AI观察员；美联储观察员；资管打工人. 美股，宏观，偶尔CRYPTO 油管17万订阅，周二，四，日更新 注意：任何平台以我名义拉群，拉投资，推荐股票的都是诈骗！ 商业合作：INVESTMENTTALKJUN@GMAIL.COM
一年两季的加拿大
Joined January 2023
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我最喜欢的一家机构2季度末的展望：
We are focusing slightly more on "capital spenders" like Meta and Alphabet, along with our established "capital suppliers." We are also adding more defensive, steady compounders to balance the high valuations in AI. We are prioritizing flexibility over a fixed strategy since earnings drivers are changing quickly in this cycle.
“我们正将更多精力放在Meta和Alphabet等资本支出型企业，以及我们长期的资本供应商上。同时，为了平衡人工智能领域的高估值，我们正在增加更多防御性强、稳健的复利增长型公司。由于本周期内的盈利驱动因素变化迅速，我们更倾向于保持灵活性，而非采取一成不变的固定策略。”
基本我的展望也是这个方向，然后在这个基础上添加一条：现金牛软件个股
和间谍外遇严重还是和员工外遇严重？后者可以直接构成理由开除。
BREAKING: Nvidia, $NVDA, is preparing to fire Jensen Huang, its founder and CEO, after allegations of a second affair have surfaced, per WSJ.
The board is preparing to meet as soon as today to determine his future.
关于通胀，我没看到有任何一个经济学家预测可以连续正确，又看到有人在聊美联储加息是个错误，没意义。就像沃什说的，与其去预测一些你无法预测的东西，不如看历史数据趋势。趋势就是过去3个月通胀数据都无法接受，所以12月加息已成定局，但不会加50个基点。
战争如果结束，油价下跌，那确实大方向可以帮助通胀。但大方向上我仍然只看美国银行财报里的消费增速，只要保持在5%，不要期待通胀会明显下来。
5%是个广义消费数据，可以有很多组合，比如4%的真实增速和1%的通胀，或者2%的真实增速+3%的通胀（新常态）。K型经济的形成因为股市太好，头部消费强劲，股市如果回调，那可以从财富效应和PCE里的财富管理数据直接影响通胀，但AI可能也没了。经济过热，加息的目的本来就是抑制增长，而非让其进入衰退。
2027会是智能体的一年，就像2026的Coding。
现在很多的价值股估值都很贵，必需品消费和医疗板块都是几年历史新高的估值，避险情绪非常极端。但最终，我们还得看谁的EPS增速高，ROIC高。
Sundar Pichai: In three years, today's AI will look as primitive as a flip phone. The progress we're about to see will surprise people.”
“We are in that rare moment in technology. The curve is so steep.”
“People will look back three years from now and say, ‘You mean you couldn't do those things?’”
“We are all laying the foundation for agents, but agents will be very common.”
“People will be relying on them to get things done in a more seamless way.”
“Any content can go from any modality to any modality. We've shown hints of it with Nano Banana, Veo, and Omni.”
“It doesn't matter how the content was originally created. People can consume it in many different forms.”
类似这样的风险，我认为10-15%的折扣价，至于事件的演变，没有内幕消息真的很难预测。我个人倾向于不会被请“辞职”，皮衣甚至可以说掌握了美国国运的人，当然这件事情上我不认为我有任何的Edge，只是单纯地从利弊出发，而非是非出发。牵涉到政治的事情没有是非，只有权利和利益交换。
这种市场情绪面下出这事
$NVDA CEO JENSEN HUANG’S DRAFT MEMO TO EMPLOYEES, OBTAINED BY AXIOS.
“I owe my family and all of you an apology.”
“I was unfaithful to my wife. My actions hurt her and our children. There is no excuse for what I did. I am deeply sorry.”
“Leading NVIDIA is the privilege of my life.”
“I am fully committed to NVIDIA and will work to earn back your confidence.”
Regarding the national security investigation:
“I support the investigation and will cooperate fully.”
