Simplifying the world of semiconductor investing in the age of AI. Part of the @semianalysis_ gang. all views are personal
Joined September 2021
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Fabricated Knowledge retweeted
Sad about Jensen. Shakespearean. But as de Gaulle said, “The graveyards are filled with indispensable men.”
Fabricated Knowledge retweeted
Jensen Huang matters to Nvidia because he can take technologies his engineers believe are possible and turn them into products the whole company commits resources to, takes risks on, and has to deliver. That's why the supply chain gets such strong order visibility and is willing to keep up with aggressive spec upgrades. It also forces competitors to follow, which drives technology upgrades and supply chain investment across the entire AI industry.
Between the two, deciding on aggressive spec upgrades and making them happen is the harder part, compared with giving the supply chain order visibility. Huang doesn't need to be the person at Nvidia who knows the most about new technologies like HVDC, CPO/NPO, or CCL/PTFE. His value is that he weighs strategy, organization, technology, and supply chain all at once, then makes the call quickly and puts resources behind it.
Based on what's public so far, it looks hard for Huang to come out of this unscathed. If so, the practical move may be to gradually reduce Nvidia's reliance on Huang's personal decision-making while preparing a succession plan. Along the way, two things are worth watching to gauge where AI technology and investment are heading: whether Nvidia can keep developing new products and technologies as efficiently as before, and how competitors respond. Supply chain research will be an important basis for that judgment.
Fabricated Knowledge retweeted
We came up with the name "Perplexity Computer" based on @dylan522p's blog post describing coding agents as a new kind of computer. Glad to see it be useful to him and SemiAnalysis.
Fabricated Knowledge retweeted
And/or have a shareholder vote after the investigation is complete.
Difficult to argue this is in the best interest of shareholders with the stock down 8% after hours on the WSJ report about the board preparing to oust him.
A much better solution for NVIDIA’s board, shareholders, customers and employees (and America) would to (a) finish their investigation and (b) make @JensenHuang the chairman if it comes to that.
Fabricated Knowledge retweeted
A man who pioneered parallel processing cannot be expected to run a single thread
Fabricated Knowledge retweeted
During a Q&A with Samsung executives, Sam Altman addressed concerns about a bubble in the neocloud sector, saying, “There has been some double counting of demand.”
Asked whether demand for AI, memory chips, and data centers could level off or grow more slowly over the next five to ten years, he replied, “There are ups and downs in the short term.”
“OpenAI and Anthropic are the only two companies really driving substantial growth in demand, so we could see a supply shock and a period of turbulence,” Altman said.
Fabricated Knowledge retweeted
Introducing Claude Fable 5.2 and Claude Mythos 5.2, designed to tackle the most daunting technical challenges.
They’re capable collaborators on ambitious projects in many fields, and show improvements in areas like coding, reasoning, and vision.
Fabricated Knowledge retweeted
"Over the last year, QQQ has been in a correction drawdown (red line) more often than it's been in a rally (blue line)."
@bespokeinvest
Fabricated Knowledge retweeted
I'm looking for someone to help our team cover the consumer side of AI markets. If you know anyone who's passionate on writing, researching, and modeling what's going on in consumer AI and legacy internet business models, please have them apply!
semianalysis.com/semianalysi…
Fabricated Knowledge retweeted
TL;DR:
Every single possible data center ban passed.
Fabricated Knowledge retweeted
Update on the shale shitco complex analog
Officially at a more worrying stage!!!!!
Shale was a straight up Industrial Revolution. We spammed it with as much debt as possible such that the entire industry literally died, gave us dirt cheap natural gas and it paired with ZIRP to create an epic bull post GFC
If you use this analog to consider when AI will roll up into a fireball of death, we are basically at the point where the very first big debt issuances are happening.
Need a whole bunch of huge companies to have 5+ tranches of this shit to fund capex before you should even be worried
Fabricated Knowledge retweeted
Pro tips for Election Day while you wait for polls to close:
1) Stop touching grass. Don’t go for a walk. Don’t exercise. Go home. Keep scrolling Twitter all day. The next tweet you see down your feed will definitely tell you what’s going to happen before anyone else knows.
2) Trust anonymous accounts. They are the most reliable sources of information today.
3) Overreact to everything. If you see someone say there are long lines at a Republican-heavy precinct, assume it’s a red wave nationally. If you see someone say a precinct is empty in a rural area, confidently declare that Democrats will win a supermajority in the Senate.
4) Anecdotes are to be trusted and extrapolated. Especially if they are from anonymous accounts (see #2), and especially if they are about how busy precincts are (see #3). Bonus points if they have a hammer and sickle or an American flag in their bio.
5) Don’t drink water. The whole “drink eight cups a day” adage is just Big Water™️ industry trying to make money off of you gullible sheep. Drink only coffee and energy drinks. Maybe a Four Loko circa 2010 if you can find one.
6) Look at the clock a lot. Contrary to popular opinion, time does go faster when you are watching the time.
Fabricated Knowledge retweeted
Official apology to Google from me, they cooked with Carbon.
It's spikier in terms of domains and capabilities, but it's really good in a few areas. – at San Francisco, CA
Fabricated Knowledge retweeted
The U.S. midterm elections next week are expected to redefine how much data centers will cost and how long they take to build in the U.S., though the impact will not be felt for several years.
Restrictions are coming regardless of who wins but the impact is greater for 2028.
Check out my latest note with @mayabarkin for @SemiAnalysis_
newsletter.semianalysis.com/…
