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Model 3 오너 / Tesla, Palantir Investor. FSD, Optimus, Robotaxi, Starship 관한 정보 공유.

Joined January 2012
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이 트윗으로 #Jenson을 아주 보내 버리네.
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좌파였다가 우파였다가, 이제 다시 좌파? #Palantir CEO Alex Karp. 이전에는 바이든, 해리스 지지. 이후 트럼프와 공화당에도 거액 후원. 그리고 민주당의 중간선거 승리 이후 등장한 한마디. "I'm a Democrat. I've been a Democrat my whole life." 2028년에는 민주당 후보를 후원할 수도 있다고? 놀라운 Karp의 정치적 태도 전환, 존경스럽다.
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테슬라 #FSD(Supervised)/Tesla Assisted Driving(TAD), 핀란드 승인! 11월 10일, 핀란드가 네덜란드 RDW의 임시 형식 승인을 인정. 유럽에서 국가별 승인국은 총 11개국. 현재 승인국의 EU 인구 비중은 약 15.5%. EU 승인 조건 : 15개국이상, EU 인구의 65% 이상 찬성. 독일, 이탈리아 도입에 적극적, 프랑스는 주저, 스페인은 EU가 승인하면 한다는 입장. 금년말 12월 TCMV 회의가 관건. Tesla Assisted Driving Approved in Finland — 11th European Country basenor.com/blogs/news/tesla…
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내가 5년이나 넘게 테슬라를 들고 있는 가장 큰 이유.
Elon Musk just revealed how personally involved he is in building SpaceXSI's massive Colossus infrastructure in Memphis He's living in a small Airstream parked right next to the power plant, walking the entire construction site up to FIVE TIMES A DAY, and doing actual engineering and construction work himself And Elon joked about his living arrangements: “Airstreams are actually pretty nice... I kind of like my little Airstream” And the scale of what's being built is staggering • Over 1 GIGAWATT of on-site power generation already producing electricity • Capacity targeted to reach 1.5–2 GIGAWATTS • Power infrastructure built in approximately ONE YEAR instead of the typical FIVE YEARS • Elon personally walks the power plant and every building across the Memphis cluster multiple times daily And he's not just supervising the work He's personally involved in: • Pulling enormous electrical power cables, some as thick as an anaconda • Installing fiber-optic cabling • Working on electrical switches • Developing power plant management software And the reason behind this approach is even more important Elon wants to understand the physical challenges engineers and construction workers face, experience those difficulties himself and identify ways to make the entire process better He's not sitting in an office waiting for updates He's walking the construction site, asking questions, solving problems and getting his hands dirty alongside the people building it This is the kind of leadership that builds companies capable of doing things the rest of the industry considers impossible And it's happening at one of the largest SI infrastructure projects on Earth
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TopTen retweeted
ELON MUSK: “The stock market is a very strange thing. It's kind of like Warren Buffett's sort of analogy, is the stock market's like having someone stand at the edge of your house and yell prices to buy or sell your house every day. And sometimes they take their meds and sometimes they don't. So sometimes the person yelling the price of your house is having a good day and sometimes it's having a bad day. But it's still the same house. You're like, it's literally still the same house. So Tesla stock goes up and it goes down, but actually it's still the same company. It's just people's perception of the future. I guess it's just very emotional.”
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노무라, 정말 #KOSPI 10,000 간다고? <출처 : ebc.com/kr/forex/318050.html>
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Cybertruck AND Cybercab 엘론 머스크는 2027년 중반경 텍사스 기가팩토리에서 Cybertruck 생산을 축소하고 Cybercab 생산을 확대할 계획이라고 발표. Cybertruck은 미래의 자동차라며 세상을 놀라게 했지만, 불과 몇년만에 시장은Cybertruck을 원하지 않았다. $2bn 가량 투입해 연간 12.5만 대 생산을 꿈꾸던 공장은 3년동안 7만대 판매라는 부진때문에 Cybercab을 위한 공간을 내줘야 할 처지. 모양은 화려했지만 사업성은 냉정했다. 그나마 다행은 시장에 맞춰 신속하게 정책을 변경하는 것은 테슬라의 강점 분명하다.
