Chief economist at @InnovateEconomy. Host of the EconTwitter Water Cooler, live on twitter spaces and downloadable here: https://xitter.twitterapi.xyz/t.co/toyjfDruRu
Lancaster, PA
Joined June 2010
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What should we do about high skilled immigration and why? This is the topic of my huge new report with @LettieriDC and @cojobrien: Exceptional by Design. Quick thread on why I think you should read this report.
eig.org/exceptional-by-desig…
Adam Ozimek retweeted
a) This is wrong: the 301s (forced labor), 338s (Canada) & 232s (pharma/chips) were recent, and uncertainty is still historically high.
b) His boss literally threatened Mexico ("CARAVANS") this morning.
c) He's openly admitting they made harmful "wide swings" earlier.
Clearly the progressives are moderating and still paid an election penalty. The lefty politicians see reality even if the pundits don’t. But one way I think progressivism has genuinely become more popular is anti rich messages, esp billionaires. Which I don’t think the center really objects to.
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Adam Ozimek retweeted
While I take the new METR report very seriously as an update toward shorter timelines, it's worth noting that significant parts of AI 2027 are not playing out — in particular, the stock market predictions.
- They predicted the stock market would be up 30% in late 2026 — it's instead around 10% with 1.5 months left
- They said the stock market surge would be driven by "[fictional] OpenBrain, Nvidia, and whichever companies have most successfully integrated AI assistants."
- This doesn't seem right. Nvidia was up around 15% before the Jensen's scandal broke, only modestly outperforming the broader market. It has since dropped, and not just because of the scandal; there's been a wider AI draw down.
- I don't think there's an equivalent of OpenBrain that is leading the stock market. Google is down; Amazon and Microsoft are doing decently well (though clearly not leading a market that's up 30% overall).
- I don't think there are any clear "companies that have most successfully integrated AI assistants" that are driving stock market gains.
Additionally:
- The junior software engineer market is genuinely tougher, though it's unclear if it really counts as being in "turmoil"
- Company revenue does look pretty strong, with e.g. Anthropic looking to earn well beyond OpenBrain's projected $35b
- There are some AI-related protests planned in DC, though I'll be surprised if the 10k prediction isn't off by at least 1 OOM
- Lots of people still think AI hype will blow over
This is consistent with the view that while many AI forecasters have been good at predicting AI capabilities gains as measured by benchmarks, they've been less accurate at forecasting real-world impacts.
Adam Ozimek retweeted
Genel olarak, Ha-Joon Chang’in Kicking Away the Ladder kitabının neredeyse tamamı, tarihsel açıdan hatalı ve yüzeysel bir okumaya dayanıyor. Aslında lise yıllarımda Chang’in çalışmalarını severdim. Ancak lisans döneminde Profesör Koyama ve Rubin ile birlikte yazdığı kitabı okurken dipnotlarda Irwin’in çalışmalarına rastladım. Ardından, Irwin’den başlayarak alakalı literatürü okumaya başlayınca; son 20 yılda iktisat tarihi literatüründe bebek sanayi korumacılığı hipotezinin ampirik olarak büyük ölçüde geçersiz kılındığını görmüş, Chang’in adeta insanları kandırdığını fark etmiştim :D Kitapta resmen doğru ve olgusal bir tane bile bir şey yok. İngiltere’deki gümrük kanunlarını bile doğru aktarmaz! (sheilagh oglieve, Chang’in bu çarpıtmasını çok iyi afişe etmişti:D)
Örneğin Prusya meselesinde, gümrük vergilerinin birincil rolü oynamadığını kabul etse de Chang, bunların “olumlu etkilerini” vurgulamaktan geri durmaz. Oysa bu konudaki nispeten yeni bir çalışma, Prusya örneğinde gümrük vergilerinin etkilerini ampirik olarak ayrıştırarak devletin uyguladığı gümrük vergilerinin etkisiyle “bileşim” ve “fiyat” etkisini birbirinden ayırıyor. Bu ayrıştırmanın ardından, gümrük vergilerinin sanayileşme üzerinde kayda değer bir etkisinin kalmadığını görüyoruz:
Adam Ozimek retweeted
Paul Krugman’a blind spot on inequality everywheremillionaire.substa…
You can build a bubble anywhere that a large broad slice of the population resides that allows you to curate your own feed. The bluesky pitch is the bubble comes with it automatically
Musk buying Twitter, as @AdamSerwer points out, lured conservatives into the trap of thinking that X is real life - and they paid for it.
theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/1…
Adam Ozimek retweeted
There are two investment booms right now. Everyone knows about one of them. The other is oil and gas.
All other business investment is up at a 2% rate over the last year.
Even if you think the problem was implementation and not ideas, I don’t think voters will buy that. New ideas are going to be needed.
Have spoken with many people on the Right in the past week. A recurring theme: must reconstitute the party behind someone who can combine free-market economics, effective culture war, foreign policy realism, and hyper-competent administration. DeSantis frequently mentioned.
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Adam Ozimek retweeted
The "editorial" parts of NEJM, Science, etc. do so much harm to public perception of science. Why do this? Are we going to publish (basically the exact same essay) from a Pentecostal preacher? Science is too important for human prosperity to do this: kevinbryanecon.com/trust.htm…
Adam Ozimek retweeted
🆕 New on Econvitals: a Macroeconomic Simulator that runs the Fed’s FRB/US model on the shock you pick, from rate hikes to tariffs.
A 1-point rate hike that lasts a year: real GDP down by as much as 0.58%, unemployment up by as much as 0.32 points.
econvitals.org/tools/macro-s…
Adam Ozimek retweeted
@coeff_giving is looking to support incubators for new kinds of orgs across our different areas! On abundance and growth, some examples of the kind of orgs I hope could come out of these incubators 👇
We think the world is short of thousands of high-impact nonprofits, and the people to run them.
So we’re launching a Request for Proposals for incubators: organizations that identify promising ideas, recruit and train founders, and support new organizations through launch.
There are two streams:
1️⃣ Scaling existing incubators: For incubators, studios, and accelerators that want to run a larger or dedicated cohort, expand into a new cause area or geography, or offer seed grants.
2️⃣ Seeding new incubators: For individuals or teams who want to start one, especially in geographies where many high-impact organizations could operate but few incubators exist, like India and Nigeria.
Initial applications should take 2–3 hours to complete. Apply by December 18: coefficientgiving.org/funds/…
Adam Ozimek retweeted
“Leftists are better at winning” flopped within 36 hours so they flipped to “actually the winners were leftists” but that also flopped so now six days after the election they’ve pivoted to “let’s get people angry at the guys who just won tough races.”
Adam Ozimek retweeted
I've been won over pretty much completely to Douthat as TV interviewer. He not only extracted more information than most people do when sitting down with this president, but he managed to drop some pretty funny asides without making the conversation about himself.
Two thoughts on this:
1. A man so consumed with hatred that he’d rather go to hell than forgive his enemies is a tragedy. I’d pity him if he was my neighbor or president.
2. This is the most interesting Trump interview I’ve seen in a long time. Feeling good about my prediction that @Douthat60 would be great on 60 Minutes.
Unfortunately the deportation debacle means that anything short of citizenship is now much more riskier
DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin says there will be no "amnesty."
BUT, he says Congress "can look at DACA and figure out a way that these individuals can become maybe legal permanent citizens or something like this."
cnn.com/2026/11/09/politics/…
