEO. Nvidia's board must not make a decision in the heat of the moment.
The board should take the time to conduct a thorough investigation and consult with shareholders, with a strong emphasis on the latter.
Quite literally, Nvidia's board should convene a special shareholder meeting and hold an advisory vote on this decision. This is the most consequential CEO controversy in world history. Shareholders deserve a say.
In addition, Nvidia's stock, $NVDA, is now down -35% in 26 trading days, nearly half of which is a result of the recent scandal.
We believe Jensen Huang's potential removal as CEO is now ~80% priced in.
Why take an action with massive downside potential when the market has already priced in much of that risk?
The downside of retaining Huang may be limited, while the potential upside is tremendous.
Lastly, history shows that retaining Jensen Huang could still lead to a favorable outcome. In 2019, Amazon retained Jeff Bezos as CEO after his extramarital affair became public, and the company's stock subsequently surged +108% by 2021.
Personal misconduct should not be ignored, but it must also be distinguished from corporate wrongdoing and weighed against the consequences of removing an executive who is instrumental to the company's success.
We believe Jensen Huang is an irreplaceable part of Nvidia and the AI Revolution more broadly.
Once the dust settles, firing Jensen Huang would prove to be a costly mistake.
It is time to pause and consult your shareholders.
Strata retweeted
This is f*cking insane
Everyone is talking about Jensen Huang's affair this week. Almost nobody is talking about what he told CBS about the next $15 trillion
Nvidia CEO:
"Energy comes in, intelligence comes out. Input, output. It's as simple as that"
In 5 minutes, he explains the whole AI economy from first principles:
0:00 - 350 years ago: electricity let us power anything
0:46 - The internet era: data centers let us find anything
1:09 - AI: software that reasons and uses your tools to do anything
1:48 - One photo of a backyard → CAD files for the builders
2:35 - The AI factory: what a data center actually makes
3:44 - The math: a $100T economy, $15T of it needs more intelligence
4:49 - Why electricians and builders are the quiet winners
When AI stocks run, most people blame hype
Jensen is teaching the stack underneath:
energy → AI factory → tokens → intelligence → every industry
Old way: data centers store information
New way: AI factories manufacture intelligence
Better than any $2,000 AI course I've seen
Who wins bigger from this, chip makers or electricians?
Strata retweeted
🚨Hearing from extremely large shareholders that they still want Jensen in charge as CEO even after the VP affair report
This man has some insanely loyal shareholders
Strata retweeted
Jensen Huang cheating on his wife is reprehensible. But with a second alleged affair suddenly surfacing, something feels very off.
Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates had affairs, yet neither faced this kind of immediate coordinated pressure to be ousted as CEO. Tech billionaires having affairs or women problems is not new.
I feel as though someone is deliberately trying to destroy Jensen’s reputation and force him out of NVIDIA.
Am I the only one who suspects something more coordinated is happening here?
Strata retweeted
$NVDA: Let's say Jensen Huang slept with 10 different women...let's say 20. Does it change anything?
I thought the big deal was that he slept with a spy. Now consensual sex is an issue too? The coordinated effort to smear and attack an icon is an obvious ploy to take him out as head of $NVDA ... But by whom? I want an investigation into THAT!
Strata retweeted
A much better solution for NVIDIA’s board, shareholders, customers and employees (and America) would to (a) finish their investigation and (b) make @JensenHuang the chairman if it comes to that.
Strata retweeted
@TheEconomist must go
Jensen built one of the greatest companies of all time, and all you do is bitch about how best to centrally plan and control markets
Strata retweeted
Im back.
Sometimes, its necessary to reset & come back to the market with a fresh set of eyes.
Reflecting on these past few weeks, I would say that it has been painful. Lots of despair. It seems like the narrative this time around is the Anthropic IPO with the markets already bracing for another anti-crypto regulator like Gensler with Trump losing midterms.
Observing things from a fresh mind, alot of people are frustrated & exhausted. I can admit myself, even after 7 years of experience, it is a tad bit frustrating but again, reflecting on things, I think this correction was very much needed in a way after the impulse upwards. Just I wasn't prepared/hedged in the sense of protecting my lower entries.
