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California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist) profile picture

California State Weather | The Southwest Four |

@Modelologist

I am a Believer in Christ | California State Weather | CA + NV/UT/AZ | CA always first

 California
youtube.com/@MODELOLOGIST
Joined April 2026
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Photo by California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)Photo by California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)Photo by California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)Photo by California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)Photo by California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)Photo by California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)Photo by California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)Photo by California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)Photo by California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)Photo by California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)
Totals may shift, but there is a signal for significant rain and snow. A few areas, such as Southern California, still show some disagreement, but we’ll monitor updates closely as Friday approaches. You can see here there showing rain across for arizona. #cawx #utwx #nvwx #azwx
Image from California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)
Image from California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)
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Take this with a grain of salt, but there is potential for significant rain accumulation from these systems. By Friday and into the weekend, Northern California could see 1–3" of rain, especially along the coast and some inland areas, while Central California may receive 0.2–1.8"+. Southern California has a chance for showers and storms on Friday, though forecasts vary, with certain spots potentially seeing 0.15–2". Mountainous areas are likely to receive higher amounts. This pattern will continue for several days with additional storm systems bringing both rain and snow. Snowfall is expected over the Sierras and other higher northern elevations, with totals potentially exceeding 1 ft, not including accumulation from the coming days into the weekend and early next week. I’ll keep you updated. Across our region, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona are showing lighter activity, though a few areas may receive slightly more. Arizona on the other hand shows agreement on more than what we see in this image. #cawx #utwx #nvwx #azwx
Image from California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)
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California State Weather | The Southwest Four | retweeted
NWS Hanford (@NWSHanford) profile picture
NWS Hanford
@NWSHanford9h
The first of a series of storms slides in Friday through Saturday. Here are the probabilities of 8 and 12 inches of snow for the Sierra Nevada. #CAWx #Fresno #Bakersfield
The two images shows the probability of snow amounts in the first storm this weekend. China Peak has a 25 percent chance of 8 inches, Tioga Pass has a 78 percent chance of 12 inches of snow, and Mammoth Peak has a 53 percent chance of 12 inches of snow.

ALT The two images shows the probability of snow amounts in the first storm this weekend. China Peak has a 25 percent chance of 8 inches, Tioga Pass has a 78 percent chance of 12 inches of snow, and Mammoth Peak has a 53 percent chance of 12 inches of snow.

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California State Weather | The Southwest Four | retweeted
NWS San Diego (@NWSSanDiego) profile picture
NWS San Diego
@NWSSanDiego10h
These maps are % chance of an area seeing a 0.25" of rain or more in an area during Fri morning/afternoon (left) and Fri PM to Sat PM (right). Showers Fri morning will mostly impact the coast, with more widespread rain moving through the region late Friday into Saturday morning.
Image from NWS San Diego (@NWSSanDiego)
Image from NWS San Diego (@NWSSanDiego)
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California State Weather | The Southwest Four | retweeted
NWS Eureka (@NWSEureka) profile picture
NWS Eureka
@NWSEureka11h
A powerful swell will bring 25 to 35 foot breaking waves to northwest California beaches starting Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Powerful waves can rush far up beaches, wash over rocks & jetties, and erode at coastal bluffs. Stay back from the ocean this weekend.
Graphic showing a large breaking wave on the left and details on the right.

ALT Graphic showing a large breaking wave on the left and details on the right.

