Truth Is Freedom

THE 15% BAND Look at this chart. 59 races. Senate and governor. States ordered from reddest to bluest in 2024. The solid lines are 2024. The dashed lines are 2026. The shaded bands are what moved. One formula fits all of it: Republican 2026 = 0.85 × Trump 2024 Democrat 2026 = Harris 2024 + 0.15 × Trump 2024 For every 1,000 Trump points, 850 stayed Republican. 150 landed on the Democratic side. The numbers: Senate: Republicans kept ~85% of Trump’s share Governor: ~86% Variation explained: 88% What makes it strange: It didn’t matter how red the state was. Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts: same 15% (p = 0.69). The Democratic gain was sized by Trump’s vote, not Harris’s. The Harris part is zero. The 0.85 beat both standard election-swing models in every set of races. Drop any single state and the multiplier stays between 0.846 and 0.853. Why seats flipped: At 0.85, any state where Trump got under about 58.5% falls below 50%. Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, North Carolina: all under that line. All flipped. What this means: Midterms are messy. This one isn’t. Two sets of races, different candidates, different campaigns, and the same 15% decrease almost everywhere. A pattern this even demands answers at the ballot level: paper ballot hand counts, poll-book check-ins against votes counted, and voter files showing who actually turned out. The numbers raise the question. The ballots can answer it.

Well, it’s been six days since I dropped that graph. I wonder how much longer it will be before we see a model on prior midterms proving this is “normal”. 🤔

Why 15%? It would put ten Republican Senate seats in play. 6 were lost 3 held 1 is still pending.

Last night I said I know what this is. Now I can call it what it is. The 15% Diversion. The attacks are coming, but just like the truth, the math is solid. Here are answers to some of the false criticisms we may all be hearing.

When I first posted the 15% Band, I compared Republicans vs. Democrats, so it covered 30 Senate races. Now that results are nearly final, I updated it to include every vote: Republicans, Democrats, independents, third parties, everyone, in all 35 Senate races. Then I ran a new regression analysis. Once again, the number came back .85. 34 of 35 Senate Republicans fell below President Trump's 2024 share. Red states and blue states lost the same proportion. In some states the lost votes went to Democrats. In others, like Idaho, Nebraska and Montana, they went to independents. Different opponents, different places for the votes to go, and the Republican share still landed at about 85%. This isn't just an average. An average can hide states scattered all over the place. A regression tests whether one rule fits every state. Here, it does: Trump's 2024 share × .85 lands close to the Republican result state after state after state, and explains 87% of the differences between them (R² = .87). Five nights ago, I was pretty sure. Tonight, I know. This is real. It deserves an answer.

When asking questions becomes a problem, you’ve identified the problem.

A single formula, fixed before any votes were cast, lined up with the results in county after county so closely that the outcome was basically known in advance.

Normally in a midterm, the national mood pushes everyone in one direction, but individual candidates can swim against it. A popular incumbent or a hometown favorite can run well ahead of their party. In 2026, nobody did. No Republican Senate candidate ran meaningfully ahead of Trump’s share. Strong candidates, weak candidates, incumbents, open seats, red states, blue states, they all landed in a narrow band at or below him. Whatever was driving the vote was national, and strong enough to wash out the usual local differences.

Updated sign test. I added four more midterms (1994–2006), so the baseline now covers every midterm since 1994. I also added a beta-binomial test. How unusual was the 2026 near-sweep? Binomial: 1 in 5,510 Beta-binomial: 1 in 1,670

In the 15% band, the deviations aren’t noise. Each one measures the shift in proportional voter turnout. Under the model, the 0.85 sets the baseline, and real voter turnout determines where each county lands. Above the line: when a result is higher than the projection, Republican turnout was proportionally higher than in 2024. Below the line: when a result is lower than the projection, Democratic turnout was proportionally higher than in 2024. There is no fluctuation if the proportional turnout in 2026 matches 2024.

A sign test of the Senate races If 2026 had been a typical midterm, a near-sweep like this would happen about once in 3,800 tries.

To everyone asking who is behind this account: I am an independent citizen with financial and legal experience. I am not a career politician or a corporate pollster. When I noticed a strange consistency in the election data, I analyzed it and posted what I discovered. I have proudly supported President Trump since the day he came down the escalator. To know that a pattern I shared is of interest to him is a humbling and surreal honor.

KANSAS: THE 15% GAP, COUNTY BY COUNTY The 15% gap held across the Senate map. Here’s Kansas, all 105 counties. 94% of counties fell within range: 99 of the 105. Below the formula: Seward, Ford, Finney. Meatpacking counties in southwest Kansas. Above the formula: Wallace, Sheridan, Jewell. Three of the reddest ranch counties in the state, about 90% Trump. What the formula tells us: If a county is below the formula, the proportion of Democrats to Republicans who voted was higher than in 2024. If it’s above the formula, the proportion of Republicans to Democrats was higher than in 2024. Why this matters: This isn’t a statewide average hiding the normal county to county variation underneath. The same 15% shows up in counties with hundreds of voters and counties with hundreds of thousands of voters. The few that break from it break in predictable directions. One rule works at the state level and the county level. That’s not what scattered voter decisions usually look like.

Testing the 15% - 2026 Senate Races The chart showed Republicans holding about 85% of Trump’s 2024 share across the Senate map. This sheet tests that pattern race by race. Method: Each projection is Trump’s 2024 share multiplied by 0.85, compared against the reported 2026 Republican share. A race counts as within range if it lands inside two standard deviations of the projection. Result: 29 of the 30 head-to-head races fall within range. The single outlier is Maine. The full table includes every state’s 2024 baseline, projection, reported result, and margin of difference.

TEXAS WHAT HAPPENED HERE? A third of the Republican vote, gone. Everywhere. Republicans: down in all 254 counties. Trump 2024: 6,393,597 Paxton 2026: 4,249,763 Democrats: UP in 232 of 254 counties. In a midterm. Harris 2024: 4,835,250 Talarico 2026: 5,445,156 Midterms don’t add Democratic votes in Texas. This one added more than 600,000, in nine out of ten counties.

KANSAS WHAT HAPPENED HERE? A third of the Republican vote, gone. Everywhere. Republicans: down in all 105 counties. Trump 2024: 758,802 Marshall 2026: 504,950 Democrats: UP in 84 of 105 counties. In a midterm. Harris 2024: 544,853 Hamilton 2026: 559,853 Midterms don’t add Democratic votes in Kansas. This one did, in four out of five counties.

36 states held governor races. Of the 32 with county maps, 29 moved toward Democrats. In 15 states, every single county shifted blue: 1,304 of 1,304. What are the odds? 🤔