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폭락, 여러번 경험했어도 여전히 적응하기 어렵네요. 힘 냅시다.
The midterm election delivered a considerably stronger Democratic showing than the market was anticipating. Democrats captured both the House and Senate, with gains extending well beyond the traditional battlegrounds and into states and districts that had been reliably Republican. The result is a genuine blue wave and, from the market's perspective, the important issue this morning isn't politics -- it's surprise. Markets can discount good news and bad news; what they have a more difficult time discounting is an outcome that wasn't fully anticipated. Historically, that reduction in legislative flexibility has not necessarily been a negative for stocks. Markets generally prefer predictability, and divided government can make sweeping changes in taxes, spending and regulation more difficult to enact. Fidelity's research makes an important point: historically, the market's post-election behavior has been driven less by which political party won than by the reduction in uncertainty once the election was over. As Fidelity puts it, the environment doesn't necessarily become completely clear - it simply becomes “less unclear.” And this is where the historical picture becomes particularly interesting. Since 1938, the S&P 500 has been higher 95% of the time during the 12 months following a midterm election, with an average gain of approximately 14%. Fidelity's longer-term work on the presidential cycle also shows the post-midterm year as historically the strongest portion of the four-year election cycle. Schwab finds a similar pattern: since 1974, the S&P 500 has averaged a 5.7% gain in the three months following midterms and 12.4% over the following six months. That historical tendency is reinforced by seasonality. We have now entered what has traditionally been the strongest six-month period of the year, November through April. Since 1945, the S&P 500 has averaged roughly 7% during that six-month stretch versus just over 2% from May through October. November itself has historically been one of the market's strongest months, and the November through January period has also been particularly favorable So we now have several potentially favorable historical forces beginning to converge: the election is behind us, political uncertainty has been reduced, Washington is moving toward divided government, we're entering the historically strongest part of the presidential cycle, and we're simultaneously moving into one of the strongest seasonal periods of the year. That does not mean the market has to go straight up from here. In fact, given the magnitude of the election surprise, some additional volatility would not be unusual. The market still has to digest what the Democratic Congress could mean for taxes, regulation, AI infrastructure, energy policy and other areas. More importantly, the election doesn't make the other risks disappear. The 10-year Treasury yield remains near 5%, oil remains above $100, inflation and Fed policy remain significant issues, and questions surrounding AI valuations and capital spending are still very much in play. Those fundamental forces ultimately matter more than the election itself. What matters now is whether the tape begins to confirm the historical script. I want to see the major indexes absorb the election shock and hold support, but even more important, I want to see improvement beneath the surface: broader participation, expanding leadership, more stocks reclaiming key moving averages, fewer new lows, more quality setups and, ultimately, breakouts that can gain traction and hold their gains. Encouragingly, breadth has already improved, with nearly two-thirds of S&P 500 stocks moving above their 10-week averages after starting the month at only about 20%. The bottom line is that the election result may have been more dramatic than investors expected, and the market's initial volatility reflects that surprise. But the election also removes a major uncertainty, creates divided government and places us directly into a historically favorable post-midterm and seasonal window. If the market needs to shake out further in the near term, I would not automatically interpret that as bearish. It could be part of the process of discounting the new political reality and establishing a more durable low. Of course, the historical and seasonal backdrop doesn't guarantee the outcome. Stock setups will be our main focus. In the meantime, our shorts act as a hedge, and as always, our longs are protected with stops. minervini.com
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SpaceX와 Qualcomm SpaceX가 Qualcomm과 함께 미국 전역에 수만 개의 지상 기지국(셀 타워)을 설치하고, 이를 우주 위성과 결합해 하이브리드 5G 이동통신 네트워크를 27년부터 구축할 계획. 왜 기지국을 직접 설치하나? 기존 통신사(Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile)들이 자사 네트워크 이용을 거절. 지상 이동통신망 구축에는 800억 달러 이상의 비용들지만 독자적 통신사업자을 위해 투자. 옵티머스, 자율주행차량 등 미래 AI 기기들의 연결 인프라를 확보. 주파수 확보는? 연방통신위원회(FCC)는 SpaceX의 EchoStar 주파수 취득을 승인 그러나 3대 통신사 대비 주파수 부족 우려 존재. 기존 통신사와 경쟁은? 기존 통신사와 가격 경쟁 불가피 주파수 간섭에 대한 FCC 이의 제기 등 갈등 우려 그래서 나의 생각은? 기존 통신사업자와 치열한 경쟁 예상된다 그럼에도 불구하고 일론은 통신 인프라를 확보하려는 의지가 있다. 왜냐면 옵티머스, 로보택시, AI센터 등이 통신인프라에 연결된다면 어마무시할 것이다.
