Data Science @VoteHub | election modeling, maps, and decision desk-ing | 🇺🇸🇨🇦 | exhaustive ideas at https://xitter-newx.xyz-mikolabs.workers.dev/t.co/1MdpxdkLLG
Evanston, IL
Joined August 2023
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The VoteHub Data Science team had an unreal night!
- #1 forecast model by log loss (legacy)
- First decision desk to call TX, OH, ME, MI, and NC
- First decision desk to call the Senate
So proud to work with these people: @juanfwulff @ZacharyDonnini @JordanSchwartz @ElliscbIV
Ryan McComb retweeted
When preparing for election night, I thought Colom would lose, even if by a small margin, early in the night, giving me time to focus on other races.
8 days later, this race has captured the nation’s attention, a testament to how much Democrats outdid everybody’s expectations.
Ryan McComb retweeted
We have not been able to independently verify the 885-vote Mississippi Senate update reported a couple of hours ago that extended Colom's lead over 4,000 votes. The latest Hinds County results PDF we have seen does not include those votes and was released after Circuit Clerk Zack Wallace said all votes had been counted. The county election commission's phone line is not working, and its website is down, making verification difficult.
This does not mean the reported votes are inaccurate, only that we cannot independently confirm them.
Ryan McComb retweeted
I’d be very careful about labeling Texas as red, blue, or even purple. Hispanic dealignment and suburban expansion leave the state primed for drastic swings between elections.
It has all the demographic ingredients to be extremely elastic, as we’ve seen this year.
Ryan McComb retweeted
We appreciate the hard work of election workers across Mississippi, who are facing an unusual level of pressure and attention due to this close election. The slow count and limited information should not be attributed to a lack of effort on their part. They reflect broader shortcomings in the state's reporting system and requirements. Election workers deserve our patience and respect as they complete this process.
Ryan McComb retweeted
@VoteHub We've issued a correction. There were 8,000 absentee ballots, not affidavit ballots. This was a mixup.
Did some back-of-the-napkin math:
Getting an affidavit ballot accepted in Hinds County, MS is less likely than getting into McGill University a.k.a “The Harvard of the North”.
1
26
1,924
Ryan McComb retweeted
Hi! I wrote the story this data is sourced from. This is from the Washington Post, not AJ or raw FEC data; the numbers are taken from this piece.
You can see the top recipients of that money at the link here: washingtonpost.com/elections…
From the @VoteHub Decision Desk: "[~8,000 affidavits] would represent an unusually high number... We treated that figure cautiously... Today, Hinds County reported ~2,400... more consistent with historical patterns and our expectations"
Ryan McComb retweeted
Remember that you don’t call a race when you’re 95% sure about who’s going to win. You call it when you’re 100% sure.
Ryan McComb retweeted
Races in VoteHub’s elections catalog now have an 'Open with' button.
The goal is to make it one place to find any election and open it in the tool you need. Terrain and @Redistricter are rolling out now for Georgia, with more to come.
