When I first posted the 15% Band, I compared Republicans vs. Democrats, so it covered 30 Senate races.
Now that results are nearly final, I updated it to include every vote: Republicans, Democrats, independents, third parties, everyone, in all 35 Senate races. Then I ran a new regression analysis. Once again, the number came back .85.
34 of 35 Senate Republicans fell below President Trump's 2024 share. Red states and blue states lost the same proportion.
In some states the lost votes went to Democrats. In others, like Idaho, Nebraska and Montana, they went to independents. Different opponents, different places for the votes to go, and the Republican share still landed at about 85%.
This isn't just an average. An average can hide states scattered all over the place. A regression tests whether one rule fits every state.
Here, it does: Trump's 2024 share × .85 lands close to the Republican result state after state after state, and explains 87% of the differences between them (R² = .87).
Five nights ago, I was pretty sure. Tonight, I know.
This is real. It deserves an answer.
Nov 11, 2026 · 4:25 AM UTC
Ran the numbers myself. He's right. 34 of 35 Senate Rs landed at about 85% of Trump's 2024 share, red states and blue states alike. In 2018 the spread was twice as wide. This year it's a flat line.
Check it yourself, it's all public:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_U…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_U…
Now watch the "it's just a midterm wave" crowd come running. Same geniuses who can't balance a checkbook suddenly experts in regression. They scream "our democracy" every five minutes and still can't figure out we're a Republic. Look it up, it's in the Pledge you stopped saying. A Republic means the people hold the government accountable, not the other way around. If it's clean, open the books. If you won't, we already know why.
I went over the 15% band live earlier tonight on my show with your other data and everyone was shocked.
Great work finding this equation.
Are you noticing no one wants to mention it?
The math checks out. That’s a huge numerical oddity…
I have come up with similar ones…my frustration is that, with the variegated voting systems in the US, how could the votes have been manipulated to get these eerily similar results?
I am still working on that…
Beautiful work, I've heard about it from the big guy but didn't really look into it until now. Well done, ty.
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Truth is free : you are absolutely over the target, " the obvious target" excellent work. But if it was as obvious as that do you not understand that DJT possibly orchestrated the steel 🤔
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Who will actually look at the ballots and compare to the digital results???
Who will stand up for us??
Is ANYONE contacting you about this? Any elected officials? Auditors?
And if not, why not??
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