Social Capital 8090 God is in the details.
In the Arena
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A bunch of people from liberal cities around the country moved to Texas.
Texas already has 1084 bills pre-filed for the next session.
Legalize pot
Redistrict
Red flag laws
Property tax increases
Expand eligibility for Medicaid including low-income individuals
New rules on water rights
New rules on subdivisions
Electric utility "monopolies"
Raise state minimum wage to $15/hr
Prohibition of construction of border security measures on state park lands
A "Texas solution" to reforming and addressing issues related to the Medicaid program, including the creation of an alternative program designed to ensure health benefit plan coverage to certain low-income individuals through the private marketplace; requiring a fee.
Reducing ad valorem tax breaks for farmers
Using public funds for lobbying activities
Designating August "Firearm Safety Awareness Month"
The list is massive. Feel free to look at it yourself here:
capitol.texas.gov/Reports/Re…
Voters, in exit polls, have given the 2028 formula for success:
Focus on economic populism that benefits wage earners, put everything you own in a blind trust and publish yearly audits.
Ways to poll voters about issue prioritization, from worst to best:
- How important is issue X to your vote?
- Pick most impt issue from a short list
- Pick most impt from a long list
- Open-ended
@SearchlightInst did it the best way. And AI / data centers was a blip
Correct. Specifically, odds will go up with every data center delay.
And to be clear, this isn’t a commentary on Ant or SpaceX but the mathematical reality if spot prices moves by 50%+ because of the lack of supply and a seller of energized compute has a 90 day termination clause.
Chamath says that if data center supply tightens, SpaceX could end its compute deal with Anthropic on 90 days notice and bring it back at 2x to 3x the price, and Anthropic would have to take it.
"So, whatever revenue you see on SpaceX's balance sheet from Ant could two to 3x and ANT would have no choice except to immediately capitulate and take the higher price. It would also show all of the other hyperscalers that they are very far away from having economic yield that is optimized. And so then it forces them to consider should I be giving it to myself?
Should I be selling it to the other people? It then forces the Neoclouds to take all of this money that they've raised, whether it's debt or equity, and say, "I have two choices, which is to buy as much compute today as I can at whatever price it's available because the other path is assured destruction and bankruptcy for me because I am just out of the game."
And so, what do they do? They will take the last gasp and do whatever they have.
So all the game theory comes down to this one deal and whether Elon decides to rip it because if he rips it, watch out.
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Full video on "All-In Podcast" YouTube channel, (link in comment)
When I’m wrong, I’m wrong. I thought when unemployment was low, GDP was hi, household income rose, it meant everyone was winning.
Not true.
The American economy has decoupled the economic progress of asset owners from wage earners to such a degree that broad based measures of success are no longer reliable measures of progress.
This single issue of asset ownership vs progress of wage earners will be the defining issue in all future elections.
Other issues will get caught in the interpretation (price of eggs, Iran war, price of gas etc) but the candidate that realizes that those are downstream of asset vs wage earners and gets their messaging focused on it will win.
No amount of money spent in an election or gerrymandering will change this outcome.
That is what I learned on Nov3.
I will be paying close attention…
当全世界的聪明人都在为近 4 万亿美元市值灰飞烟灭捶胸顿足时，硅谷风投大佬 Chamath 却掏出放大镜，找到了一个真正决定 AI 巨头生死的命门。
