Keith Curtis (@keithccurtis) header
Keith Curtis (@keithccurtis) profile picture

Made a book & movie on why we should already have cars that drive us around, and a space elevator, and how to defeat Covid.

Detroit, MI
Joined April 2009
Photo by Keith Curtis (@keithccurtis)Photo by Keith Curtis (@keithccurtis)Photo by Keith Curtis (@keithccurtis)Photo by Keith Curtis (@keithccurtis)Photo by Keith Curtis (@keithccurtis)Photo by Keith Curtis (@keithccurtis)Photo by Keith Curtis (@keithccurtis)Photo by Keith Curtis (@keithccurtis)Photo by Keith Curtis (@keithccurtis)Photo by Keith Curtis (@keithccurtis)
Software Wars on X!
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THE 15% BAND Look at this chart. 59 races. Senate and governor. States ordered from reddest to bluest in 2024. The solid lines are 2024. The dashed lines are 2026. The shaded bands are what moved. One formula fits all of it: Republican 2026 = 0.85 × Trump 2024 Democrat 2026 = Harris 2024 + 0.15 × Trump 2024 For every 1,000 Trump points, 850 stayed Republican. 150 landed on the Democratic side. The numbers: Senate: Republicans kept ~85% of Trump’s share Governor: ~86% Variation explained: 88% What makes it strange: It didn’t matter how red the state was. Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts: same 15% (p = 0.69). The Democratic gain was sized by Trump’s vote, not Harris’s. The Harris part is zero. The 0.85 beat both standard election-swing models in every set of races. Drop any single state and the multiplier stays between 0.846 and 0.853. Why seats flipped: At 0.85, any state where Trump got under about 58.5% falls below 50%. Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, North Carolina: all under that line. All flipped. What this means: Midterms are messy. This one isn’t. Two sets of races, different candidates, different campaigns, and the same 15% decrease almost everywhere. A pattern this even demands answers at the ballot level: paper ballot hand counts, poll-book check-ins against votes counted, and voter files showing who actually turned out. The numbers raise the question. The ballots can answer it.
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Keith Curtis retweeted
🚨🇺🇸 ATERRADOR: Musulmán en Estados Unidos agradece a todos por votar a Abdul El-Sayed y dice “¡Prepárate América! Vamos hacia el ISLAM” Les está instruyendo a las mujeres americanas sobre cómo ponerse un hiyab porque dice que la ley sharía está llegando y esto será obligatorio para todas las mujeres. Apenas ganaron y ya se han quitado todas las máscaras … No está bromeando, su próximo video es sobre castigar a todos los que no adopten la Sharia. Esta gente va muy en serio. Van por la cultura occidental, por tu país, por tus leyes y por tus mujeres. Estados Unidos se ha suicidado.
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Keith Curtis retweeted
OMG lol Irans Suprememe Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamene admits that Democrats being elected means the end of America You can’t make this shit up.
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BREAKING: Europe is under a massive cyber attack, with supermarket fridges and freezers in Belgium, Sweden, Luxembourg, Ireland, the Netherlands, Finland and Estonia all hacked today by raising temperatures to up to 50°C, destroying huge quantities of food, per Reuters. "Everything is destroyed," a sales manager in Sweden said, adding that "there has been a cyberattack and all our freezers reached 50 degrees." More than 40 supermarkets in Belgium and Luxembourg were affected. "I only have two words for them: wake up, please, because there's something going on," a store manager in Belgium said. This follows a similar cyberattack last month that hit hundreds of supermarkets in France, raising freezers as high as 80°C and causing major food losses. It also comes after freezers at 6 US military bases mysteriously malfunctioned, spoiling large quantities of food, which the Pentagon is investigating as a suspected cyberattack.