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2010년 부터 중간선거 이후 1년동안 주가변화 비교. - 분석대상 : TSLA, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, S&P500. - 분석기간 : 중간선거일로 부터 1년. - Source : Yahoo Finance 일별 수정종가. 결론 : 중간선거 결과 보다 기업 경쟁력이 더 중요.
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본문에 AMZN으로 표기했으나 차트는 INTC가 포함되어 있습니다. 정정합니다.
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미 중간선거와 테슬라, 팔란티어 민주당이 상하원 모두 장악한다면, 운송노조, 소비자 안전에 대한 강조 때문에 SELF DRIVE Act 법안이 표류 또는 지연될 가능성이 높아지겠지. 정부 계약 관련 청문회 및 소환 가능성도 높아 지겠고. 기존계약 취소는 어렵지만 정부를 상대로한 신규 계약은 지금보다는 제한이 많겠지. 알렉스 카프는 친민주 성향이라 일론 머스크보다 낫겠지만. 빅테크 감시, 개인정보보호 등 관련 규제가 부담스러울 수 있겟고. 또 정부 매출 비중이 커(54%) 의회 감시가 좀 부담스럽겠지. 상원은 공화당, 하원은 민주당 장악한다면, 규제법안 제,개정은 양원이 합의해야 하고, 트럼프가 거부권 행사하겠다고 공공연하게 선포했으니 당분간 어렵겠지. 입법 제도화는 막히고 행정적 완화는 유지되는 과도기적 혼란이 발생할 수도. 하지만 하원 상임위에서 청문회 소환장 발부가 가능해 규제와 압박이 높아지겠지.
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이른 아침 달리기. 퇴직이후 시작한 달리기. 달리면 머릿속 잡다한 생각들이 정리 될 것 같다는 기대 때문이다. 신체의 변화을 통해 마음의 변화를 꾀하고자 한다.
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이른 아침 고개 숙이고 운동장으로 털털 걸어가는 내게... "행복한 하루 되세요" 야쿠르트 아주머니가 전동카트로 코너를 돌며 힘차게 인사한다. 고개 뻣뻣한 날 인사하게 만든다. "네~네, 고맙습니다 행복하세요." 말 한마디 의미가 새롭다.
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두려워 해야 할 것들 이게 정말 거부 하기 어려운 유혹거든 돼지는 살찌는 것을 두려워 해야 해. 나무는 주변 보다 두드러 지는 것을 두려워 해야 해. 사람은 유명해 지는 것을 정말로 두려워 해야 해.
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전기가 발명되고 대중들에게 확산되는데 40년. 인터넷은 7년. 스마트폰은 약 6년. FSD는? 완성도, 정책에 따라 다르겠지만 4년 정도 걸리지 않을까?
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확신하고 5년전 매수한 테슬라는 기대에 미치지 못하고 확신없이 1년전 얼떨결에 산 팔란티어는 기대를 넘어 로켓처럼 날아가네. 확신이 파멸이 될 수 있겠다. 인생은 운7기3인가 보다.
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