Timothy B. Lee (@binarybits) header
Timothy B. Lee (@binarybits) profile picture

Reporting on AI and the future of the economy. CS masters degree from Princeton. Newsletter: https://xitter.twitterapi.xyz/t.co/MAwkvzSSr3 Podcast: https://xitter.twitterapi.xyz/t.co/aJSErfcE8Y

Washington, DC
Joined March 2008
Jensen has been credibly accused of sleeping with a Chinese spy and also sleeping with a subordinate at his company. You don't need to postulate any kind of larger conspiracy or hidden agenda to explain why he resigned.
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You don't think it's likely that the leaker is someone who wanted to tighten chip export controls (and someone who in some sense is a China hawk)? That seems overwhelmingly likely to me. What other plausible agenda is there?
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That does seem pretty likely yes. I guess if you are fanatically opposed to China hawkery then that could seem like a sinister motive. :-)
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Replying to @binarybits
But there must be a reason the story about the spy part was leaked to the New York Times in the first place, right? Isn't there usually an agenda behind leaks?
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Yes, most journalistic scoops happen because someone with an agenda leaks secret information to a reporter. I don't think we know who leaked the information or why, and I can think of many non-sinister ways it could have happened.
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Either one of these could have been survivable, but the first affair made him enough of a political liability that the Board wasn't going to cut him any slack after the second report.
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"Walking distance" is technically true but very misleading. It's not like it's just a few blocks over.
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It's about 10 blocks. A ~20 minute trip.
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i'm severely updating down my opinion of anyone who does not support jensen in this episode this is such an obvious and transparent authoritarian act by the US government that anyone who supports it is imo permanently discredited
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Put me on the list of permanently discredited people. 🙋‍♂️
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Timothy B. Lee retweeted
Very glad to see the NYT editorial board endorse BAAJA, the bipartisan permitting reform bill. Key points from the article: 1. "Democrats who call climate change an emergency should not defend a permitting system too slow to build the clean energy that would address it." 2. "[BAAJA] would make it easier to build solar energy farms, battery storage, power lines and more. As a result, it would reduce energy prices. The status quo is expensive, dirty and unstable. The country needs to build a lot of big, new things to make its future cheaper and cleaner." 3. "The bill’s Democratic skeptics are making a mistake. President Trump would almost certainly veto a follow-up bill next year. And time matters, especially for the climate. Congress should pass this bill now. It can then return next year and pass other bills that would do even more good." 4. "Today, it typically takes between 5 and 13 years to build a long-distance power line, like the one that transports clean hydropower from Quebec to New England. That line took about a decade to finish, and opened in January. It has enough capacity to meet about one-fifth of Massachusetts’s electricity demand, and it’s projected to save consumers $50 million a year." 5. "A more robust, cleaner grid would make American energy more reliable and less dependent on hostile foreign nations. No country can embargo the wind." 6. "[BAAJA] would force data center operators to pay the full costs of the electricity they use, protecting the average electricity consumer." 7. "On net, the bill would cut greenhouse gas emissions from power plants by as much as 18 percent by 2040. It would do so in part by nearly tripling the construction of high-voltage transmission lines." 8. "Anyone who cares about climate change should cheer this bill. And a party that just won an election on affordability should not pass up a chance to start delivering immediately."
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Timothy B. Lee retweeted
In April the District permitted twenty-five (25) homes. There is just no way the city is going to build 72,000 units. There's no road there. If the city were permitting 500 units a month it would still take 12 years and that is 25x the number we're doing. City of Fantasy
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Timothy B. Lee retweeted
Jensen moving this from “human advantage” into “AI advantage” at warp speed!
People want CEOs with physical human bodies, peer relationships to other humans, the ability to make binding commitments that transcend their current job, etc. AI models are never going to have these things.
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Jensen moving this from “human advantage” into “AI advantage” at warp speed!
People want CEOs with physical human bodies, peer relationships to other humans, the ability to make binding commitments that transcend their current job, etc. AI models are never going to have these things.
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hahaha
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Timothy B. Lee retweeted
📢 We need more orgs that take AI’s transformative potential seriously *and* take downstream bottlenecks seriously. We have just launched STABL, and hope to lead by example. Read our launch essay below and check us out at stabl.ai. The three of us have long felt that society’s responses to advanced AI are unproductively polarized. So we’ve decided to do something about it. Our work will have four pillars: Recursive Self Improvement, risks and resilience, steering AI’s economic impacts, and sectoral and professional adaptation. We will bring our distinctive methods and approach to each of these workstreams. Our underlying worldview avoids the extremes that dominate the discourse, so building a movement and ecosystem around this work won’t be easy. But that is the task we have set ourselves and we are excited to try. The good news is that there are many others who share our views. The next step is to come together, better articulate our vision and agenda for research and action, and amplify each others’ efforts.
Steering AI's societal impact requires taking both AI development and downstream bottlenecks seriously. Today @RishiBommasani @random_walker and I are starting a new non-profit: STABL @stabl_ai to guide societal adaptation and resilience to advanced AI.
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Tesla is making solid progress with Robotaxi but I've gotta say the last 18 months have been a total vindication for the "Tesla isn't doing anything special and will have to do the same city-by-city slog as Waymo" thesis.
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Well...they aren't there yet...are they. There isn't really a long way to go to catch up since Waymo is at 4000. Funny how some people give credit to Waymo's aspirations while totally discounting Tesla's. 😂
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I 100% expect Tesla to grow faster than Waymo (in percentage terms at least) over the next year. I'm just not sure if they'll grow fast enough to erase the current gap in a year.
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Replying to @binarybits
That's nice, so around 4-5000.
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Waymo is around 4,000 now. I believe they are shooting for 8k by December and 20k by the end of 2027. Tesla is expanding faster than I expected a month ago but they still have a long way to go to catch up to Waymo.
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The AI safety community seems to have updated massively on relatively little incremental evidence, largely as a result of a reputation-based opinion cascade.
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A 2x acceleration is a big update, no?
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What do you think your estimate would have been the day before you saw the METR report?
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Replying to @binarybits
36 Days for Texas for your post. xitter.twitterapi.xyz/texasavtracker/status/…
NEW: Tesla Robotaxi just added 20 Tesla Model Ys to its fleet. The Texas fleet now stands at 1302 vehicles. Live tracker: texasavtracker.com/tesla Tracker powered by @EVject
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Good for them but I meant nationally.
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Tesla Robotaxi is reaching escape velocity in Texas 🚀 The Austin expansion + San Antonio launch grew Texas coverage 59% overnight 🤯 📈 ~751 ➡️ ~1,194 sq mi That's now ~4x Waymo's Texas coverage, despite Tesla launching 3-8 months after Waymo And the Cybercab line isn't even fully ramped  🏭 Still early innings, and they’re pulling ahead of the market leader in Texas 🚕
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Do you think Tesla is providing thorough coverage of those full service areas?
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Replying to @binarybits
Did you try asking AI? I've heard they've improved themselves repeatedly lately.
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Replying to @binarybits
I'm happy to chat with you about this @binarybits
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Are you around the office today?
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Replying to @binarybits
Is the question more about the concept or the reasons some people thing it is coming?
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I have many questions. Probably more about the cocept.
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Replying to @binarybits
I found this article good when at the time (from writers who are bears on fast takeoff) epoch.ai/publications/do-the… This podcast and Carl Shulman's writing makes the bull case, I think. dwarkesh.com/p/carl-shulman This report and associated web tool is good. coefficientgiving.org/resear…
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This is great thanks.
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