这位硅谷老狐狸抛出了一个暴论：眼下整场 AI 博弈的胜负，全看一单买卖。他指的，正是马斯克的 SpaceX 和 Anthropic 签下的那份算力合同，里面藏着一个“双向 90 天随时解约”的条款。
这事还得从这周的政治海啸说起。美国中期选举共和党遭遇了水门事件以来最惨的溃败，连红了几十年的德州都翻蓝了。州长们听见“数据中心”四个字就像见了瘟神，因为选民们早就受够了：这些庞大的机房除了替科技巨头赚钱，留给当地人的只有昂贵的水电费和噪音。
各地要是真给新数据中心按下暂停键，算力供给立马就得卡脖子。
就在这个节骨眼，硅谷的阶级成分瞬间清晰了。手里有现成地盘和电力的微软、谷歌、Meta、亚马逊，外加马斯克的 SpaceX，成了紧俏的“房东”；而像 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 这种得急需算力来迭代大模型的实验室，说白了，只是群没有房产证的“租客”。
在 Chamath 看来，这直接把马斯克送上了牌桌的主位。
手握着庞大算力，一旦数据中心审批放缓导致算力紧缺，现货价格可能会翻倍甚至涨到三倍。如果现货暴涨让原有长约变成了亏本买卖，SpaceX 随时可能直接动用“提前 90 天解约”的条款撕毁老合同，把算力按现货价重新计价。
到那时候，急需算力续命的 Anthropic 除了当场滑跪、认下翻倍甚至三倍的高价，根本没有第二条路可走。
就在这两天的富达路演上，面对机构把 IPO 估值从 2 万亿美元狠砍到 1.2 万亿的“骨折价”，CEO 达里奥为了保住上市，硬是诚恳地向买方投资者连说了三次“谢谢”。现在就开始赔笑脸了，真等到马斯克拔电源那天，他们更是连谈判的筹码都没有。
更损的是，这一刀要是真捅下去，等于当场给其他“房东”上了一堂生动的现实主义扫盲课，启发它们重新盘算手里的算力到底是留给自己用，还是拿去放高价租。而那些“二房东”们，为了不被踢出局，只能咬碎后槽牙，不计代价地去抢购市面上残存的算力。
听到这儿，旁边的 Jason 赶紧踩了脚刹车。他反驳说，马斯克跟 OpenAI 的奥特曼确实仇深似海，但跟 Anthropic 团队的关系好得像蜜月期，而且 Anthropic 还是他未来搞太空数据中心的好搭档。就算现货涨上天，马斯克也未必会干出直接掀桌子按现货价宰客的事，大家坐下来谈个“中间价”才更像人话。
但 Chamath 显然不相信硅谷的塑料兄弟情：“这跟关系好不好无关，跟谁是好公司坏公司也无关。这就是一张算账的表格，表格会直接给出答案。”
在这场近 4 万亿美元灰飞烟灭的魔幻风暴里，所谓的科技宏大叙事，剥开来看依然是最朴素的包租公哲学：只要电表转得够快、现货涨得够狠，再美好的革命友谊，可能也熬不过一张 Excel 表格，和一纸短短 90 天的逐客令。
Pod!!!!!
POD UP: The Besties React to the Midterm Massacre
-- Full Postmortem on the 2026 Midterms
-- Looking Ahead: How to Save Trump 2.0?
-- Market Reaction: $4T Wipeout, Data Center Fears, AI Ban Potential
-- Science Corner: Exponential Time Hypothesis Solved
(0:00) Bestie intros!
(3:37) Midterms postmortem: What led to a generational GOP collapse?
(32:26) How can Trump salvage his presidency?
(53:13) Market reaction: Data center fears, $4T in market cap wiped, AI ban potential
(1:24:21) Science Corner: OpenAI solves the Exponential Time Hypothesis
Also, because it taped early Friday morning, anything that happened since that morning was not covered - not on purpose but because it hadn’t happened yet.
Ie Susie Wiles resignation, Calley Means on Rogan etc.
Episode dropping shortly. It’s in post now…
“— most traffic comes between 9 to 5 when people are at work (using Airbnb as escapism)”
I believe this and other forms of escapism (X, YouTube, games, shopping) are where most of the current productivity gains in AI have gone.
Interesting bits from Brian’s Airbnb earnings call about AI agents and consumer behavior:
— Airbnb gets ~500k bookings a day
— ”very non-material” traffic from Muse/Instinct
— says people *want* to browse: average user looks at dozens of listings and 25+ photos
— 90% of users message the host
— most traffic comes between 9 to 5 when people are at work (using Airbnb as escapism)
— 80% of travels say they like doing their own travel research
“So the difference is we will have laws to protect Texans and we need to stop what we’re doing with data centers until we have those protections.”
This doesn’t sound bullish.
Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa: “It is not that I hate data centers. I hate the way they are taking advantage of Texas”
Asked whether data centers still have a future in Texas:
HINOJOSA: “Right. Well, we have always been a pro-business state in Texas. But what changes now with me as governor is it has to be a partnership that benefits Texans. And right now what has happened is data centers have moved into mostly rural communities and there are no rules and laws to protect Texans and Texans are being taken advantage of. So the difference is we will have laws to protect Texans and we need to stop what we’re doing with data centers until we have those protections. We can have a strong economy, strong industry and protections for the people of Texas. Those things are not mutually exclusive, and I’ll make sure as governor I lead to ensure that that happens.”
TAPPER: “So you’re not ruling out that data centers will be able to be built in Texas, it’s just you want there to be regulations to protect communities, is that right?”