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California State Weather | The Southwest Four | retweeted
NWS Sacramento (@NWSSacramento) profile picture
NWS Sacramento
@NWSSacramento12h
Seasonably warm high temperatures continue through Thursday, before noticeably cooler temperatures arrive Friday through the weekend as weather systems move through the region. #CAwx
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Seeing that the pattern continues to favor rain, it confirms that my forecasts have been accurate. #cawx #utwx #nvwx #azwx
California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist) profile pictureCalifornia State Weather | The Southwest Four |
@ModelologistNov 3
We remain dry for now besides northern and central portions of CA experiencing rain, and once the current low-pressure system moves out, a drier pattern will dominate this week as a ridge of high pressure steers most systems away. Looking ahead to possibly the second week, the ridge may break down, allowing several storm systems to move in, potentially bringing back-to-back precipitation events. This could mark the beginning of a wetter period. As I mentioned earlier, we are gradually seeing these patterns start to unfold. #cawx #utwx #azwx #nvwx
Image from California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)
Image from California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)
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California State Weather | The Southwest Four | retweeted
NWS Bay Area 🌉 (@NWSBayArea) profile picture
NWS Bay Area 🌉
@NWSBayArea13h
🚨UPDATE: The Beach Hazard Statement has been adjusted to start now and will continue through 6 PM Friday. From 6 PM Friday through 4 AM Sunday a High Surf Warning will be in effect for Pacific Coast beaches. Never turn your back on the ocean. #CAwx
A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect now through 6 PM Friday when it will be replaced with a High Surf Warning from 6 PM Friday to 4 AM Sunday. Breaking waves of 15 to 20 feet are expected for the duration of the Beach Hazards Statement.

ALT A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect now through 6 PM Friday when it will be replaced with a High Surf Warning from 6 PM Friday to 4 AM Sunday. Breaking waves of 15 to 20 feet are expected for the duration of the Beach Hazards Statement.

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California State Weather | The Southwest Four | retweeted
NWS Las Vegas (@NWSVegas) profile picture
NWS Las Vegas
@NWSVegas18h
Heads up! A pattern change is on the way! Unsettled conditions are expected over the weekend lasting into next week. Details are still being worked out, but a return to cooler conditions with periodic gusty winds and precip chances can be expected. #cawx #nvwx #azwx
Graphic highlights a pattern change expected with above normal precipitation favored across much of the Western US. Uncertainties are described which include unknown timing details and potential for snow in the higher elevations.

ALT Graphic highlights a pattern change expected with above normal precipitation favored across much of the Western US. Uncertainties are described which include unknown timing details and potential for snow in the higher elevations.

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Wednesday's Highs and Tonight's Lows #cawx #utwx #azwx #nvwx
Image from California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)
Image from California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)
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California State Weather | The Southwest Four | retweeted
California Governor's Office of Emergency Services (@Cal_OES) profile picture
California Governor's Office of Emergency Services
@Cal_OESNov 10
.@CaltransHQ continues to prepare California’s roadways to help keep you safe and give you peace of mind when traveling. Remember to download the QuickMap app before your next trip or commute to stay up to date on road conditions.
Caltrans HQ (@CaltransHQ) profile pictureCaltrans HQ
@CaltransHQNov 10
Caltrans is taking concrete actions to protect vital infrastructure ahead of a potentially historic El Niño. Before, during and after severe weather strikes our state, Caltrans crews will be there to keep Californians moving safely #elninoprep
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Today's highs and tonight's lows, take a moment to check the color scale and identify your local temperatures. It’s a useful skill to understand the weather in your area. #cawx #utwx #nvwx #azwx
Image from California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)
Image from California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)
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California State Weather | The Southwest Four | retweeted
NWS Salt Lake City (@NWSSaltLakeCity) profile picture
NWS Salt Lake City
@NWSSaltLakeCityNov 10
Temperatures across Utah and southwest Wyoming will again run about 5°F above seasonal normals with mostly clear and dry conditions. That's above average in terms of temperature, but is it above average weather for you? Let us know. #utwx #wywx
An information graphic from the National Weather Service Salt Lake City, UT titled "WE’RE ABOVE AVERAGE!" with the subheadline "Highs Averaging 5°F Above Seasonal Normals Once Again". The background shows a light blue sky with a cartoon illustration of a smiling sun wearing a red and yellow winter scarf. Key Forecast Message:Another dry, mild day is ahead for Utah and southwest Wyoming, with highs around 5°F above normal. Similar conditions continue through Friday before a storm system potentially brings changes this weekend. Tuesday Afternoon Highs Map (November 10, 2026):Saint George / Zion NP: 69°F / 74°F Salt Lake City / Tooele: 59°F / 57°F Ogden / Brigham City / Logan: 57°F / 58°F / 58°F Provo / Nephi / Delta: 61°F / 60°F / 58°F Richfield / Cedar City / Milford: 61°F / 61°F / 60°F Evanston / Randolph: 54°F / 55°F Price / Vernal / Duchesne: 59°F / 56°F / 57°F Moab / Bullfrog / Kanab: 59°F / 63°F / 66°F Footer: Issued 11/10/2026 5:48 AM MST. NWS Salt Lake City,

