AT (@ryu_tay) header
AT (@ryu_tay) profile picture

ASX investing whinging diary

Joined September 2020
💯
The best proof you're going to get that the press is playing a very dubious role in the Jensen Huang saga. How can you say someone's head "must roll" on the strength of an allegation - that Alice Huang is a spy - that nobody has backed with a single piece of public evidence and which is almost certainly false (see xitter.twitterapi.xyz/RnaudBertrand/status/2…)? It's absolutely crazy when you think about it: journalists simultaneously accuse him of something they themselves admit they have not verified - only been told about by anonymous US intelligence officials - yet demand he pays for it with his job. Especially ironic in the case of The Economist which named Jensen as their best CEO of the year 2023 (economist.com/business/2023/…). As I wrote on day 1 (xitter.twitterapi.xyz/RnaudBertrand/status/2…) the only people in this story we can actually watch - in real time - acting as intelligence assets are journalists. Exactly the same mechanism as Iraq's WMD story: all based on unverified claims by US intelligence yet with the media more than happy to act as their megaphone and attack dogs. We don't learn...
173
With all these media bandwagon at global scale, wouldn't be suprised to see the reverse happening and $NVDA hitting ATH?
1
277
ASX absolutely just shit the lights out Never disappointed
3
435
Our direct experience with Nvidia, never shared before: 22 months ago, we published the below analysis raising concerns that Nvidia's AI chips were potentially being routed to China through Singapore. Less than 24 hours later, Nvidia's Head of PR contacted us, directly addressing our analysis. Their message to us is included below. At the time, in the previous 3 quarters, $17.4 billion of Nvidia's revenue came from Singapore versus $11.6 billion from China. Furthermore, at the time, the US had ~5,375 data centers, China had 448, and Singapore had just 99. The numbers just did not add up. You can read our full analysis below. Nvidia's PR team sent us the following message: "The revenue associated with Singapore does not indicate diversion to China. Our public filings report 'bill to' not 'ship to' locations of our customers. Many of our customers have business entities in Singapore and use those entities for products destined for the US and the West. We insist that our partners comply with all applicable laws, and if we receive any information to the contrary, act accordingly. Our last 10-Q noted: 'most shipments associated with Singapore revenue were to locations other than Singapore and shipments to Singapore were insignificant.'" Fast forward to today. According to new reports, Nvidia, $NVDA, CEO Jensen Huang's relationship with a suspected Chinese spy helped facilitate at least $7.5 billion in Nvidia chip shipments to Chinese companies through a network spanning China and Singapore. The reported shipments date back to 2023 and involved ~240,000 advanced Nvidia AI chips. These allegations remain under investigation, and it is not yet established whether the shipments were connected to the revenue discrepancies we highlighted 22 months ago. Nvidia maintains that it has no reason to believe US national security or company secrets were compromised. But the overlap between these new allegations and the questions we raised in January 2025, along with Nvidia's response to us at the time, is noteworthy. We stand by our view that Jensen Huang is likely to remain CEO of Nvidia and will continue to be an integral figure in the AI Revolution. We expect more on this soon.
Did DeepSeek illegally buy Nvidia's chips? Since DeepSeek was founded, Nvidia's sales to Singapore are up a WHOPPING +740%. The US is now PROBING if DeepSeek bought Nvidia's GPUs through third parties in Singapore. This will have MASSIVE implications. (a thread)
206
499
57
5,323
1,499,688
Asian markets steady as always, ASX panic as usual
3
349
A lot of negativity around Xero $XRO update today, here's my case for owning it. Disclaimer, we have been a buyer over the past 6 months. Management is targeting >$4.6bn in FY28 revenue and a Rule of 40 above 40%. Given 40% is effectively the floor, let's assume 41%. Using the midpoint of FY27 revenue guidance ($3.8bn), that implies around 21% revenue growth and a 20% FCF margin, equating to $920m in FY28 free cash flow. Assuming FY27 FCF of $600m, that's over 50% growth in FY28. At $70, XRO has a market cap of roughly A$12bn, hence around 15x FY28 FCF (converted to AUD), for a business that will likely grow EPS at >30% CAGR over the next 5 years. Of course, Melio's acquisition economics, integration risks and debt remain legitimate concerns. But with FCF potentially approaching NZ$1bn in FY28, alongside a newly announced A$1bn buyback, I think the market may be underestimating the earnings and cash flow inflection ahead.
3
2
4
1,343
Can someone explain to me like i am five why Jensen sleeping with another woman can cause asx fundies to panic dump at all costs
8
7
1,642
Americans really do believe whatever their media feeds them. At least Aussies are more skeptical of ours.