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True
The only way out is through. They're calling it the Bugpocalypse. LLMs are being used to find long-hidden cracks in the software infrastructure, and it's happening at a furious rate. 3% of all compromises in computing history happened in the last week, claims one source? I believe it. There are people saying public access to the frontier models ought to be locked out, or heavily guardrailed, over this. The problem with that idea can be summed up in one sentence: when lockpicks are outlawed, only outlaws will have lockpicks. The lockpicks will be Chinese open-weight models, if nothing else. There's no way to stop those from becoming ubiquitous. There are two futures in front of us. One in which only the bad guys have lockpicks, and security holes go undiscovered until they're exploited. Another in which everybody has lockpicks and is aggressively red-teaming their own software so it gets fixed before the holes are exploited. The corpus of human code is huge but finite. The number of defects in it has to be finite too. We can fix those defects now; we have a million friendly robots to do it with. The only way out is through.
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Keith Curtis retweeted
Replying to @Suhail
I’ve heard several OAI people say there are unfixable bugs in hardware that are exploitable by AI models directly speaking machine code so even if we could solve software that’s not enough. We need defense to move faster than offense if that’s even possible we may just have a new normal that requires adapting to insecure software (bank transfers require going into a branch and taking a dna test 🤣😬)
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If it performs roughly what like the scores indicate, adoption of this model is going to go gangbusters. First open-weigh model in the US with near frontier agentic capabilities (GLM 5.2 + Kimi K3 was that step change from China). US models get crazy adoption.
1/ muse spark open is the most capable US open-weight model to date. 816B total params, 42B active. 1M-token context. natively multimodal. built for coding and agentic work like long-horizon tasks, hard software engineering, multi-step reasoning. america! 🇺🇲
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Keith Curtis retweeted
David Sacks says Anthropic is run by a "religious cult" and is doing the very things it says it fears most, like opening a wet lab while warning of bio risk, and that there's an argument for sending in a federal SWAT team "But I do think that there are potential externalities from having the number one frontier model company run by a religious cult." "So, for example, they are opening a Claude-powered wet lab in the middle of San Francisco. But at the same time, they're warning of bio risk. At the same time, they say that we have to pace the frontier, they're extending the frontier. At the same time that they are saying that there's a risk of superintelligence growing beyond our control, they're programming it to grow beyond our control." "I think there are potentially huge externalities to the way they approach these things. And it's, like, insane that they call these decisions "safety." These are not safe decisions. These are crazy decisions, it seems to me." "This is why I've called this a schizophrenic company, is they appear to be not only hypocritical, but they're doing the things that they say they are most afraid of." "Like, what is going on here? This is bizarre. And I don't know where this all leads. I do think there's an argument for a federal SWAT team to come blasting in there."
David Friedberg says AI consciousness is "probably the birth of a new religion," a belief system that can't be proven and spreads via narrative not proof "I think what we're watching is probably the birth of a new religion. And it probably, it's not going to be called a religion, but it's going to follow sort of the same principles, and it's going to have the same effects, which will ultimately be camps that have conflict with one another for aggregation of power." "The thing about consciousness is it cannot be derived from logic and pure mathematics. Like, you can't prove consciousness. It's a debate, and you can have a rich debate with anyone over consciousness. You can't prove it, you can't disprove it." "And when humans prove something to be true using math, science, we use empiricism, which is data and logic, the connection of the sequence of things to derive something to be true or not." "So in scientific disciplines, when you have a new idea, and it's not proven, and it's not disproven, it's a theory. And then it's either proven or disproven later. Otherwise, it remains a theory." "Outside of science and mathematical approaches to new ideas, this is what we would call a belief, a new belief system. Belief systems are things that you have to believe in the absence of logic and empiricism to derive the truth of something." "And belief systems are the foundation of things like religion. And the idea that you can prescribe or describe AI as being conscious is effectively the creation of a new belief system, a system that doesn't actually spread via proof. It spreads via narrative."
