Head of Data Science @VoteHub. Political data analysis, demographics, and US elections.
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Jackson County accounted for by far the largest pool of outstanding votes, and Colom won that batch. His final statewide margin now looks likely to settle around half a percentage point.
Zachary Donnini retweeted
Scott Colom will be Mississippi’s first Black U.S. senator since Reconstruction, its first directly elected Black senator, and its first Democratic senator since 1982, completing a historic upset over incumbent Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith in a barnburner.
RT @RussLatino: Sources close to Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith informed Magnolia Tribune that she called and conceded the race to Senator-Elect…
This quoted post is unavailable.
We have not been able to independently verify the 885-vote Mississippi Senate update reported a couple of hours ago that extended Colom's lead over 4,000 votes. The latest Hinds County results PDF we have seen does not include those votes and was released after Circuit Clerk Zack Wallace said all votes had been counted. The county election commission's phone line is not working, and its website is down, making verification difficult.
This does not mean the reported votes are inaccurate, only that we cannot independently confirm them.
UPDATE, we were able to verify these votes and called for Scott Colom.
xitter.twitterapi.xyz/VoteHub/status/2120642…
PROJECTION: Scott Colom defeats Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in a historic upset in Mississippi, which Trump won by 23 points in 2024. The state’s last Black Senator was born a slave, and its last Democratic senator was a segregationist.
A note on our Mississippi U.S. Senate coverage: Scott Colom is overwhelmingly favored to win. The information currently available points clearly to a Colom victory, though that information can change and has evolved throughout the last week.
Zachary Donnini retweeted
Mississippi U.S. Senate: 807 Hinds County affidavit votes
🔵 Colom: +703 (87.1%)
🔴 Hyde-Smith: +96 (11.9%)
⚪ Pinkins: +8 (1.0%)
Updated statewide totals:
🔵 Colom: 471,354
🔴 Hyde-Smith: 467,401
Colom nets 607 votes, expanding his lead to 3,953 votes (about 0.41 points).
Zachary Donnini retweeted
@VoteHub We've issued a correction. There were 8,000 absentee ballots, not affidavit ballots. This was a mixup.
One way we assess how many ballots may remain in a state like Mississippi is by comparing county vote totals in 2026 with those in 2024. This is an imperfect measure because turnout by county varies substantially between elections, but Jackson County's total is notably lower relative to 2024 than those of demographically similar counties.
Affidavit ballots have consistently favored Colom, and we expect any remaining in Jackson to follow that pattern. However, we cannot yet confirm that all absentee and Election Day votes have been reported. Any outstanding ballots in those categories could favor Hyde-Smith. It's unlikely, but definitely possible those ballots could come.
We appreciate the hard work of election workers across Mississippi, who are facing an unusual level of pressure and attention due to this close election. The slow count and limited information should not be attributed to a lack of effort on their part. They reflect broader shortcomings in the state's reporting system and requirements. Election workers deserve our patience and respect as they complete this process.
Zachary Donnini retweeted
Hi! I wrote the story this data is sourced from. This is from the Washington Post, not AJ or raw FEC data; the numbers are taken from this piece.
You can see the top recipients of that money at the link here: washingtonpost.com/elections…
Colom remains in an overwhelmingly strong position. Even with fewer ballots outstanding in Hinds than expected, the remaining ballots *we know about* are not sufficient for Hyde-Smith to come close to overcoming his lead.
But this illustrates the uncertainty surrounding Mississippi's outstanding vote we do not have to deal with in other states like Virginia, Pennsylvania, California, Arizona, etc. We had considered the possibility that Hinds had fewer ballots remaining and were monitoring it. I still expect a call by the end of the week.
According to @AnnieGrayerCNN, Hinds County has 884 accepted affidavit and mail-in ballots remaining, substantially fewer than previously expected. Those ballots are expected to be counted and the results released shortly.
Zachary Donnini retweeted
Votehub now has full precinct coverage for over 50% of all ballots cast in 2026
My rough RCV calculations show Sullivan netting roughly 1,000 votes against Peltola and Hill netting about 7,000 against Begich. Applied to the current totals, Peltola would lead by about 3,300 votes (1.4%), while Begich would lead by roughly 12,000 (5%).
Zachary Donnini retweeted
Races in VoteHub’s elections catalog now have an 'Open with' button.
The goal is to make it one place to find any election and open it in the tool you need. Terrain and @Redistricter are rolling out now for Georgia, with more to come.
We'll see which ballots these were, but they widened Peltola's lead from 1.1 to 1.8 points. She now has more votes than both Sullivans combined and a solid chance of reaching 50% to avoid RCV, and will if the final drops are as blue as they were in the primary.