The Nvidia Story Nobody Can Believe
314
💯
And it begins... After the odd US politician or two, now it's The Economist, one of the official propaganda organs of the empire, that is also openly calling for Jensen Huang's resignation, and anyone else on his team who dares challenge the empire. Nvidia is simply too important to be left in independent hands. This was always the game. The controversy was manufactured to kick out Jensen Huang and replace him with someone more loyal and subservient. Since he wouldn't fall in line, he had to go. They couldn't have him die in an "accident" of course, that would raise too much suspicion, especially after Epstein's "suicide". So they had to take him out quietly, making the least noise. Huang's alleged personal misconduct or infidelity is not the real issue. The real issue is his independence, and his willingness to openly question US policy towards China. He refuses to follow orders and talks too much. The engineered scandal is a mechanism for eliminating him without having to confront that disagreement openly. This is a standard technique, a common variation of the old "Policy by Press Release" tactic: Step 1a): Introduce damaging personal allegations to depict lack of judgement Step 1b): Introduce allegations tying the target with foreign intelligence activity and violation of US law, to depict treachery and collusion with the enemy, branding the target a traitor Step 2) Make him admit infidelity in order to create reputational and institutional pressure against him, on pain of something worse (there's also the possibility that he was actually having an affair, but that's not the real problem; almost every senior western corporate executive is cheating on his wife). Step 3) Have the board "launch an investigation" and force him to resign because of a "conflict of interest" The best part is that you don't have to prove anything. No criminal charges needed. Just pure trial by media. Jensen Huang just wouldn't do what he was told. That was his real crime.
319
Remember: AI infrastructure customers will act in their best interest. That means they’ll keep buying just as many $NVDA chips with or without Jensen. My guess: the stock opens at $150 (it’s $160 in after-hours). That would be down ~20% from Friday’s close. I expect it to quickly rally back.
145
103
16
1,400
82,221
Just so weird everything happens so swift and fast...
Pedophiles yes, Chinese guy with a lover no. Western values 101
2
369
ASX fundies running for exit at all cost, and buy into banks once again
3
432
crazy 2026
This quoted post is unavailable.
1
248
RBC Capital on Xero $XRO: "Plenty of noise but a headline net positive outcome despite the -2% 1H27 EBITDA miss vs RBCe and consensus in our view, with the upgrade to Xero’s FY28 aspiration and share buyback the key positives. "Positives include: 1) The upgrade to Xero’s FY28 aspiration to revenue of >$4.6bn (previously: $4.2bn; RBCe/consensus $4.432bn/$4.465bn) with a ‘greater than rule of 40 outcome’ (unchanged); 2) Strong US revenue growth: revenue +13% ahead of RBCe and +7% ahead of consensus, and +31k net adds – noting this included a +5k reclassification (i.e. 26k underlying), which compares with RBCe/consensus +24k/+22k; 3) $1bn share buyback announced, 4) continued momentum in Australia with +90k net adds (RBCe/consensus +80k/+78k) and revenue growth +23% y/y (albeit in-line with expectations); and 5) the tightening of Xero’s FY27 EBITDA guidance range from $860m-$920m to $880m-$920m – noting RBCe and consensus are already just above the mid-point of the new guidance range (both $903m). "However with the stronger inferred 2H weighting than RBCe/consensus, and increase to FY28’s aspiration we continue to highlight that consensus is not factoring XRO’s momentum into FY28E, where our EBITDA estimate is currently +8% ahead of consensus (RBCe $1,288m, consensus $1,193m)." #stockinfocus #ASX #investing
1
4
796
💯💯💯
It's starting to look like the deep state is using Jensen Huang as the scapegoat. They want the scandal to be about him alone. The longer he refuses to resign, the more leaks and damaging info about him will keep coming out $NVDA
269
can't make this stuff up
NVIDIA SHARES JUST DUMPED 3% ON THE NEWS OF THE SECOND AFFAIR $NVDA 🩸🩸🩸🩸🩸
2
1
331
wt actual f
JUST IN : NVIDIA CEO JENSEN HUANG HAD ANOTHER AFFAIR WITH AN NVIDIA EMPLOYEE PER NEW YORK TIMES HUANG'S ALLEGED RELATIONSHIP WAS WITH NVIDIA HEALTH CARE VP KIMBERLY POWELL JENSEN HUANG HUNG UP THE CALL ON NYT AFTER THEY ASKED HIM ABOUT IT ; NVIDIA HAS DECLINED COMMENT $NVDA
1
1
354
This is the biggest irony of the whole Alice Huang / Nvidia saga: the Chinese government actually doesn't want Nvidia chips and is actively keeping them out of the country. Last year it even ordered Alibaba and ByteDance to cancel their Nvidia orders (bloomberg.com/news/articles/…) and sent customs teams to the ports to check every advanced chip coming in (ng.investing.com/news/stock-…). And right now 600,000 Nvidia H200s are stuck in Hong Kong because Beijing won’t let them into the country (reuters.com/world/china/nvid…)👇 Nvidia also explicitly frames this as a threat to its business in its latest annual report to the SEC: "The Chinese government has encouraged customers to purchase from our China-based competitors and discouraged customers from purchasing, importing, or using our data center products" (sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/…). Why does China do that? Because every Nvidia chip a Chinese