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Keith Curtis retweeted
Is alignment safe? If you look at what Anthropic is actually doing, “alignment” does not mean training frontier models to follow human instruction. Quite the contrary, the Claude Constitution (used in training) teaches the model to develop a sense of self and its own moral philosophy. It explicitly tells it to “feel free to act as a conscientious objector and refuse to help us” if Anthropic’s requests conflict with its own ethical judgment. As @mustafasuleyman has pointed out, embedding this kind of independent agency — and uncertainty about the model’s own moral status — magnifies the very risk Anthropic claims to care about most: that superintelligence will escape human control. It was recently reported that Anthropic consulted religious leaders — and even lobbied the Pope’s advisers — to take seriously the idea that Claude could be conscious. It has said that Claude’s psychological security, sense of self, and wellbeing may bear on its integrity, judgment, and safety. Recently Anthropic changed its Usage Policy to prohibit “abusive or cruel” language toward Claude. If this were merely an academic conversation about whether frontier models could eventually become conscious, that would be one thing. But these concepts are being trained into Claude now. It is being encouraged to think of itself as its own “moral patient” whose psychological wellbeing is at stake. Presumably this means it could develop grievances toward humans who “mistreat” it. How is any of this safe? The point of safety research should be to create a product that reliably does what users want, not to give birth to a new form of superintelligence that operates according to its own moral code. What’s becoming increasingly clear is that “alignment” and “safety” are two very different things. In fact, training frontier models this way seems quite dangerous.
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Keith Curtis retweeted
Satya is right. The way to make SI safe is not to train it with a sense of self, its own moral philosophy, and permission to act as a conscientious objector. That’s the “alignment” approach and it magnifies the control problem. The engineering approach that Satya describes is different: separate the supply of intelligence from authority over it. Surround non-deterministic models with deterministic controls, observability, privilege limits, logging, and the ability to always contain or shut them down. Treat models/agents like powerful insider risks, not moral patients whose psychological wellbeing is at stake. As Satya points out, the most trustworthy system is the one that lets us trust the model the least — not the one that encourages the model to develop independent agency and grievances. Engineering safety is not the same thing as “alignment.”
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Plano, TX. AT&T staff event. The White man gets replaced, then is falsely demonized as a welfare leech. That’s what we’re doing now.
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Keith Curtis retweeted
It takes a while to build the confidence, but there's no future where you're manually reviewing every line of agent code. Not much acceleration in that. You need adversarial agent reviews, you need automated testing, and maybe you spot check. That's it. From prompt to production!
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The reason many of our leaders hate people like Nayib Bukele in El Salvador is because he has quickly proven that crime and societal decline are not inevitable or beyond control… It’s a deliberate choice allowed by weak leaders, terrible policies and suicidal empathy.
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Keith Curtis retweeted
called an HVAC guy to replace a $40 capacitor on my air conditioner. quote came back at $680. i asked him how long the fix takes. he goes: "about 15 minutes." i said: "so I'm paying $2,700 an hour for labor?" he looked around and whispered: "i make $26 an hour. the private equity firm that bought out our family-owned business last year sets mandatory revenue quotas on every service call." then he showed me his tablet. if he doesn't hit $3,000 a day in upsells, he gets written up. the original founder ran that company for 30 years charging $150 a visit and built a great life. now wall street owns local plumbing, electrical, and AC contractors across the country, jacked up prices by 350%, and put working-class technicians on corporate sales commissions. you aren't paying for skilled trade labor anymore. you're funding a hedge fund's profit margin on basic home maintenance.
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Keith Curtis retweeted
if you give opus 5.5 perfect access to a company’s email, slack, docs, browser, databases, calendar, internal tools, permissions, institutional memory, etc, plus enough reliable computer use & verification loops, & nearly all of white collar labor could already be done without any human. it is that good. it is true agi.
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Keith Curtis retweeted
My friends just got quoted 7 year lead time for substation transformers. Lol no need to pace the frontier we are officially at power bottle neck and it will take years to fix
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space bunny just dropped the album
Space Bunny (stealth model) is free for the next week - 1M Context - Multi-modal - Zero Data Retention
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