ALT An information graphic from the National Weather Service Salt Lake City, UT titled "WE’RE ABOVE AVERAGE!" with the subheadline "Highs Averaging 5°F Above Seasonal Normals Once Again". The background shows a light blue sky with a cartoon illustration of a smiling sun wearing a red and yellow winter scarf. Key Forecast Message:Another dry, mild day is ahead for Utah and southwest Wyoming, with highs around 5°F above normal. Similar conditions continue through Friday before a storm system potentially brings changes this weekend. Tuesday Afternoon Highs Map (November 10, 2026):Saint George / Zion NP: 69°F / 74°F Salt Lake City / Tooele: 59°F / 57°F Ogden / Brigham City / Logan: 57°F / 58°F / 58°F Provo / Nephi / Delta: 61°F / 60°F / 58°F Richfield / Cedar City / Milford: 61°F / 61°F / 60°F Evanston / Randolph: 54°F / 55°F Price / Vernal / Duchesne: 59°F / 56°F / 57°F Moab / Bullfrog / Kanab: 59°F / 63°F / 66°F Footer: Issued 11/10/2026 5:48 AM MST. NWS Salt Lake City,

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Today's fire risk is high and will escalate by Friday, until some locations receive showers. Stay weather aware, as Fire Weather Watches may be issued due to windy and dry conditions, although incoming rain could mitigate some of the dryness. #cawx #nvwx #utwx #azwx
Image from California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)
Image from California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)
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You all remember our discussion on wave conditions for this weekend. The forecast remains steady, with very large waves expected. Starting Thursday, initial effects may become noticeable, but by Friday through the weekend, waves could exceed 25 ft along Northern to Central California, could they reach the coast? it's possible. Further south, near the Channel Islands, waves may reach 15-20 ft. The Southern Bight may also see some activity, though less intense. Swells are expected from the WNW, possibly NW, accompanied by windy conditions with gusts of 20-30 mph, potentially stronger over the waters. #cawx #california
Image from California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)
California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist) profile pictureCalifornia State Weather | The Southwest Four |
@ModelologistNov 1
By the end of next weekend, a powerful Alaskan low will be positioned to our northwest, tightening the pressure gradient and bringing strong winds over the coastal waters. This will build seas to 10-12 ft offshore, with potential for even larger swells. I will keep you updated. #cawx #california
Image from California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)
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Where you guys want some rain? #cawx #nvwx #azwx #utwx
67%California
5%Nevada
10%Utah
19%Arizona
21 votes • Final results
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Towards the end of the week (13th–14th), there is a potential for fronts to move through, bringing not only rain but also a notable chance of snowfall. While it is still early for specifics, current data suggests that Northern to Central California may experience the bulk of this activity. Southern California could also see some precipitation due to southeasterly motion. A deep trough will guide moisture across the region, potentially affecting Nevada, Utah, and Arizona as well. Updates will follow. #cawx #utwx #nvwx #azwx
Image from California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)
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The same system will be bringing in gusty conditions as well to the coast and portions inland. #cawx #california
Image from California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)
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Isolated to scattered showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in northwest California today. #cawx #california
Image from California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)
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Today's Afternoon Highs and Tonight's Lows #cawx #utwx #nvwx #azwx
Image from California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)
Image from California State Weather | The Southwest Four | (@Modelologist)
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