HINOJOSA: “And that communities have a seat at the table to decide if and how these data centers come into their communities. Texas is like a country. We are so diverse in all the ways. Different communities have different needs. And those communities have to be able to walk away from the table to leverage what they need for their community. So absolutely, we need to make sure they are partners in this effort. And that has always been my position. It is not that I hate data centers. I hate the way they are taking advantage of Texas. And that stops when I’m governor.”
There is a generalization here that is worth considering:
While public markets can be fickle, they can also be exuberant. Being public allows the smart capital allocator to generate a warchest balance sheet during heady times and deploy it during contractions. It’s possible to employ the same tactic as a private company but it is much harder.
The value of being public is access to capital. Simply put. And it turns out capital, when you have a lot of it, solves many problems:
1) employee comp - pay more
2) product - buy defensively
3) R&D - buy proactively
4) competition - subsidize to grow
5) growth - consolidate markets
At the limit, as a tech company, you are always one turn of innovation away from irrelevance. Your cash flows. As a result, are fragile. So being private underprices those cash flows in periods of exuberance and overprices them in periods of meandering or decline.
It’s a hard trade to make work over a long time horizon.
For fun, overly long (slightly bearish?) thoughts on Stripe —
Yeesh, I found out about a couple more personnel churns yesterday. Out of all the best people I worked with at Stripe, roughly half are at Anthropic and the other half are at OAI, with a misc few that fell through the cracks and went to startups. In absolute numbers, the extent to which this is true is actually funny, and a bit unnerving lol.
They're facing a perfect storm:
• Ant/OAI's engineering comp bands are so much higher than Stripe's that they more or less don't even overlap. i.e. The min comp at Ant/OAI is above (or about the same) as Stripe's max.
• Ant/OAI have both announced intent to IPO, providing a clear signal of future liquidity. The Collisons remain adamant in their intent not to IPO, and remind employees and potential hires of this on a regular basis (most recently, Aug 2026 investor letter). With every tender offer they've always been careful to insist that "no future tenders are guaranteed" and they made good on that this year, skipping what'd become a fairly reliable H2 tender.
• Stripe operates in the usual ultra-HCOL cities (SF, NYC), exactly where Ant/OAI also do all their hiring. But Ant/OAI are paying enough for the 52% tax and $7k/mo rent. Stripe isn't.
Stripe's processing payments for both Ant/OAI and as seen by their latest $159B valuation, gotten a major tailwind from that. But as we've seen recently from Ant/OAI who both literally reinvented Git (!!), it cannot underestimated the extent to which they'll rebuild in house. They've got the resources, the technology, and the grit to reinvent anything. I wouldn't be surprised if one or both companies have skunkworks microchip projects for god's sake.
Stripe's always prided itself on A-tier talent, but it's safe to say that their pipeline for that is closed. Is the plan to drop to B-tier/C-tier, or fall back on Europe or Asia? These are the types of conversations exec is having behind closed doors.
Talk about missed opportunity though! If they had IPOed during their fairly clear window (2025, early 2026), the market would have been extremely kind. These guys were the darlings of Silicon Valley and the stock would've been a rocket ship. Now I think I agree with the Collisons — it'd still go well, but they'd be upstaged by more impressive companies. Maybe private is better.
Stripe will be fine — it's still led by two of the best founders in SV, but it's a case study in how an A-tier company that can do no wrong and walks on water can slip to a B-tier company. You either die a hero, or you live long enough to see yourself become Paypal.
I had the pleasure and honor of spending time with Rick Rubin and we recorded this conversation.
NEW EPISODE: “I'm going to zag when everybody zigs. Now the problem is that may mean half the time I'm just going to lose everything. And then you have this critical question: am I okay with that? And most people's answer to that question is no, and then they stay to the conventional path.”-Chamath Palihapitiya, All-In Podcast @chamath
0:00 Chamath Palihapitiya
2:03 Inside the All-In Podcast
8:51 Getting Canceled & What It Taught Him
23:31 Healthcare, Incentives & Prediction Markets
41:11 Trusting Your Intuition & Taste
50:56 Poker, Gambling & Playing Against the Odds
1:05:29 Investing in Fringe Ideas
1:11:21 AI Fears & the Deals He Passed On
1:22:13 Growing Up Buddhist & Finding Peace
1:30:11 How He Uses AI & His Media Diet
1:51:12 Seeing the Future: Bitcoin, Misses & Money
We’re doing a livestream tonight!
The All-In Midterms Livestream happens tonight: Tuesday, Nov 3, 8 PM - 10 PM ET. Watch online on All-In's YouTube, X, or the @Polymarket app.
Follow along: polymarket.us/midterms?dub_i…
#AllInPodcast #Polymarket #Midterms2026 #MidtermsLiveStream