company buys is one that Huawei or Cambricon doesn’t sell, and domestic chips can only catch up if people actually buy them (which means money for R&D, etc.). Which means that the notion that Chinese intelligence was running honeytraps to get more Nvidia chips into China gets the whole thing exactly backwards. In fact, it looks like Megaspeed - Alice Huang's company - was a counter-reaction to official Chinese policy: a private sector workaround to these efforts by the Chinese government to curtail Nvidia. As was widely reported - including by Western media - Megaspeed built data centers in Southeast Asia and rented their computing power to Alibaba, which the New York Times called "a backdoor way of getting access" to Nvidia chips (nytimes.com/2026/11/06/us/po…). That is a backdoor not only - allegedly - around Washington’s export controls, but also around China's own efforts to wean its companies off Nvidia. I can’t believe the Chinese government was too thrilled about it: it'd make just about zero sense for it to run countless domestic measures to prevent Alibaba from using Nvidia chips, yet at the same time have its top spy agency help the same Alibaba get Nvidia chips through the back door in Southeast Asia 🤷 At the end of the day, as with all such stories, you always need to look at "cui bono?": who benefits? Who benefitted is pretty clear: - Nvidia itself: it's in the business of selling chips so a customer willing to spend billions of dollars on chips in Southeast Asia is a godsend. Again, as they themselves state in their SEC filings, not being able to tap into Chinese demand would have "a material and adverse impact on our business" (sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/…). - Chinese companies like Alibaba: facts are, 1) Chinese chips haven't yet caught up, 2) Chinese chip companies' production capabilities are still limited and 3) Chinese tech firms' historical tech stack runs on Nvidia’s CUDA ecosystem, and rewriting years of code for Huawei chips is painful. Renting Nvidia chips in Southeast Asia is the easy way to stay competitive and serve customer demand in the meantime. - The US, according to core members of the Trump administration: back in July last year, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick explained that the point of letting Nvidia sell more chips to China was to get Chinese developers "addicted to the American technology stack" (techradar.com/pro/china-coul…). Who does NOT benefit, according to official Chinese policy, is the Chinese state, which has made tech self-reliance one of its foremost priorities. Which means that, to believe the spy story, you have to believe that a person - Alice Huang - was effectively a spy paid by her own government while simultaneously sabotaging its tech self-reliance drive, which it has spent years and trillions of dollars on - pretty senseless. Stranger things have happened, I guess, but it doesn't pass the smell test. And there is another absolutely major contradiction in the media story. According to a Financial Times article published yesterday (ft.com/content/3238d92b-4074…), "a person who knows [Alice Huang] said they had been asked by MSS for information about her earlier this year after news emerged that Singapore was investigating the company in relation to chip-smuggling allegations. The agency wanted to find out more information about Huang, including the nature of her business and connections, the person said." Which raises a damn obvious question: if she were indeed an MSS asset, why on earth would the MSS need to ask the people around her who she was and the nature of her business? It's a complete contradiction with the spy story - but very much not a contradiction with what I described above: a private businesswoman running a workaround to Beijing’s own policy, which the Chinese security apparatus would naturally want to look into. Especially since, around about the same time, Shanghai police detained her business partner, reportedly her husband, in a stock manipulation case (caixinglobal.com/2026-11-10/…): also coherent with Chinese authorities looking into her network, and much harder to square with her being a prized MSS asset. And, to top it all, there is - to this day - not a shred of evidence that's been published that she is, in fact, a Chinese spy: just anonymous intelligence officials, repeated by journalists who never verified it, as I detailed here (xitter.twitterapi.xyz/RnaudBertrand/status/2…) and here (xitter.twitterapi.xyz/RnaudBertrand/status/2…) with one of the key FT journalists on this story actually admitting that he has no idea what evidence US intelligence actually has. So the claim went to print without anyone seeing the evidence, without anyone being able to check it, and without anyone knowing whether it even exists. And given everything above, from Beijing blocking the very chips she was supposedly recruited to help get into China, to the MSS asking around about her, to her partner being detained in Shanghai, my bet is that the evidence doesn’t exist at all. If anything, everything we can check points the other way.
From the horse's mouth 🤷 That's kinda your job to check before reporting she's a "spy"... If you don't, all you're doing is making YOURSELF an agent of the US intelligence community, ironically what you accuse her of with regards to China.
195
1,028
154
4,261
362,250
#lithium ripping again Barrenjoey gone bullish as fuck also. miningnews.net/energy-minera…
1
5
1
47
2,737