Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧

The BBC's Projected National Share in GB translates into the following seat tally: ➡️REF: 376 (+371) 🌹LAB: 113 (-299) 🔸LD: 71 (-1) 🌳CON: 12 (-109) 🟢Green: 5 (+1) Reform Majority of 100.

Bosmere in particular is a good test of the Green's fall in popularity in the polls. One would expect them to tank in a rural seat like this. Their polling is roughly what it was in GE 2024, except their vote is now stacked in urban areas and in freefall in rural areas. If this hypothesis is correct, then expect them to fall to 4th place.

Interesting. Looks like there will be a council by-election in Andy Burnham's own constituency. My hunch is Labour holds this by around 10 points. Let's see if the Burnham bounce sustains and matches what the polls are saying. Notable that Restore Britain is also standing in this ward.

If the Democrats misread the midterm results as an endorsement of socialist candidates and put in place a left wing Democrat nominee for president, then they will lose in 2028. Last week's midterms were not an endorsement of socialism. They were a rejection of Trump's foreign policy which in turn has raised gas prices for the average American. The Democrats were the default choice on the ballot last week for voters to punish Trump.

Bright bit of news for the Greens despite yesterday's by-election in Holborn and St Pancras. Squeezing a gain from the Conservatives because of a fractured right.

Not too shabby...

I'll take that.

50/50 implies Labour or Greens win within a percentage point or two. This won't happen. Labour will win Holborn and St Pancras by more than 10 points. Bookmark this.

Labour has held the Claremont ward in Blackpool, which on paper should be a very comfortable Reform win. Right vote split, left vote consolidated.

I don't know if there was a huge local issue at play here, but on paper this result sums up the Green's fortunes outside of cities: horrendous. This sort of result also confirms why in seats like North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley, the Greens are doomed.

The Right (Conservative/Reform/RESTORE) is forecast to receive 49% of the vote, yet they are projected to receive 40% of the seats across GB. The Left (Labour/LibDem/Green/Nationalist) is forecast to receive 49% of the vote. They are projected to receive 60% of the seats across GB. The Right in Britiain has never been more divided.

Interesting idea in principle, but how would such a card work at a supermarket or corner shop where the merchant is Tesco, Sainsbury's etc..? You buy groceries and booze and cigarettes all in one transaction. Almost impossible to discriminate as to what one buys.

By-election projection for Holborn & St Pancras constituency: 🌹 LAB: 46% (−3) 🟢 Green: 35% (+25) 🌳 CON: 6% (−1) ➡️ RFM: 6% (−) 🟠 LD: 4% (−2) ⚪ OTH: 3% LAB -> Green swing: 14% LAB Hold

No surprises here. Burnham wins in Holborn and St Pancras and the Greens are quashed. The Right is divided and the left is united. Perfect opportunity for an early election from Burnham's perspective. My hunch is Labour wins Holborn and St Pancras by more than a 10% margin.