“My family bears no responsibility for my choices. I do. Please give them privacy.”
NVIDIA’s board has launched an independent investigation into reports that Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence effort.
The board says it currently has no reason to believe U.S. national security or NVIDIA’s secrets were compromised.
智能体飞轮，INS有数据，Muse负责提醒，推荐。
邮箱有哪些邮件还没回复的
信用卡有哪些Perks还没用的
存下来的餐馆在搞活动
未来眼镜加入Muse，开车路过提醒餐馆就在附近
On and on，个人智能体已经来了，唯一能阻挡这脚步的是算力成本，和小扎前期愿意砸多少成本下去，以我对他的了解: All in，不会有剩余算力去卖，即使短期很赚钱
👇你不要投资，总有其他州会接纳这笔投资，没见过蠢到不要投资的。只要条件提得不是太过分，互相妥协。额外成本的上升和整个数据中心的成本比，小一个级别，早上线一个月全在了
德州要冻结数据中心审批，SpaceX 换了个州破局。
11 月 4 日晚，SpaceX 在亚利桑那州 Cochise 县的居民说明会上正式确认：以 Tombstone Resources 名义申请的 747 英亩数据中心园区就是它自己的项目，最多 9 栋机房，满负荷用电 6 GW。现场去了约 275 位居民。
它给地方开的价码很具体：自掏 36 亿美元升级电网，当地电力合作社用户的电费降 10% 到 40%；1000 个长期岗位；每年房产税 3400 万到 1.03 亿美元；用干冷却，满负荷年用水量只相当于 20 到 30 户人家。项目分 4 期，一期约 1.5 GW，2027 年 3 月起接施工用电。6 GW 差不多是 SemiAnalysis 测算的 SpaceX 2027 年算力目标的一半。
对照很清楚：德州那边新州长还没上任，冻结的话已经放出来了；SpaceX 在亚利桑那的打法，是先把电网和电费摆上桌，让地方从审批者变成受益者。这一关过不过，12 月 9 日看结果。
#SpaceX #数据中心 #AI
华尔街上也是一片狼藉
Yesterday’s hedge fund rumors are confirmed by WSJ and Bloomberg, and the details hurt.
Per Morgan Stanley, October saw the largest active reduction of positions by stock pickers in over a decade. More than 40% of them were flat or down YTD, while the indexes were still positive. And of the 46 major funds tracked by Bloomberg, more than half finished October in the red.
The damage:
- Lone Pine: +40% in H1, now -7.5% YTD. Caught on both sides, on its AI longs and on its shorts against companies threatened by AI, which went up.
- VARA: -33% in October
- Arini: -26% YTD, forced to dump over $2B of assets in a week under margin call pressure. Rivals are now shorting its biggest positions.
- Tiger Global: -8.5% in October, back to flat YTD
- Kirkoswald: worst month in its history
- Millennium: -2.3% in October, with several internal pods reportedly shutdown
- Engineers Gate: shutting most of its human-plus-quant strategy, keeping only 5 PMs. The head of the unit is leaving.
- Samlyn: dropping everything except financials. Other sector heads and senior analysts are out.
- Walleye: head of equities and a large part of the long/short teams let go, and capital going back to clients
Thursday made it worse. Per Goldman Sachs, tech funds lost more than 4% in one session, wiping out YTD gains that had reached 24% before the summer. The Nasdaq lost $2.5T, to the point that Dan Loeb (Third Point) joked on X: “Hug your hedge fund manager.”
The problem is that everyone holds the same names: funds, retail and leveraged ETFs. Hedges stop working, and every sale drags down everyone else’s positions. $SOXL lost 39% in one session, and volatility-control funds could still liquidate up to $135B of futures.
But forced selling always stops at some point, and the rebounds that follow can be violent. On Wall Street, an old rule says to wait three sessions after a shock before deciding anything.
$QQQ $SOXX
高盛：电话被打炸了！美股血流成河 xitter.twitterapi.xyz/i/broadcasts/2EmrPllKy…