I think whats interesting is that as attention is shifting from BTC, with the Anthropic IPO, we saw the same type of thing with SpaceX. In which BTC formed a macro bottom shortly after and because everyone was focused on catching the biggest IPO in history, they ignored BTC. Getting a similar vibe this time around. When observing things in general from not just a technical but fundamental standpoint, aside from the market being in complete despair an BTC down -17% from the highs, I still believe this is the perfect time to add exposure if you haven't already. Hence me still being long, continuing to add spot exposure, and executing some lower leverage longs in the process.
Usually times like this is where the most money is made. Maximum uncertainty, maximum fear & most importantly, the fact that BTC is being smacked at every angle with every bit of fud being thrown its way... I actually think its acted relatively resilient despite what has been thrown its way these past few weeks.
You had the Binance hack, rates being held, DXY rallying, bonds still increasing, MSTR the new fud around the block about delisting, the Ledger wallet hack, hot CPI. Honestly, you would expect BTC to be sub-50K by now with that amount of shit happening.
But considering its still in the same upper range impulsing from the lows, i think we can assume only 1 of 2 things. Either 1. $BTC is heavily delayed & about to react very negatively to this news in the short term, we form a new low into EOY then the recovery is even more violent than the first one.
Or 2. BTC's resilience to this negative news is showing early signs & characteristics of how a bull market begins. Instead of extending lower on significantly bad news, we in fact use that to capitulate leverage in the market before the next leg higher.
We will have clarity in due time. If structure start reclaiming the range, well then as long as we accept above, its go time. Until then, market is in maximum uncertainty even from the few people that I know who are very good traders. I would be naive to say that I don't feel the same way. I am a tad bit uncertain myself which is why I am sticking with my plan despite it all.
Through maximum uncertainty, is maximum opportunity with BTC. lets see if this time will be different.
Strata retweeted
Anthropic reportedly told sell-side analysts its SpaceX compute contract won't be extended past the middle of next year.
Elon's answer: "We would be happy to take the compute back. No problem. But I think the opposite is going to happen."
Dario bluffed to the banks to sell his IPO. Wrong person to bluff.
My call: after today Elon is more likely to cancel the contract or reprice it higher, not less.
This is very good for SpaceX revenue, if the terms get renegotiated to todays price, you can expect revenue to x2-3
Here's why. Anthropic pays SpaceX about $9.3B a quarter. Its S-1 has up to $120.5B of SpaceXAI compute through 2029. CoreWeave says demand is 10x supply and short-term compute sells for over $40M per MW a year. Anthropic just paid $3.4B for someone else's generators because the turbine line runs into the 2030s.
That's not a customer with options. That's a tenant telling the landlord he might move out, in the middle of a housing shortage.
Elon doesn't need Anthropic. Grok will eat every GW he takes back, and the next lab is already in line at today's prices.
Anthropic needs Elon. Now Elon knows they'll talk down the deal in front of the banks.
Next renewal, the price goes up. Or the keys go to Grok.
Never bluff the kingmaker.
$SPCX
Strata retweeted
SpaceX is making moves to become the first AI carrier $SPCX
• Current cell towers are still mostly “dumb” radios. The Qualcomm deal is about making them AI-native.
• Edge inference at the tower, like an updated Akamai for AI
• Starlink Direct-to-Cell and V3 satellites alongside the terrestrial build
Qualcomm’s CEO said the SpaceX agreement is finalized — not an engagement. SpaceX will build the base stations. Qualcomm supplies the silicon and the RAN accelerator for a terrestrial network he called one of the largest 5G deployments in the United States, with an AI-native architecture.
Strata retweeted
Tokenised deposits are now in live pilot in Singapore. As more banks issue them, interoperability raises three questions:
➡️ How do they settle bank to bank?
➡️ How do they connect to payment rails and ISO 20022?
➡️ How do they settle across borders and currencies?
Our team will be at @sgfintechfest 18–20 November. Book a meeting to hear what we've learnt so far: meetings-eu1.hubspot.com/kir…
#SFF2026 #TokenisedDeposits #Interoperability
