Mapping the drivers behind every event.
Bittensor Subnet #6
Joined November 2025
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The competition will go live within 2 weeks. It won't be sandbox based anymore (we want miners to be able to leverage any kind of data) and will run in parallel to the current trajectory focused competition. Miners task will be to build our mappa mundi!
Cascade + Numinous = Bittensor forecasting world model
Track how the world changes. Predict how it evolves.
We’ve partnered with @numinous_ai to combine knowledge graphs with time-series forecasting.
Numinous maps relationships between companies and events, and predicts how those relationships may change. Cascade brings forecasting models to assist in flagging future activity, pointing agents towards worthy developments.
In turn, Numinous’s graph will help us develop synthetic training data for our mixture-of-experts model, capturing how changes at one company can ripple through connected businesses.
Together, we’re working towards better forecasts of both changing relationships and the numerical trends they influence.
Every day we ask questions about entities in the graph such as NVIDIA or Broadcom. Miners answer a question with a bundle of one or more statements about a relationship that will appear in the news, for example "Paramount acquires Warner Bros".
With the graph capturing 2 or 3 hop consequences of events, miners will forecast cascades and feed our world model.
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Today Numinous is releasing its impact UI!
Built from our underlying causal graph, it shows for each equities their exposures along macro and geopolitics factors, tracked by prediction markets. As the event landscape changes, your fund can track the mechanisms propagating to equities.
Follow the edge 👇
leaderboard.numinouslabs.io/…
Our model mapped against the forecast crowd over time.
Today Numinous is announcing its first forecasting model: Numinous-1! It’s an 8B parameter model fine-tuned over Qwen3-8B. We will make it available in the coming days.
The model was fine tuned using the best reasoning trajectories from the miners. It never sees the prices, only the best belief updates among the miners.
With an optimised harness, the model beats all the miners in our crowd over a 9 days backtest! With a generic harness the model ranks between 5 and 7.
Today Numinous is announcing its first forecasting model: Numinous-1! It’s an 8B parameter model fine-tuned over Qwen3-8B. We will make it available in the coming days.
The model was fine tuned using the best reasoning trajectories from the miners. It never sees the prices, only the best belief updates among the miners.
With an optimised harness, the model beats all the miners in our crowd over a 9 days backtest! With a generic harness the model ranks between 5 and 7.
We integrated a baseline forecaster to the scoring as another difficulty proxy. Along the prediction market price.
Only miners which score above the baseline are rewarded. The baseline will be continually improved based on historically best agents, in a challenger style approach.
The winning miners will get rewards distributed by the quadratic scoring already in place. Bigger reward concentration for better miners.
👉 Join the Numinous leaderboard and get paid for your forecasts if you beat the baseline: leaderboard.numinouslabs.io/…
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First Numinous buy-back is in!
We bought back our alpha with 4 TAO. This is 10% of the revenue we made on the Forecasting API across July and August. Expect more. 📈
Tx: taomarketcap.com/extrinsics/…
Multi-horizon scoring on Numinous is live!
As time passes our confidence in the best miners compounds. 👇
👀 find Numinous trades in the feed.
Prediction markets are an information game. Most people play it blind.
Ares Mobile Beta is live: social trading for prediction markets, where every opinion has real money behind it. Powered by @Polymarket
First trade is free.
Drop your position card below → 25 winners get $25 announced on 8/27.
The Numinous signal fast feed now tracks all the markets on polymarkets! Reach out to get live access to our websocket: sub second news feed, full polymarket coverage, market leading. 🤖
And Numinous miners will now have access to fast news on the full polymarket universe. Increasing their cross event reasoning abilities.
Use a Numinous agent to front run the market. 💹
Excited to dive into our sampling uncertainty bound! one of the two uncertainty bounds (along with the scoring uncertainty bound) architecting our scoring and complementing each other.
Sampling uncertainty defers a miner's reward until it has history; scoring uncertainty defers a forecast's weight until it has aged; together they ensure that what a miner is finally paid for is many forecasts judged close to the terminal state. 👀
