Chief economist at @InnovateEconomy. Host of the EconTwitter Water Cooler, live on twitter spaces and downloadable here: https://xitter.twitterapi.xyz/t.co/toyjfDruRu
Lancaster, PA
Joined June 2010
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What should we do about high skilled immigration and why? This is the topic of my huge new report with @LettieriDC and @cojobrien: Exceptional by Design. Quick thread on why I think you should read this report.
eig.org/exceptional-by-desig…
Some people are so transparently driven by making the right people mad that it infests their thinking like a literal disease. Oppositional defiance for the pundit class. I wish they knew we could all see it at least
There's been a lot of discussion lately about company leadership attire + perceived/actual personal conduct. I wanted to see if AI could help *me* navigate this fraught decision, so naturally I turned to @ExpectedParrot
I'm considering the following "looks" for a professional headshot in the company directory 1/
More seriously, we frequently have to rank a large number of things (pictures, plans, ideas, papers, candidates) and being able to easily do both a AI pass & a human pass and then aggregate that information w/ the right statistical model is useful!
If you want to try it out, start here: expectedparrot.com/research-…
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Adam Ozimek retweeted
a) This is wrong: the 301s (forced labor), 338s (Canada) & 232s (pharma/chips) were recent, and uncertainty is still historically high.
b) His boss literally threatened Mexico ("CARAVANS") this morning.
c) He's openly admitting they made harmful "wide swings" earlier.
Clearly the progressives are moderating and still paid an election penalty. The lefty politicians see reality even if the pundits don’t. But one way I think progressivism has genuinely become more popular is anti rich messages, esp billionaires. Which I don’t think the center really objects to.
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Adam Ozimek retweeted
While I take the new METR report very seriously as an update toward shorter timelines, it's worth noting that significant parts of AI 2027 are not playing out — in particular, the stock market predictions.
- They predicted the stock market would be up 30% in late 2026 — it's instead around 10% with 1.5 months left
- They said the stock market surge would be driven by "[fictional] OpenBrain, Nvidia, and whichever companies have most successfully integrated AI assistants."
- This doesn't seem right. Nvidia was up around 15% before the Jensen's scandal broke, only modestly outperforming the broader market. It has since dropped, and not just because of the scandal; there's been a wider AI draw down.
- I don't think there's an equivalent of OpenBrain that is leading the stock market. Google is down; Amazon and Microsoft are doing decently well (though clearly not leading a market that's up 30% overall).
- I don't think there are any clear "companies that have most successfully integrated AI assistants" that are driving stock market gains.
Additionally:
- The junior software engineer market is genuinely tougher, though it's unclear if it really counts as being in "turmoil"
- Company revenue does look pretty strong, with e.g. Anthropic looking to earn well beyond OpenBrain's projected $35b
- There are some AI-related protests planned in DC, though I'll be surprised if the 10k prediction isn't off by at least 1 OOM
- Lots of people still think AI hype will blow over
This is consistent with the view that while many AI forecasters have been good at predicting AI capabilities gains as measured by benchmarks, they've been less accurate at forecasting real-world impacts.
Adam Ozimek retweeted
Genel olarak, Ha-Joon Chang’in Kicking Away the Ladder kitabının neredeyse tamamı, tarihsel açıdan hatalı ve yüzeysel bir okumaya dayanıyor. Aslında lise yıllarımda Chang’in çalışmalarını severdim. Ancak lisans döneminde Profesör Koyama ve Rubin ile birlikte yazdığı kitabı okurken dipnotlarda Irwin’in çalışmalarına rastladım. Ardından, Irwin’den başlayarak alakalı literatürü okumaya başlayınca; son 20 yılda iktisat tarihi literatüründe bebek sanayi korumacılığı hipotezinin ampirik olarak büyük ölçüde geçersiz kılındığını görmüş, Chang’in adeta insanları kandırdığını fark etmiştim :D Kitapta resmen doğru ve olgusal bir tane bile bir şey yok. İngiltere’deki gümrük kanunlarını bile doğru aktarmaz! (sheilagh oglieve, Chang’in bu çarpıtmasını çok iyi afişe etmişti:D)
Örneğin Prusya meselesinde, gümrük vergilerinin birincil rolü oynamadığını kabul etse de Chang, bunların “olumlu etkilerini” vurgulamaktan geri durmaz. Oysa bu konudaki nispeten yeni bir çalışma, Prusya örneğinde gümrük vergilerinin etkilerini ampirik olarak ayrıştırarak devletin uyguladığı gümrük vergilerinin etkisiyle “bileşim” ve “fiyat” etkisini birbirinden ayırıyor. Bu ayrıştırmanın ardından, gümrük vergilerinin sanayileşme üzerinde kayda değer bir etkisinin kalmadığını görüyoruz:
Adam Ozimek retweeted
Paul Krugman’a blind spot on inequality everywheremillionaire.substa…
You can build a bubble anywhere that a large broad slice of the population resides that allows you to curate your own feed. The bluesky pitch is the bubble comes with it automatically
Musk buying Twitter, as @AdamSerwer points out, lured conservatives into the trap of thinking that X is real life - and they paid for it.
theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/1…
I don't think it's blatantly shadowbanning liberal accounts, but I certainly think the algorithm surfaces more conservative content. Admittedly, I haven't used For You in over a year, when that was clearly the case.
The issue with prioritizing verified accounts remains, though.
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I don’t agree. Look around, there’s tons of huge liberal accounts with reach. You can see the algo now, it’s far more neutral than it used to be. Do you not see libs in your feed??
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I think the point holds that this place has a conservative moderator who has turbocharged the already high confidence that right-wing users possess that their views are commonsense majority positions.
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Of course, and I do that personally. But the piece you linked suggests a lot of people don't do that and then mistake what they see for broader reality. I think that's true.
Many very smart people don't seem particularly curious what life looks like from the intellectual middle.
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Having the agency to sign up for a known bubble tends to keep you more clear-eyed than ending up in an algorithm that you mistake for a broad cross-section of mainstream thought.
Conservatives already think their views are default Normal People views. Musk surely didn't help.
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Adam Ozimek retweeted
There are two investment booms right now. Everyone knows about one of them. The other is oil and gas.
All other business investment is up at a 2% rate over the last year.
