Senior Editor & Elections Analyst of the nonpartisan @CookPolitical Report w/ @AmyEWalter. Nerd for 🗺️ maps, ⛷️ ski slopes & 🎻 trad tunes. Has seen enough.
Washington, DC
Joined September 2009
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A fascinating stat @NateSilver538 alluded to the other day: following Dems' wins in KS/MS/SC/TX, 44 of 50 states have elected at least one Democratic senator since 2006.
Only 35 of 50 states have elected at least one Republican senator during that time span.
New @CookPolitical: with more than 117 million votes counted, Dems' lead in the national House vote is up to 13.7 points. cookpolitical.com/vote-track…
New @CookPolitical: with more than 116.7 million votes counted, Dems' lead in the national House vote is up to 13.6 points. cookpolitical.com/vote-track…
Hindsight is 20/20: NC Republicans could have easily drawn a 9R-5D or even a 10R-4D map that would have withstood a blue tsunami (by drawing one more safe Dem seat in the Triad). Instead, by trying for a 11R-3D map, they're on track to end up in a 11D-3R hole.
New @CookPolitical: Last week’s blue tsunami may have pumped the brakes on mid-decade redistricting wars, especially after several GOP maps backfired (or nearly backfired). Full analysis by @ercovey: cookpolitical.com/analysis/h…
New @CookPolitical: with more than 116 million votes counted, Dems' lead in the national House vote is up to 13.5 points. It's now the largest margin for either party since 1974. cookpolitical.com/vote-track…
Dave Wasserman retweeted
Not only do Democrats hold every single seat that Kamala Harris won in 2024 — they’re also on track to win almost every single district that voted for Trump by less than 10 points.
Read more from @ercovey:
cookpolitical.com/analysis/h…
A rare and cool new @CookPolitical job opportunity for someone who loves elections & data visualization and has 1-2 years of relevant experience (including internships): Associate, Election Data & Analytics. cookpolitical.zohorecruit.co…
And one more cool @CookPolitical job opportunity for someone with 3-5 years of professional experience: Manager, Digital Marketing and Engagement. jobs.cookpolitical.com/jobs/…
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New @CookPolitical: with 114.7 million votes counted, Dems' lead in the national House vote is up to 13.1 points. cookpolitical.com/vote-track…
If there's one shift that sums up 2026, it's Kansas's Golden Triangle of meatpacking (Liberal, Dodge City, Garden City, 61% Hispanic), focus of sweeping ICE operations in September:
2024: Trump 15,915 (68%), Harris 7,240 (31%)
2026: Marshall 9,537 (46%), Hamilton 10,411 (51%)
How bad was 2026 for Republicans? Democrats' nominee in #TX09, a gerrymandered Trump +20 seat in the Houston suburbs, won a higher share of the vote than the GOP nominee for Wyoming's House seat.
Fact: 84% of the House districts Dems are on track to flip this year contain a Cracker Barrel, and just 59% are home to a Whole Foods.
By contrast, 67% of the districts Dems flipped in 2018 contained a Whole Foods, and just 56% were home to a Cracker Barrel.
New @CookPolitical: with more than 114 million votes counted, Dems' national lead in the House vote is up to 12.9 points. cookpolitical.com/vote-track…
Dave Wasserman retweeted
VoteHub obtained North Carolina’s list of voters with provisional ballots still to be counted from the State Board of Elections office. They are heavily Democratic and could help Democrats hold NC-05 and flip NC-03.
New @CookPolitical: with more than 113 million votes counted, Dems' national lead in the House vote is up to 12.8 points. cookpolitical.com/vote-track…
